That’s a problem for a lot of people. They can’t just run away 3 days in advance. Unlike Katrina there was no clear flight path or level of intensity. It’s a 4, it’s a 3, it’s a 4 again, no it’s a 3 again.
You make that sound like there was a great deal of uncertainty, which there really wasn’t.
If a hurricane is bouncing between Categories 3 and 4, that just means that the sustained winds are right around 130 mph, give or take a little, and the Category gets defined by what they measure on each trip through the storm. A Cat 3 storm with 128 mph winds is not appreciably weaker than a Cat 4 storm with 132 mph winds.
Similarly, the predicted track was either straight over Florida, or up the east coast. Either one is not terrific, and AFAIK wouldn’t have required any different evacuation choices.
Not clear which specific storm you’re discussing. There are plenty of times down here where whether we’re gonna get whacked or bypassed is real uncertain. As well as which of the few available directions is safest.
There is also the issue that the “expected value” of a 5% probable hit by a cat 4 is about the same as of a 75% likelihood hit of a cat 1. The swath to be evacced by a cat 4 at the 5% contour is a lot more land and potentially a lot more people than the evac swath of a cat 1 at the 75% contour. Especially at 3 and 4 days prior when you need to start moving to get any decent fraction of the populace out.
Other parts of the country may have simpler decisions. Or not.
No… what I was trying to say is that if a storm is flipping between Cat 3 and Cat 4, it’s clearly straddling that 130 mph line, and any decisions to evacuate should be based on that, not on the arbitrary category.
And in general, with the size of your typical hurricane, it’s not like a tornado which can entirely miss you and yet pass relatively close. For example, Hurricane Nicole is projected to go over Bermuda on Thursday. It could miss, but it’ll still affect the island regardless, so residents would be smart to plan as if it’ll hit them dead-center.
The storm track was along the coast as predicted. If you lived in the interior of the state the winds were substantially less.
In Hawaii, it’s not that easy to evacuate. Maybe fly to another island not in the path, if you can get a flight in time. But we were here for Hurricane Iniki in 1992 – another 9/11 event; what is it about that date? – and everyone just hunkers down.
After helping out a friend clear out their house after Katrina I think I’d just try and stick around. However in the quiet times I’d be working on ways to make my house less prone to flooding or wind damage. For example by getting rid of carpeting and having good storm shutters.
But that brings up a whole new issue of can one make a home basically flood proof? Can doors be sealed?