Two opposed scenarios about the GOP’s future (assuming Trump loses in 2024)

Politics & Elections
1

Now that the GOP has put up the worst possible candidate in human history (except perhaps Caligula and Hitler), and still will get at least to a very close race in 2024, I must ask: Won’t their first post-Trump candidate for POTUS look like an angel in comparison? All they need do, I mean, is put up a nominee who isn’t a blatant racist, or a moron, or a colluder with autocrats, or a convicted felon, or a fraudster, or a rapist, or an open violator of the emoluments clause-- or who isn’t all of these (really, not too high a bar)-- and it will be enough to pull in a few more undecided, low information, swing state voters and voila! The presidency is theirs on a silver platter.

Even right-wing lunatics like Ted Cruz or Kari Lake have virtues that Trump doesn’t have (Cruz, raw intelligence; Lake, good health) so won’t these voters compare them to Trump and say “Okay, he/she isn’t so bad/incompetent/felonious/treacherous/rapey/dumb as that guy I voted for/almost voted for in 2016/2020/2024”?

That’s one scary scenario. Another scenario, though, is that the GOP splits into two opposed factions, MAGA and Never-MAGA, who will want nothing to do with the other faction. This one is a kind of dream scenario for Dems, that the GOP will split so badly that it will never cohere again, and they will effectively each get 20 to 25% of the vote if they run as separate parties, and if they join forces there will be a hardcore component in either faction that will refuse to vote for those RINOs/MAGAs who betrayed everything they hold dear.

My second scenario is a leftwinger’s dream, probably too good to be true. I vacillate between contemplating it, and smiling, and contemplating the somewhat greater likelihood of the first scenario being the case.

This second fantasy is every party’s ideal, of course. For decades, I’ve thought that some issue could divide the GOP. rendering it into two irreconcilable minority parties, while the Dems unite all the wings in their party into a single force that wins election after election. But because I’ve had this fantasy for such a long time, I’m inclined to discount it—it’s never come true, never even come close (except to the Dems in 1972), so my first scenario looks like the more probable one. They’ll just go back to what they were, and unite behind some Trump-lite creep, pretending that MAGA never happened.

2

Almost nothing connected with Trump will survive 4 years. A few senators.
The party will try to make Kamala look bad by blocking everything. New campaign will be same old tax cuts and get rid of social security and Medicare.

Nothing new will come out of the GOP. They will lose a lot of congress sooner or later. Presidency…using governors to run…a few times.

3

It may not be new, but Christian Nationalism is on the rise. The Indiana GOP ignored the gubernatorial candidate’s choice for Lt. Governor, and chose a firebrand pastor. He’s insane, and he’ll win - and he’ll go on to grow his base, all because the GOP does “circle the wagons” better than anyone.

4

Yeah, we said that about Bush Jr too. There is always someone worse out there, and every current indication that the right would likely support them handily.

As long as the right-wing media continue to drag their audiences further and further to the right and away from reality, there is no bottom to this hole the country’s fallen into.

5

Here in Canada, it seems the Conservative reaction to an election loss is, “The leader wasn’t awful enough”. They keep nominating worse people until they win.

6

UK too.

7

I don’t want to hijack excessively, but sadly it looks like it is going to work. Canadians eventually vote a party out and the other default party in. And I think Trudeau has enough baggage now that unless he pulls a Biden and steps down (and he won’t), the Liberals are going to be voted out and PP will be PM (ugh). Please let it be a short minority is all I ask.

8

The one upside of a potential Trump win would be a ring side seat for how awful he’ll be, which might just possibly convince some people not to vote for PP. Could you imagine what a Trump presidency with a compliant Canadian PM would be like? Whatever you might think of JT, at least he stood up to Trump on some major issues. I expect that PP will show his belly every chance he gets.

9

I’m sadly resigned to PP getting into 24 Sussex. After what Singh did last week, pulling out of the confidence and supply deal with the Grits, Trudeau looks as feckless as ever. Last week, a photo also emerged of Poilievre grinning in a posed photo with one of the right wing influencers busted for taking Russian money to spread Kremlin talking points. Yay.

But back to the OP, besides the depressing and to a degree horrifying upswing in tRump/GOP support coming from young men, what’s going to keep this incarnation of the Repulicans going a while longer is the entrenched state majorities due to gerrymandering, rightwing judges passing rulings based on their own political whims, and the inability to do anything to fix the electoral college. No matter how low their support goes, numbers-wise, the GOP will always have institutional support to keep them with an unrepresentatively large block of influence, and until that goes away, they won’t see much reason to change tactics.

10

I think the 2nd scenario is more likely, because by the time a normal Republican (think a Liz Cheney-type) has become the GOP nominee, the awfulness of Trump will have faded in memory. So the new Republican won’t be cut slack.

In order for the new Republican to be cut slack, you would have had to see a sudden Trump departure. For instance, if Thomas Crooks had aimed an inch to the right and suddenly Nikki Haley were the nominee.

11

If this was ever going to happen, it would have been in the wake of Jan. 6. But it turned out that there is no “Never-MAGA,” at least none with any strength. The occasional Cheney or Kinzinger can’t move the GOP an inch from its deplorable direction, much less split the party.

This^. And why wouldn’t they continue? It works, and it’s profitable.

MAGA won’t die until and unless Dems win the next 3-4 presidential elections and control both houses of Congree for a decade. And even then the GOP might choose civil war over returning to sanity.

12

I suppose what I’m asking is whether you feel that MAGA is presenting a serious long-term fracture of the GOP or whether it’s a bump in the road that can be reconciled within an election cycle or two. Maybe I can do a poll on this (once I figure out how to do a poll).

13

I agree and sadly I think the future of the USA depends on those wins. Project 2025 is not going away. The Heritage Foundation are feeling very empowered. More so than they have in their entire history. They’ve been involved in politics of course for a long time (all the way back to Reagan with “Mandate for Leadership”) but they now know more so than ever that they can get the Christian Nationalist state they want. I really believe that they just didn’t know how prepared the right was to accepting fascism. Now that they know, if they get somebody else into power it will be a nightmare.

14
  • Is MAGA a bump in the road that can be reconciled in an election cycle or two?
  • Is MAGA going to create a serious long-standing fracture within the GOP?
0 voters

This is what I’m getting at. Has the GOP created a monster here, empowering an authoritarian faction that is anathema to a sizable minority of its members, or do you think they will find a way to reconcile the two factions in the near future?

15

You left off the most obvious option: Is MAGA what the GOP will look like for the foreseeable future?

MAGA can’t be reconciled any time soon, and there’s no remotely equal force within the GOP to split off. We’re stuck with it for at least a generation.

16

Unfortunately, I have to agree with you.

17

Trump will run again in 2028.

18

Posthumously

19

I don’t really think it’s either of those.

Reconciliation will take more than a cycle or two, if it’s even possible. But I can’t really see a schism either, because everyone involved will know that this guarantees Democrat wins for however long the schism lasts (This happened in Canada, when the Reform Party split off from the Progressive Conservative Party. They lost for 13 years after that, and I’m sure the Heritage Foundation remembers this).

I think what you’re going to see is a dysfunctional GOP for a decade and a half, at least, and I have no idea what they’ll look like coming out of that.

20

I appreciate that, and I share your view. But I’m hoping to see what people’s long term vision for the GOP is now. I think they have shit the bed, and the question is do they get new sheets? A new bed? Sleep in the mess they’ve made?