He has 13 cards that would likely give him a winner. That is better than 1 in 4. If there is more than 4 times what you need to bet in the pot, you have to go for it.
cool, i’ll bet you at 1 in 4 odds.
neta: of couse if i have any of his outs then his odds get worse,
or i could have nutted it already.
you really should join us as well on thursday.
Hell yeah I’ll take that bet, in a heartbeat. If I miss my draw, I can fold on the river. If I hit it, I could be taking a very big pot. The implied odds are huge.
If you’re recommending, as it seems here, that you should fold a straight flush draw to almost any bet because your opponent “might” have quads or a full house or a higher flush or they “might” have some of your outs, lessening your odds… you’re playing scared and way, way too tight.
Note that I’m not saying the opposite, that you should never lay a 13-outter down; obviously, it depends on the situation, the pot odds, the texture of the board, any read you may have on your opponent, the actual bet, etc., but you seem to be implying that “only” 13 outs should be an auto-fold to almost any bet.
Yes, there are times where you may hit your draw, and still lose, and that’s certainly something to keep in mind, but if you’re playing assuming that’s going to happen and that any bet means they have the nuts, you’re laying way too many winning hands down over your playing time. People bluff in poker. People bet top pair all the way down. Hell, you see people betting bottom pair all the way down.
If you’re only still in at the river with ‘more than that’, then you are way too easy to read, in general. That would be a good book for me to have.
[bump] I’m loving these True Confessions.
Mine is that I probably don’t shift gears often enough. And I hate crappy aces - I think Doyle said something like “There is nothing worse than going broke with A5.”