Trump has shown that you can get away with openly breaking laws - if all the other Republicans support you.
It’s that last bit that will be the problem for NewTrump. If I’m vying to be the NewTrump, and someone else is also vying to be NewTrump, why would I, a venal and vile creature, pass up an opportunity to knock that person down? I’ll be shocked, saddened, and appalled that such a man would do such a thing! We must hold him accountable, or this great nation will fall into ruin!
You’re right that Trump will never be able to become a dictator. He’s not smart enough to outmaneuver the inevitable rivals.
But that doesn’t rule out the rise of a NewTrump. Plenty of people have maneuvered their way past rivals to form a dictatorship. Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Saddam, Amin, Kim, etc all had rivals early in the careers - but they didn’t have any later in their careers.
My hypothesis is that all of Trump’s negative qualities - lack of discipline, erratic behavior, vulgarity, inconsistency, even the open lies, are positives, not negatives, for his supporters. Any potential replacement who lacks these qualities will not be as successful.
Trump 2028!
It would be exhausting to have to hear about his every vile and stupid utterance for another four years but another defeat worse than the previous one could accelerate a new era of moderately progressive governance.
Trump spent decades building his persona. Some nobody reading a bunch of canned material is not going to have the same impact.
People on the right could say that Obama “broke the code” and we’d have a flood of black office holders since a percentage would vote for a black “no matter what.” That didn’t happen either.
MAGA and Trumpism has had a hard time holding a coalition together. He doesn’t seem to have any coattails or any method of deisgnating an heir that he respects.
Frankly W was a more successful politician.
Plus any new person is better off carving out their own message. Even Trump can’t maintain the same level of excitement, his crowds are dwindling. A new person will likely have their own direction that is far different from Trump.
But I certainly expect to see more of these posts, that a mastermind can simply recite canned material and get whatever he wants.
I agree he’s exhausting, but I want the GOP to wear the albatross that is Trumpism around their necks the party is nothing but a smoking crater.
Here’s another prediction. Trump could find himself having an unexpected role in the establishment of the new regime.
Let’s say Trump gets re-elected. The Republicans start working on Project 2025 and begin purging the government of people who aren’t loyal to the Republicans. Plenty of Americans are unhappy but what do you do when it’s the government itself that’s subverting the government?
Move ahead a few years and there’s hope that the upcoming election will get the Republicans out of power and a Democratic President and Congress can start working on rebuilding democracy and civil rights.
The Republicans tell Trump it’s now his time. Trump calls forth his maga supporters and declares he is establishing a dictatorship. The magas go wild in the streets. Trump sits back and waits for the post-2025 government to declare its loyalty to him.
The Republicans whisper in the ears of the people they have placed in charge of the military, the police, and government agencies. And then Trump is appalled when top Republican leaders address the nation and say, “We are shocked - shocked we tell you - at what Trump is doing. Who could have seen this coming? All Americans must now unite together to save our country from this horrible man.”
What are the rest of us going to do? Declare our support for Trump? No, we’ll back the Republican-led forces who are now fighting Trump.
So the military and the police start shooting the magas. And the Republican-led government gives itself a few “temporary” powers to deal with the emergency. Others will question why it’s taking so long as election day passes. But eventually the Republicans will declare that they have successfully driven Trump to flee the country. And they will end martial law and go back to holding elections as soon as it’s safe to do so at some unspecified point in the future.
“you’re going to miss Trump when he’s gone”
I am enthusiastically, enthusiastically willing to take this risk.
If Trump is really going to try to establish a dictatorship, there’s going to be more than just the Republicans opposing him.
Plus Trump would be the laziest dictator ever. He basically wants to be given the job.
As the others said, Trump has some sort of charisma that other Republicans just can’t seem to catch the magic of.
But I agree with the OP, that if a genuine fascist wanted to take over America, the path and the recipe has been made well known by now. Picture someone like Tom Cotton, but not as nasty on the outside. Someone with a long and honorable military service, maybe a war hero, who has a quick tongue and really can cite many, many examples of white people, men, Christians and conservatives facing persecution, discrimination, unfair treatment or whatnot at the drop of a hat. If such a guy gets elected, he now knows fully well how to manipulate the levers of power once in office.
I’d also add that there is no reason why a fascist cannot and should not support things like universal healthcare, higher taxes on the rich, and things that many economic progressives would support. Those things aren’t incompatible with fascism. He could win some of the left votes.
That’s my point. If re-elected, Trump would go along with Republican plans to build a base for a dictatorship because he imagines he would be the one the Republicans will appoint as dictator.
I’ll miss trump like I miss the few boils I’ve had. At first they’re just a little red and no problem, then they swell up with pain. Finally is the day when they come to a head and give up the pus and blood. It’s a relief, and also fascinating, but not so fascinating that I’d want another boil. Anyway, I like my boils way more than I ever liked trump.
There’s a Snowball’s chance in hell that would work.
It’s the right not the left that’s attacking democracy in this country. And with good reason; the programs espoused by the left would benefit the majority of Americans. So the left can obtain its goals by democratic means. The right is looking to benefit a small minority. So the right can’t afford to allow real democracy.
As far as the past, as opposed to the future:
Trump: immoral, incompetent, good at sales
Reagan, LBJ: immoral, competent, good at sales
Carter, Hoover: moral, incompetent, bad at sales.
Truman: moral, competent, bad at sales.
Nixon, Wilson: immoral, incompetent, bad at sales
Lincoln, FDR, Ike: moral, competent, good at sales.
So to the OP, we’ve had worse, and maybe will. But there’s no reason not to have the best once again. Make American Presidents Great Again.
That’s not a reassuring example. He said that in 1962.
Sort of like the Tom Lehrer lyric about Germany: “We taught them a lesson in 1918 and they’ve hardly bothered us since then.”
Yeah, I feel like Harris gives a lot of people something to hope for. I have a buddy of mine who’s a very educated, very astute person who does vote often who said “I’m glad that Harris is now the candidate; I couldn’t vote for Biden, and I won’t vote for Trump.” Which left me wondering what his plan for November was, but at least he doesn’t have to figure it out now.
I can’t help but think there are a lot of people who might also feel that way, and Harris gives them something to be excited about.
I think it’s important to remember that Trump is a symptom, not the problem. Vibrant democracies don’t elect fascist game show hosts to be president; they
don’t have openly corrupt Supreme Court justices driving around in RVs the got as a bribe; and they don’t have attempted coups that are supported by almost half the country. Of course what comes after Trump is worse, we’re collapsing.
How can I miss him if he won’t go away?
Donald Trump is the punchline to a practical joke Newt Gingrich and the “New Republicans” (read: old Dixiecrats) have been playing on the country for over thirty years (and following on from Lee Atwater of “N*gg*r, n*gg*r, n*gg*r” infamy and the ‘Southern Strategy” of the GOP). The only surprise is that Republicans thought you couldn’t say the quiet part out loud, and Trump is so brazen and shameless that he showed them they could if they just didn’t apologize for it, which is really the only thing special about Trump. (Well, that and his sexual obsession with his daughter.) The would-be pretenders like Cruz and DeSantis lack both Trump’s ‘charisma’ (such as it is) but also just still seem to have an erg of hesitancy left for just outright saying that they want to be dictators, while Trump says it so loudly and clearly that nobody thinks he’s actually serious. (He is absolutely serious but to distrait and drawn by shiny things to stay on focus.)
The GOP has gone down the path of authoritarianism and nascent theocratic fascism, and they’ve found that it works pretty well at the state level even if they have to couch their policies in shrouded language at the national level. When Trump finally kicks the KFC bucket for good, they’re not just going to revert back to “The Party of Lincoln” (which they haven’t been since 1960). They might or might not moderate the tone a little bit a bit as demagoguery loses the luster without a good salesman but they are going to remain a party with substantial far-right elements and theocratic leanings for the foreseeable future, mostly because they’ve alienated or forcibly converted moderates so thoroughly that they no longer have any other base.
If I’m wrong, and they invite Liz Cheney and Cindy McCain to sing a duet of “As Long As We’ve Got Each Other” opening the Republican National Convention post-Trump, then I’ll eat crow, or at least a crow-shaped pastry. But…I don’t think so.
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