The Turkish military incursion into Syria has just commenced. I may think Erdogan is fascist strongman, but he, unlike another more proximate fascist demagogue, is clever.
By striking now to seize territory when no US ally is going to actively assist it in the region, he will get the land he wants while at the same time saddling Saudi Arabia with a new concern and make Russia a more important player, thereby bringing the US back in, but now in a less stable environment making its sustained presence more certain (and Turkey’s strategic value to the US even greater).
Trump is right about one thing: Military involvement in the ME is a massive drain of blood and money with no predictable outcome. Let other nations bleed blood and money. But Trump even gets this wrong. Trump is not a fascist and he is basically apolitical. He is driven by his narcissism to create a grand legacy for himself by solving great world problems. His solutions are simplistic and he is driven by emotion so obviously he is bound to fail. But his instincts are correct in this instance to remove the USA from Syria. I am willing to bet my vast fortune that regardless of what Trump directs, US intelligence assets are directing weapons and intelligence to the Kurds behind his back.
I don’t have to give Erdogan credit. It may be true that he convinced Trump to make a weak decision that would not seem to help the US. There is a good article now on foreignaffairs.com that discusses the implications. Although one does not want to have troops abroad, this small deployment accomplished a lot of goals at lower costs than the irredeemable loss of goodwill and probable instability.
Even if this is true, I’m sure our former allies the Kurds much preferred the previous situation, where they were not getting slaughtered, to the current one, where they’re getting slaughtered with a slight chance of fighting back.
I’m of the opinion that Erdogan offered Trump a bribe on his phone call (probably business favors for him in Istanbul) if Trump pulled US troops out.
So Trump did, and now Erdogan knows he has Trump by the balls because he probably recorded the call. So now Turkey is intimidating US forces in Syria, letting them know if they don’t leave they’ll be targeted.
I hope we have legit investigations into Trump after he is removed from office (hopefully by losing in 2020) because Trump seems to be doing whatever any nation that flatters or bribes him tells him to do no matter whether it hurts US interests or not.
fortune that regardless of what Trump directs, US intelligence assets are directing weapons and intelligence to the Kurds behind his back.