Your picks for Oscars not based on the movie

It’s often theorized that Oscars sometimes (or often) go to movies or performances for reasons other than what is on the screen. For instance many believed that Paul Newman winning for the Color of Money was more of a lifetime achievement award than for that performance.

So for the nominees this year make your predictions based on anything except the actual performance. This is easy for me since I’ve only seen Dunkirk out of the movies nominated. Pick in as many or as few categories as you want. There is no need to have a pick for each one.

My first is a twofer. I think because of the Golden Globes snub and #metoo Greta Gerwig will win for best director. Because that bumps out Jordan Peele he will win for screenplay.

For best supporting actor I was thinking Christopher Plummer just because that’s the movie that was in the middle of the Kevin Spacey controversy but he already has one. I’m going with Richard Jenkins because he is the kind of well respected veteran actor that they like to reward in this category. If Plummer didn’t have one on his shelf it would be his.

I’m hoping for Sam Rockwell because he’s brilliant in everything and has long deserved a “big” award. But I can say the same about Richard Jenkins!

I was also thinking that but Rockwell should have many more performances in him.

I think Gary Oldman will win for best actor, partly for never having won previously.

It’s incredible. Before 2012, he’d never even been nominated.

I’ve heard this Winston Churchill movie is only OK, but yes, he could win for his career.

“The Shape of Water” was already a strong contender for Best Picture, but what puts it over the top is all the politically correct boxes it checks off. Female, black, gay and communist protagonists? Check. Taboo sexuality? Check. Director who can claim to be “Hispanic” (though he’s whiter than me)? Check. The only straight white male American character is evil? Bingo.

You have your winner.

I heard rumors that Mark Hamill might get one for The Last Jedi. I think he should get one because Sci-Fi movies rarely ever get Oscars.

Well, Hamill cannot win, since he’s not nominated.

Gary Oldman is a HUGE favourite to win Best Actor, and it’ll be in large part a career award.

I read somewhere, don’t remember where, that Love Story was a terrible movie that didn’t deserve any awards, much less Best Picture (in 1972). The writer postulated that its win was the result of a campaign to award BP to it in order to drive up ticket sales.

I’ve also read that the BP awarded to Return of the King (2004) has been seen by many as essentially a, er, collective BP given to the entire trilogy.

“Love Story” did not win Best Picture. It was nominated - in 1970, not 1972 - but the winner was “Patton.”

I would agree with “Return of the King,” which in my opinion is easily the worst movie to ever win the award.

I haven’t seen it, but I heard that The Greatest Show on Earth is supposed to be the worst Best Picture winner ever. And it won against Singin’ in the Rain and High Noon, both of which are still highly regarded. But according to the Wikipedia article, the win for The Greatest Show on Earth might have been meant as a lifetime achievement award for Cecil B DeMille. Sort of like how the win for The Return of the King was sort of an award for the trilogy as a whole.

I floated a thread about that, but Hamill hasn’t had the screen career that the usual “tip of the hat” nominees have. My rationalle was more based on the series altogether and Luke’s place in the collective imagination, but in this case it looks like the excellent work of the Best Supporting Actor nominees will carry the day.

That, and the SciFi/Horror/Fantasy genres are better represented this time. The leading nominee is an intertext of a 50s Universal series. Another top nominee is a thriller about brain transplants and hypnosis. A comic book adaptation got a screenplay nomination, even. The Academy opened their doors to other genres this year; let’s hope it stays that way. Relevance is good.

You may be right - most people seem to think Love Story was cliched and insipid. (I haven’t seen it.) I’m a little surprised to see it was nominated for Best Picture.

The “campaign” hypothesis may apply to The Alamo (1960) as well. Even most John Wayne fans don’t have a real high regard for it.