I think that little atoll was more valuable to Japan than to the US.
Look at a map. With constant scouting (I get the irony of that) and planes ready to attack Japan would, literally, control the center of the Pacific ocean.
To be clear, I still do not think Japan would prevail but Midway would have helped them get on longer.
And yet the Japanese hunkered down on a couple of comparatively useless Aleutian islands (part of the overall Midway operation), which offered no real strategic benefit and were also a pain to resupply.
Look at a map and you can see the different value of those positions.
Specialized landing craft that got the marines up to the beach (hopefully) safely. And provided a little fire support.
Going to toot my horn here, since the wargaming angle has been brought up.
I am currently putting the finishing touches on a Pacific Theatre scenario for the wargame Strategic Command, likely I’ll release it (an advanced beta, likely will be some bugs to squash during playtesting) within the next week or so. Start date will be December 7 1941; I’ll likely release 2 other versions, one with an October 1941 start date, and another with a more robust Japanese Navy.
To a radius of what? And under what conditions of resupply? An “unsinkable aircraft carrier” that can’t fuel planes or maintain complex machinery isn’t much of an aircraft carrier. You seem to be very selective when you concern yourself of matters of logistics and sustainment. On the one hand, you are incredulous that Enterprise and Hornet could have posed a formidable obstacle to surface ships approaching Midway without air cover (to say nothing of the aviation assets Midway itself maintained—the very ones you are sure would have been a thorn in the US’s side had Midway been lost to the Japanese), on the other you seem to think nothing of Japan maintaining not only a garrison, but a substantial land-based air presence on Midway.
I mean, which is it? Is Midway an unsinkable aircraft carrier that would be incredibly difficult for the US to retake, or is it a target that Japanese surface ships and a few thousand grunts deploying in glorified whaleboats without air support could have taken against entrenched marines, all the airpower the island could muster and maintain, and a pair of (albeit weary) CVNs and their surviving aviation assets combined?
Every reason you might give for why Midway would be so valuable for the Japanese would, if taken as correct for the sake of argument, be all the more reason why Japan shouldn’t have been able to take it in the first place. After all, it was like an unsinkable aircraft carrier in America’s possession. From there the US could control a big part of the Pacific…
Or is that only something the Japanese could do? 
2000 miles. Easily able to overfly Hawaii.
And, as I noted above, Midway is 2500 miles from Japan and 1500 miles from Hawaii. A thousand miles is a big difference but in both cases you need ships to support the island. That is about three days more time on a ship from Japan than a ship from Hawaii. If the ship is coming from the US west coast then it is even longer than it is for Japan to supply.
Japanese would have reconnaissance over Hawaii and be able to see what is coming and going. No small thing. They could interdict ships coming within range so the US needs to steer clear of the island.
In short, no way the US leaves Midway in Japanese hands. The US would need to retake it.
That’s not how maritime reconnaissance works. All flying back and forth between Hawaii (which you acknowledge is outside fighter escort range for round trips between Hawaii and Midway, and I’m happy to take that as an absolute) gets you is shot down over or near Hawaii. As far as patrolling around Midway, such as to put your vision of controlling a large chunk of the pacific into practice, reconnaissance is not simply an out and back thing. Because even an aircraft in flight can only see so far and still provide meaningful surveillance. They will fly some kind of pattern that will have their effective radius for maritime patrol from Midway much less than their actual round trip flying distance.
And, as I noted above, Midway is 2500 miles from Japan and 1500 miles from Hawaii. A thousand miles is a big difference but in both cases you need ships to support the island. That is about three days more time on a ship from Japan than a ship from Hawaii. If the ship is coming from the US west coast then it is even longer than it is for Japan to supply.
It’s not about how long it takes the ship to get there, it’s this problem of how we already know, for a fact, that Japan struggled to maintain its remote island outposts. c.f. Wake Island.
Japanese would have reconnaissance over Hawaii and be able to see what is coming and going. No small thing. They could interdict ships coming within range so the US needs to steer clear of the island.
Again. Maritime patrol aircraft. Flying without escort. Over and around a US stronghold with massed airpower available. And radar, no less. That is not a winning strategy.
In short, no way the US leaves Midway in Japanese hands. The US would need to retake it.
I’m still not sure how Japan gets possession of Midway in the first place. Because I still struggle to wrap my head around how on the one hand Midway could be such a valuable base for control of the surrounding area, serving as a base for reconnaissance and anti-shipping missions, and yet be so easy for Japanese surface ships to take without their own defensive counter-air capability.
We noted above reconnaissance planes being sent by both sides to scout. Know what you never hear about? Reconnaissance planes being shot down. US aircraft carriers had radar and fighters and yet never shot down a Japanese recon plane.
Doubtless it happened but it seemed a rare thing.
Wrong. You’re assuming that what you haven’t heard of, never happened.
And how do you reconcile “never shot down” with “doubtless it happened”?
Ok…how many recon planes were shot down in the Battle of Midway?
Why do you ask? You said it never happened.
Yup. Prove me wrong.
You made the claim:
Yeah.
If you think that is a bogus claim for the Battle of Midway prove me wrong.
Cool!
Please PM me about this when it is done. I’d like to check it out.
The IJN lost 2 recon planes to carrier fighters at Midway. This is pretty typical. Read about the other carrier battles before you make another dumb claim like this. Then you’ll have a cite if someone calls you on your claim.
Cite?
And two out of how many?
And did the recon planes manage to spot stuff and radio home before being shot down (read: succeed in their job)?
You still haven’t addressed how Japan keeps the island supplied. We could do it from the West Coast because, except for a couple of days in 1942, there weren’t any enemy forces within 1000+ miles of the island. If it was in Japanese possession, that wouldn’t be so. They couldn’t supply Wake throughout the war, and we abandoned it. Midway would see daily aerial patrols and subs scouting the area both coming and going to their patrol zones. Take out a few supply ships and nothing will be flying from Midway if it doesn’t run on sea water.
Who says Japan needs to go nuts defending it? They could try but they do not have to.
Just taking it and plopping a garrison there would delay the US by a few months. Sending a few supply ships is no biggie and Japan gains time to consolidate what they have taken in the Pacific making things more difficult for the US.