http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?ContentBlockID=a028f991-3ff2-4fbd-acb0-09ae4010a498&
The Da Vinci Project team has announced its first launch just two days after Space Ship 1 makes its first (prize qulaifying) launch.
Burt plans to launch a second time Oct 4, but as the article says bad WX or a mechanical problem could put DaVinci ahead.
Still think SS1 is the frontrunner, but it is no longer 99% odds of it winning.
Brian