My point is that the only people who are going to look at the riots and see Trump as the solution are people who are already committed to Trump.
Everyone else is going to look at the riots and see Trump as the one who caused the riots. Which is not going to make them want to vote for more Trump.
Since duffer bumped this thread due to his bizarre prioritization of concerns I’ll go ahead and post something on topic.
This recent trend is somewhat worrisome…
Anyone with one semi functioning eye can see that it’s not red hat wearing old folks looting, vandalizing, throwing explosives, assaulting people, and burning down buildings and businesses, in a mostly peaceful way. Unjustified civil unrest that’s causing folks to lose lives and livelihoods tends to be counterproductive.
Yeah, keep ignoring the fact that violence increased after the Feds were sent and decreased after the Feds were removed.
Remind me. Did we have a lot of people looting, vandalizing, throwing explosives, assaulting people, and burning down buildings and businesses in 2015?
A lot of people with one or more semi-functioning brain cells would like to go back to the way things were in 2015 and away from the way things are in 2020. And that’s not going to go well for Trump.
IOW, pretty much everyone who doesn’t pay attention to Fox News and/or OANN.
Right on my man.
Biden was cruising to victory well ahead in the polls until the death of George Floyd on May 25. Then the protests started and everyone with common sense turned to the steady hand of Trump.
Is that what you believe? Why?
May 25
August 7
OANN, yes. Fox has started distancing itself from Trump.
Yeah, it was Barrs brownshirts trying to make Portland into the Reichstag fire.
Wow, that is the most amazingly steady and boring graph ever, especially compared to all the volatility in 2016. Kind of puts things in perspective: with the possible exception of Trump’s rally-round-the-flag bump back in March / April, such shifts as there have been are tiny.
I feel like 2020 may go down in history as the most blandly predictable election ever, despite all the big dramatic events going on around it. Honestly, if you had asked me to guess the most likely 2020 scenario in mid-November of 2016, I probably would have had no trouble coming up with something along the lines of “Trump is never a popular president, a bunch of people run against him, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the clear top two and Biden eventually gets the nomination, Biden easily takes the lead against Trump and it’s not particularly close.”
What exactly is this? One poll? An aggregate of polls? Is there a reason the two parties are named rather than Biden and Trump specifically?
In any event, the race is certain to tighten between now and November, if it isn’t already. Take a breath and hang in there.
It seems people are practically barred from uttering this around here, but yeah, I have thought the same.
I’ve felt like Trump could conceivably win with an approval rating in the 40% range, but it would extremely difficult - a lot of things would have to go right for him if he were truly that unpopular. Anything below 40% and I find it hard to believe he wins with anything short of a coup.
If he can somehow recover to 45%, then Trump’s chances of winning the EC go up considerably. The closer he gets to 45%, the better his chances.
It’s my robot that tracks the PredictIt market: Which party will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?. The robot also makes an adjustment to debias for favorite-longshot bias.
I brought it up in post #8 in this thread.
Ever since Trump was elected, his approval rating has stayed remarkably steady. It never went down like I would like, but it never went up like I’d feared. The only thing that made it fall was COVID-19, which is directly affecting many of his supporters (mainly older urban and suburban conservatives, I imagine). The trend for Biden is a very slow decline in support. He went from being 9 to 10 points ahead to being 7.8 points ahead. (I am talking about polling averages, so I don’t include outliers like polls showing Biden leading by 11 to 15 points.)
I’m comparing this to the two most recent British elections. In both cases the Conservatives held power (a slim majority the first time, a minority that was close to being a majority the second time). Each time the Conservatives lead by a hefty amount at the beginning of the election, and in each case Conservative support dropped. The first time the Conservative PM screwed up, which at least partially explains her loss of support, but the second time the new Conservative PM dropped from a 20 point lead to a 10 point lead without doing anything more stupid than usual.
I think the difference is partisanship. In the UK, the gulf between left and right is smaller than in the US. They don’t hate on each other; it took a seismic issue like Brexit to really start the spewing of lies and anger.
The number of persuadables in the US is smaller. It’s a little worrying that Trump seems to be winning some persuadables (or Biden is losing some); while a drop in support of 2-3 per cent means little, it means more than that many persuadables are being lost.
I don’t know what Trump is doing right, or what Biden is doing wrong, but as long as COVID-19 kills so many people per day, I doubt either candidate can do much to change their level of support.
Whatever Biden lost he’ll probably recover and then lose again. The closest that Trump has come in terms of the polling average (using RCP polling averages) is about 4 points - and this is going back to last year.
Trump will not win the popular vote - we can pretty much write him off. The question is whether Trump can somehow either get to 45% or knock Biden down to 45-47%. If the answer is no, then it’s a matter of how close to 45% each candidate is, and whether Trump can steal the election using barely constitutional means.
‘Protesters tried to kill me:’ Video shows shot fired outside home of Wauwatosa Officer Mensah
Well, at least now you know of one.
Oh sure, lots of people have been. The number is significant less than the 1600000 covid deaths, however.
Suranyi’s point is that he, personally, didnt know of any.
I’ve posted before that the slogan/battle cry “Defund the police” isn’t necessarily a problem for the Dems in 2020, but that rioting and escalation of street confrontations definitely could be.
As DrDeth has posted before (and I agree), Trump and his allies want a reason to get even more heavy handed with their police and national security presence. But beyond that, rioting could lead to civil rights fatigue and even contempt.
This latest round of riots are deeply worrying both substantively and for the election.
It suggests that big cities are now unable or unwilling to control political violence which can erupt any time. Not only do these riots cause enormous direct damage to the cities they will have a long-term effect of discouraging investment and weakening the tax base at a time when cities are already being crippled by the pandemic.
Politically I have believed that Biden is relatively immune to attacks on law and order and Trump has such little credibility that he is poorly placed to go on the offensive. But there are limits and if the riots keep happening week after week till Election day, don’t be surprised if a bunch of moderate whites end up deciding that Trump is the lesser evil after all.
The race is already tightening and Trump’s approval numbers have edged upwards. It’s still a tough election for him but if he improves by just another couple of points he will be within striking distance of pulling another upset.