God forbid they provide oversight! Precious Trump and his cabinet would never do anything that might come close to violating the law… how dare anyone think about looking into it?
Your lack of doubt is utterly convincing!
As someone at 538 said, based on yesterday’s results the Democratic presidential candidate would be crazy not to campaign aggressively for Texas in 2020.
Bottom line is that Dems really overplayed their hand with Kavanaugh. While they were doing it, I thought they were overplaying. Democratic turnout was already going to be sky high and was near peak. Taking a stand on Kavanaugh was not going to bring out more Democratic voters. What you wanted to do was suppress Republican turnout. Giving them a rallying point was idiocy. The Republican talking point was 'If you give Democrats control, they’re going to start a McCarthy style “witch hunt” of Trump and his supporters. So giving them what could easily be portrayed as a McCarthy style “witch hunt” of a Trump nominee was perhaps the dumbest thing you could do. And to what end?
Kavanaugh was a done deal and I said it as soon as he was nominated. There was nearly a zero chance Republicans were going to let him fall. The drama and the theater just made it something that they could talk about. Who is the Republican base? White men. So attacking a white man when you don’t have a completely solid case makes them all feel under attack and that’s what gets them to the polls. Kavanaugh is what cost them the Senate and at least some of the House. Current Democratic leadership needs to change. We can bash the Clintons for all of their mistakes, but they knew how to play the game. Current Dem leadership is playing checkers at a chess match. Geeze, even Trump wants Pelosi as House Majority leader because they know she’s divisive and someone they can use as a foil to rile their base in 2020. Dems are also going to give her to them, because it doesn’t matter how right the Dems are, you can always count on them to do the stupid thing.
Well, I’m not wishing for bad things, but I just have this feeling like the economic expansion is going to hit a wall at some point, and we’re going to have some kind of contraction. That could bear heavily in the 2020 elections, but who knows.
But based on Republicans’ strong showing in the Senate is that even if a Dem wins the White House in 2020, and Dems hold onto the House, the Senate is pretty much getting to the point of being beyond Dems’ reach in even a good year. That’s sad.
The problem with defining what happened is that there is such a huge, huge difference between how Americans voted and who wins.
In terms of how people actually voted, their preference was extremely clear; they wanted the Democratic Party to run the country. There is no argument to the contrary. A clear majority of Americans voted Democratic.
However, that does not translate to an equivalent level of power, because the system is set up to return Republican winners; the Senate is structured to give more seats to small, poor, Republican states, the House is gerrymandered to deliver more Republicans than merited, and voter suppression programs allow Republican voters to vote more than Democratic voters to an extent that it changes results. Additionally, 2018 was odd in that the mix of Senate seats being decided made it nearly impossible for the Democrats to do well.
Saying the Democrats did a bad job or “overplayed their hand on Kavanaugh” is ridiculous. They earned a bigger share of the vote than in any midterm election since at least 2006 and, depending how the numbers play out, maybe in decades; there is nothing they can presently do about the fact that the game is rigged. It’s as if an NFL team was being expected to win despite the league spotting their opponents seven points at the start of every game; if that team could end up finishing the season 9-7, you wouldn’t say they were just okay, you’d say they did great.
Puhleez. Trump is still unpopular with the booming Obama economy. Nobody wants the economy to crash, nor is it necessary to defeat Trump in 2020. He is only president because of a wildly unpopular Democratic candidate. That’s all.
Of course, the economy will be sinking in the next two years because it’s Donny and daddy isn’t around anymore to fix everything.
I think a lot of those results are due to Beto being on the ballot. Anecdotes do not equal data, but I know several people who voted only because of Beto and who would otherwise have stayed home if he wasn’t running. If Democrats can gain a temporary advantage due the the help of a particularly charismatic politician that’s a good thing, but not something we can rely on in the next election.
It was a wave. I agree with Harry Enten:
I don’t think you get the Dems winning unexpectedly in SC and OK House races in anything less than a wave.
Leave that up to Mueller. Look, even Ed Rendell said you ought to legislate not investigate. You have been given the chance to prove you can make the country better and lessen our divisions. Trump will be the president over at least the next 2 years. The senate pickup virtually guarantees that. You’re spinning your wheels.
It was a wave here in Michigan. Total replacement of executive Republicans with Dems (Gov, AG, Sec’y of State). Flipped two House seats. Republicans still hold on to control of legislature but that’s due to gerrymandering. The anti-gerrymandering referendum also passed, so enjoy it while you can, pubbies.
That’s nuts. Investigation and oversight are standard procedure for Congress, and even expected. The last 2 years of Congress has abrogated their duty by refusing to do it.
They should (and will) ask for documents and call witnesses. They don’t need to make a giant spectacle of it, but it’s just their duty and due diligence to investigate the possibility of wrongdoing in the executive branch.
The idea that they wouldn’t, when there’s tons of signs of law-breaking, is absolutely insane.
And this doesn’t hinder their ability to legislate at all.
Kind of wavy in Colorado. Dems sweep statewide offices and now control both the state house and senate. My friends in Aurora also booted Mike Coffman.
Cardboard Cory’s days in the senate are numbered. That number is like 800, but that’s still something.
They can and should do both. The problem with leaving it up to Mueller is the possibility that Trump did shady things which may not technically be prosecutable but are still egregiously wrong and the American people deserve to know about. If that’s the case, Mueller won’t be able to tell us about it.
You didn’t read the rest of my post? It’s a bust now, but will net us more in 2020. Similar to how 2016’s huge loss likely netted us the House and specific governorships yesterday.
This isn’t to say yesterday sucked for Dems, but the Wave we were expecting was, imo, a bust. (Except in Michigan! Which was a nice little wave.)
Democrats got around +9% of the vote which corresponds to other wave elections. However, districts are so polarized (and gerrymandered) that +9 doesn’t mean as much when there’s fewer +1 - +8 districts to cover. Regardless, I’m satisfied with the results. I noticed yesterday that the GOP pundits were throwing around fairly ridiculous numbers “Democrats are expecting +60 seats but I don’t think they’ll see it” and now they can all pat themselves on the back and crow about how Democrats “only” got half that mythical number so it was a big failure for them.
I was more pleased to see the results in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania since those were the states that won it for Trump last time.
Who expected? You expected +50 seats in the House, victory in the Senate, flipping every well-contested governor’s race? If so you were insanely over-optimistic :). That was always a remote possibility, but these results are not some major deviation - they are dead on line with most predictions. Some serious failures, some significant wins. But overall it was a reasonably decent night for the Dems, just not a crushing victory.
I wouldn’t call this a wave( unless you go by increased turnout for both parties in a neutral sense ), but calling it a bust is absurd unless only a huge victory counts.
Essentially my opinion. I went trickle. I’d add that it’s a step in the right direction
…but I personally feel the Democratic Party still has some real work to do in the next 2 years with respect to its direction.
I agree that gerrymandering is a problem for the Democrats, but you need more of an analysis than that.
Part of the problem is simply self-sorting. Some amount of that 5% edge leading to parity in representation is due to things like 85% of San Francisco voting for Nancy Pelosi and 60% of North Dakota voting for Kelly Armstrong. Neither district is gerrymandered, but a lot of Democrats’ votes are “wasted” because they are strongly concentrated in cities.
Polarization and self-sorting are likely a larger issue than gerrymandering (and probably harder to solve, too).
It’s a wave, not a tsunami. I knew that last night.
To drill down further I want to know
a) the final tallies (or close enough - wait 2 days),
b) the percentage of the country voting for a Democratic House and the percentage of the country voting for a Democratic Senate,
c) as well as historic comparisons of a) and b).
After that we can discuss gerrymandering, self-sorting, and the legacy of 18th century attempts to protect slave holding via a bicameral legislature.
It was the biggest wave in a generation in the House. 9.4 point win in the popular vote. In the Senate, holy crap was that ugly though. And in governors races it appears there was no national trend. So a very mixed election, although I do think it’s fair for Democrats to call it a wave if they want to. It’s also fair for Republicans to be pretty happy with the results. They may have put the Senate out of reach for 2020, which means even if Trump loses, for the first time in forever Democrats will take power without the Senate. Which I actually think would make for a pretty good government.