Well here, let’s say that we both agree that the Bible makes a case for the Israeli people worshiping more than one god at the same time, which it does do. It also paints the portrait for Yahweh to fight his way through into becoming the single remaining deity.
Now, the two theories are that:
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Yahweh was a (fictional) storm deity among a pantheon of other deities, that evolved over time, taking on aspects of the other deities, until emerging as the sole deity. Then, this progression was rewritten for, largely political reasons, to portray it as that the other gods were false and Yahweh had never been among their number.
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Yahweh was a (real) creation deity who revealed himself to Moses and the Jewish people via a series of massive miracles and spectacles, and so doing proved that all of the other deities which were believed and had caused similar miracles before other peoples were simple fictions or liars. He was the only -real- deity, or at least the only one worthy of worship since he is the only one who created the world, and the only one who doesn’t intend to lead them towards a life of sin.
To evaluate the likelihood of these two theories, we’ll consider them on the following points:
A) Plausibility.
B) Archaeological data (scarce as it may be).
C) Whether expected outcomes occur(ed).
To do the evaluation then:
1A) Plausible. For instance, can deities evolve over time? If we look at (randomly) Apollo from the Grecian pantheon, we see that he started out as a plague/disease god but eventually became a healing deity with sidelines as a god of music and victory. Can new deities overtake older ones? Several examples are given on pages 337 and 338 of this book (Wars Among the Gods), showing a similar example where the old gods are quite literally demonized after the affair is done. Do humans write their gods for political and/or self-serving reasons? The existence of ethnic religions makes a strong case this. Certainly we can’t all be special.
1B) As Mr. Dever’s book shows, the various people and towns and whatnot that were supposedly slaughtered and ransacked (respectively) do not appear to have even existed during the ages that they are meant to have. They existed as contemporaries with the Biblical authors in the ~8th century BCE. Given that those events are supposed to have occurred something like 500-700 years previous, and involved an unfeasibly high number of people (~10 million) surviving in a land that appears to have been unable to support anything but the barest nomads, it all seems rather unlikely that we’re dealing with an actual historic record when it comes to the Exodus and the conquest of Canaan.
1C) If Yahweh adapted and evolved over time, we would expect to see the trappings of older, “foreign” deities associated with him. We would see him referred to using the same epithets and descriptions as older deities (like, those formerly ascribed to El). We would expect to see him performing similar feats as other deities (for instance, fighting a leviathan that represents chaos). We would expect to see similarities between rituals and worship (like idolizing a bull as a representation of El/Yahweh). We would expect a regional interest, possibly centered on a particular place of interest (Mt. Sinai for Yahweh, Mt. Olympus for the Greek gods). We might expect the deity to be inextricably linked with a certain group of people (Yahweh with the Jews, Greek pantheon with the Greeks, Shinto pantheon with the Japanese, etc.). We would expect the deity to be unable to provide specific knowledge that would be inaccessible to the people of that time and place (that big body of land across the Atlantic, Darwinian evolution, etc.) These are precisely what we see.
2A) Implausible. There’s any other number of creation gods. El being just one of them, and of course all (or at least all that I know of) have creation mythologies even if they don’t have an individual deity which did all the work. There’s no obvious reason to prefer Yahweh over other deities/pantheons given that they all share equal traits and visible output. And so far no has been able to conclusively prove that magic, miracles, nor deities exist. And it seems very unlikely that all those other gods were demonic influences, as the Bible has it, given that the Chinese and Japanese, and plenty of the native peoples of the Americas lived equally sinful/sinless lives as the Jews. It also seems odd that a deity which commanded the genocide of the Canaanite people would be all that concerned with freedom from sin.
2B) So far there is no archaeological evidence to support things like the Exodus and the conquest of Canaan (overview available in Mr. Dever’s book above). The genocide of an entire people, stretching across the entire area of Israel/Canaan, leaving no mark seems implausible. Yes, the archaeological record is imperfect, and so possibly the evidence just hasn’t been found yet, but overall it seems better to bet with the evidence we currently have.
2C) Overall, what we would expect is consistency. We wouldn’t expect the names of old gods ending up as demons (Baal/Beelzebub) or aids to Yahweh (Rasheph). We wouldn’t expect people who had seen vast, impressive miracles with their own eyes and then told “Worship no idols!” to turn around and worship a golden calf the very next day. We wouldn’t expect the learned king of the Jewish people to set up asherah poles around the temple. We wouldn’t expect the deity to prescribe meaningless rituals and dietary restrictions. We wouldn’t expect him to be unaware of the history of the universe. Unfortunately…