It’s been decade since I last worked on an industrial plant, but I am sure some of the machinery back then was older than me. And sticker last forever. I see an unsurprising lack of foresight and analysis on the part of those employees, but I guess the level of embarrassment or even cringe those stickers provoke depends on what happens after Trump with the current Republican Party. And not to hijack the other thread, I ask here for your opinions.
In my opinion everything will depend on what happens in november: Trump winning and Trump losing are two radically different scenarios, both for the country and for the party. Then there is the matter with his indictments: Trump in jail (a certain outcome IMO if Trump loses the election, even if it takes another year) or Trump exonerated by judges or not investigated anymore by the Dept. of Justice (which will happen if he wins) are two different legacies. And then there is the matter of his mortality: many have tried, but nobody has been able to replicate his shtick and drive the people who adore him into trance & frenzy. In fact, all that have tried looked embarrasing while trying. That includes his sons, not only real republican politicians. Others seem to agree:
So what do you think will happen?
I hope P&E is the right forum for this question, but I would not mind it moved to IMHO if this widens the discussion frame. I hope it does not land in the Pit, though. Reading the experiences many of you have in your respective areas in the original thread I can only tell you that everything you write feels very weird from the European perspective.
I expect Trumpism to continue to guide the GOP long after Trump passes from the scene. Trump found so many shortcuts to power and gave his supporters permission to indulge their worst instincts. He will be a model for future Republican politicians and a lodestar for the base.
I expect people to try but very few seem capable of pulling off and leading MAGA long-term like Mr. Trump has. More likely the religious right will be a force like they have been since the 80’s making sure all Americans follow their brand of Christianity.
Trump has one superpower, and that’s his personality. Whenever someone else tries to act like him (DeSantis, Rubio, and Cruz have all tried) it fails miserably. For some reason I cannot explain, Trump is the only one that can be Trump, and that pure Id that Trump is able to be is what attracts his supporters.
In my opinion, the Republican party continues to evolve into the party of the working class, but without Trump is severely weakened at the national level.
Generally unemployable people who make no positive contribution to an economy. Sometimes described as the bottom layer of a capitalist society. May include criminal and mentally unstable people. Some activists consider them “most radical” because they are “most exploited,” but they are un-organizable and more likely to act as paid agents than to have any progressive role in class struggle.
It took them 6 years to recover after Nixon. If Harris wins and has as anemic a term as Carter, they could conceivably find somebody as charismatic as Reagan.
Short term: a dogfight among politicians to win MAGA allegiance as the “true heir” to Trump.
Longer term: MAGA multitudes held together by the Trumpian cult of personality drift away and/or break up into smaller competing groups. The Republican Party eventually slides back into a pale semblance of what it once was, hoping to take advantage of Democratic missteps (of which there inevitably will be many). Eventually a new charismatic figure will emerge to galvanize the worst instincts of GOP adherents.
Considering that ‘populism’ is a global phenomenon affecting many different countries around the world, I’d say the underlying authoritarian anti-intellectual impulses aren’t going away any time soon. Someone perhaps less charismatic but more committed will be standing in wait to pick up the torch. I’d say there’s a good chance the GOP may never return to normality again. Hopefully a conservative yet reasonable party will emerge from the ashes at some point.
I don’t believe Republicans are done with racism or authoritarianism even when Dear Leader takes the escalator down to Satan’s lair. They will continue to be the party of uneducated whites who perceive themselves as perpetual victims. They will continue to dominate the south and rural areas. Others will try to pick up the torch of evil, but none will have the charisma of DJT. When the MAGA schtick loses its luster, they’ll try something else. As far as being a normal loyal opposition party or a party that can goven responsibly, no way- ever.
Quite so. Sure, “Trumpism” does not have real ideological substance, it’s just “Trump socks it to those I want socked”. But nationalist populism has been and will continue to be a major force and you can’t blame ambitious politicians and parties for trying to tap into it.
Now, in its current incarnation it has coincided with the rise of politicians who are not really there to govern but for the upjumped social-media-influencer clout. Which has led to dog-who-caught-the-car scenarios where once they are in power they flail about making things worse for themselves.
But that is why then it’s folks like Heritage and Project 2025 who step in with their own “intellectual blueprint” to sell to putative Republican winners of the future as “hey, y’know ‘your’ supposed platform that nobody can say what it really is? This is what you should do about it”.They will still be a problem.
I disagree. I think the lumpen proletariat are still partly disengaged and only partly on the MAGA train. I mentioned in the thread about living round Trump supporters that there are some people in my neighborhood that fly various Trump flags. These people aren’t lumpen proletariat. They are high earning blue collar workers. Oil field and refinery workers, traditional blue collar workers that own their businesses like plumbers and electricians, police officers, and in more rural areas the ranchers and farmers. Those are Trump’s base.
I don’t think this base will break apart when Trump is no longer with us. But it will change a little in character to suit the personality of whoever inherits the Trump mantle. Since I have no idea who that will be, I won’t venture to guess in exactly what way the base will change.
I have a feeling that they’ll just sort of fall back on early 2000s-style GOP politics once the MAGA stuff dies out after Trump’s gone. They don’t really have anything else to go on without their demagogue driving them, and the party bigwigs will fall back on that, since that’s where most of their career has been.
I do think there’ll be a vocal minority of MAGA/Tea Party types being obnoxious, but I agree that it won’t be the main thrust of the party going forward.
As far as the base goes, most of them will vote blue regardless of whatever the actual national ideology is; that’s the blessing and curse of the way they’ve been groomed.
I never said it would fully go away, just “somewhat”, as I think it will partially die without that one (can’t believe I’m gonna say this) apparently charismatic leader. At this point nobody seems able to duplicate it, and he’s not the type to foster an heir apparent.
But the spirit of MAGA is, I suspect, with us forever.
I suspect when Trump is gone, the religious right will turn to a demagogue whose moral flaws are not so demonstrable. Not as a candidate, but as a kingmaker that the GOP needs to court to get their people elected. Conservatives like order and despite the gains they have achieved through Trump, big business and organized religion have never been comfortable with the kind of chaos that he generates.
I think that’s because what Trump is, he is authentically, as much as anything about him can be called “authentic”. He’s always been like this. The imitators are all quite clearly imitating Trump, and that’s painfully obvious to even the Republican base. It’s like watching karaoke. It’s hilarious if it’s your friends up there embarrassing themselves, but it’s painfully cringe-worthy if it’s anyone else, especially if they’re taking themselves seriously.
As much as Trump elevates the worst aspects of the Republicans, there’s something about his personality that no one else on that side has been able to replicate. Without him, I would expect the GOP to more aggressively embrace the ‘Christian’ approach (which really seems to be the inspiration for parts of Project 2025 as well - I guess they’re planning ahead).
I’m not sure. Yeah, nobody’s been able to replicate it while he’s been doing it, what with him soaking up the spotlight as the guy who’s already, y’know, doing it; someone who’d fall short of the real thing (and so there’s no point while the real thing is right there) might be able to step into the role once he’s out of the picture.
My guess/hope is that the party completely falls apart into a gaggle of competing cults of personality. Maybe at some point the “normal” Republicans will form a new moderate party and attract votes from the more conservative Democrats.
Also possible that the MAGAs could become a regional party based in the South and Plains.
My theory is that Republicans in Congress and other leading members of the party deny ever having supported Trump or Trumpism while moving back to traditional Republicanism.
Unfortunately I feel the main takeaway the Republicans will get from Donald Trump is that they can be a lot more open about breaking laws than they realized.