WWII - As of VE Day, does anyone know how long government and military officials expected it to take to defeat Japan?

Actually, the idea behind the firebombing was generated because the jet streams above Japan prevented the bombers from aiming their bombs anywhere close to the factories as the winds would cause the bombs to drift.

If the bombers went with jet streams, the apparent ground speed was too fast for the bombsights and they would overshoot their targets. When they were first trying to bomb the aircraft factories in Kawasaki and Yokohama, they would wind up dropping the bombs in Tokyo Bay, where the locals were joking that the US strategy was to starve the population by killing the fish.

Going against the jet streams put the planes too slow and vulnerable to AA fire.

The eventually came up with the idea of firebombing at night, where the B-29s could fly considerably lower than during daytime raids and avoid AA fire. They were flying at 5,000 to 9,000 ft, which was a difficult altitude for the Japanese AA. The Japanese night fighters were ineffective so they were able to remove their tail guns to allow the B-29s to carry more bombs.

Lead bombers would drop larger 100-lb napalm bombs to start fires for guidance and then the rest of the planes would drop their cluster bombs , which with 38 six-pound M-49 bomblets. The USAAF build replicas of Japanese homes at Dugway Proving Grounds in Utah to test the effectiveness of the bomblets.

Japanese homes were made of wood, crowded together and often stacked two or three deep from the roads, especially in the shitamachi, older sections of the cities. (I’ve posted a number of times about the experiences of my ex-wife’s parents, who were children living in different areas of Tokyo.)

It’s clear from the targets of the bombing campaign that they were not limiting themselves to housing around industrial, but rather were trying to burn Japan down to the ground.

The results speak for themselves. They were so effective, they were running out of targets by August, 1945.

The Allies never promised that the emperor wouldn’t be touched as a condition of surrender. The Potsdam Declaration included a pledge that – after a period of Allied occupation – the Japanese people would be free to choose their own form of government. This maybe implied that the Japanese people could keep the imperial institution if they so choose. However, the Allies made no guarantee as to the fate of Hirohito himself. It wasn’t until the American occupation was well underway that the decision was made that Hirohito would be retained.

Really informative post — thanks.

(FWIW, I write from Tokyo, vacationing with family, and we all agree that everyone we have encountered is wonderfully polite, patient, and generous.)

I wonder if that would have worked out like the Battle of Britain & the Luftwaffe.

A more likely analogy would have been the Battle of the Atlantic with a whole lot more subs and no convoys.

Japan was staring starvation in the face by mid-1945. Allied subs were running out of targets on the usual sea routes and having to get closer to the Japanese islands to find cargo ships to attack. In addition to firebombing raids, B-29s were used to lay minefields in coastal waters, and were remarkably effective in that role.

While populations are resilient in the face of bombing campaigns, the effect of a diet of 1000 calories a day for an extended time would have been devastating.

Yeah. Nothing like BoB. More like Iraq’s Highway of Death.

Japan could not defend at all and USAAF’s forces got bigger and more capable by the day.

As said above, aerial bombing was really inefficient in terms of actual useful wreckage achieved per ton dropped.

But the pacing limit on that destruction would simply be the the USA’s ability to manufacture bombs & airplane parts.