Thanks for clarifying that, AG.
For foreign language film, I think The Lives of Others (Das Leben der Anderen) should be nominated, and should probably win (since Lust, Caution is not eligible).
(And assuming my understanding is correct about how the release date thing works.)
The Lives of Others won the Oscar last year (since, unlike the other feature film categories, eligibility for the FLF award is dependent, among other things, on the year the film was released in its country of origin).
Well, at least I picked a winner! (Albeit belatedly.) Incredible movie. I didn’t remember that it won last year, and it was only released in these parts this year. (Should have noticed the award on the IMDb page, though.)
Thanks again for the (further) clarification.
Lust, Caution has no chance of a best picture nomination. It got a mixed response from critics and it was no Spider-Man at the box office.
The foreign language rules are way stupid, however. Why does each county get only one choice? What if two classic movies come out of the same country in the same year? Why do they have to be foreign? What about American movies in Spanish such as Maria Full of Grace? Furthermore, unless there has been a change I don’t know about you can only vote in this category if you have seen all the movies. Sounds reasonable enough, but in the past some films have made themselves scarce in an effort to ensure that only people partial to that film would see it and thereby stuffing the ballot box in a manner. Burnt by the Sun, I’m looking at you.
Volver, City of God, Blue, White, Red, The Home and the World? None got nominations. There are many more examples, of course.
Then the critics are an ass. 
The film gets an 8.2 rating over at IMDb.
But I suppose you’re right and that the mixed critical response will mean no nomination.
Irrelevant, of course. 
Essentially, it’s the Academy’s way of leveling the playing field. In the past, the only films that had a chance were the most famous/popular/financially successful nominees, which also yielded some very mixed results ( :cough:AManandaWoman:cough: ). If every foreign film out there was eligible, then it would be impossible for the selection committee members to work their way through all of them. 1 country/1 film at least makes things a bit more manageable (though with 63 submitting countries, it’s still a lot of films to process in a matter of a few weeks).
Of course, this “solution” is fraught with its own problems. What if the best film from a country isn’t the one the country uses to represent itself (like Almodovar’s Talk to Me, which won the screenplay Oscar but didn’t represent Spain that year)? What if a film is of multi-national origins, and can’t be pinned down to a single country of origin (which was the problem with Kieslowski’s color trilogy)? In some way, by making things more “fair”, they become exclusionary in completely different ways. And that’s not to mention the often-inconsistent enforcement of the rules by the Academy, as well as the ability for politically controversial films to be shut out by the country who self-selects their representative.
No good reason, though then something like Passion of the Christ would be eligible as well (consisting of a language that nobody speaks anywhere anymore). Essentially, it’s a matter of volume and the rules narrowing the field being such that any American film is automatically excluded.
This is the smartest requirement, though. Yes, it’s open to some manipulation, but without this rule, the most famous/popular/financially successful film would always win. Probably the biggest problem with this rule is that the only members who can actually attend Academy screenings for all 5 nominees (home DVDs don’t count) tend to skew quite a bit older in age, which means they’re more likely to vote for more conservative and/or sentimental films.
Well, Volver, City of God and Red all did get major Oscar nominations–just not in the FLF category (although City of God was an official submission and didn’t make the final 5 cut). But yeah, like they say about democracy/capitalism–it’s the worst system, except for every other one out there. There aren’t really any easy “solutions” that wouldn’t end up over-complicating things immeasurably (and probably still not yield the kind of results film fans would be hoping for). As screwy as they have things now, opening things up to more films would inevitably end up burying the more obscure films that could most benefit from the attention.
I like reading everyone’s predictions, so thanks for this thread. I’m terrible at predicting nominees, but since this is a free-for-all and things won’t solidify until the critics awards, Golden Globes and Guild awards (the most important when predicting Oscar noms) start coming in, I’m going to throw out a few oddballs.
Amy Adams, Best Actress for Enchanted (you laugh! but just wait!)
Ellen Page, Best Actress for Juno (not that I’ve seen it yet)
Kate Bush’s “Lyra”, Best Original Song, from The Golden Compass
The first two, I don’t really believe, but I do think they’re possibilities. The 3rd I’m fairly optimistic about.
Not that I didn’t enjoy Canada’s entry last year- a film about 1930’s India ; Denys Arcand can’t make a film every year 
I’m a bit surprised no one has mentioned Marion Cotillard, who is pretty much a lock for a Best Actress nomination for her role as Edith Piaf in La vie en rose. If anything is a sure thing, that nomination is a sure thing.
Nicole Kidman and Jennifer Jason Leigh could both be nominated for Margot At The Wedding.
Atonement is getting all kinds of great Awards buzz, which makes me happy. I’m looking forward to it even though I’m sick to death of the preview. I can’t wait for it to open just so I can quit seeing the damned horrible trailer. If I hear “Dear Cecilia, you may be forgiven for thinking me mad…” I’ll scream. (And why on god’s green earth is “Cecilia” pronounced like “Celia”?? That’s a pet name peeve, along with “Marcia” being pronouced like “Marsha”…and speaking of names, the obnoxious little girl in the Atonement trailer is played by an actress named Saoirse Ronan. Saoirse, being a Gaelic name, one of the most fucked-up languages on the planet, is pronounced something like Seer-sha, or Sir-sha, depending on who’s saying it. Saoirse will be playing the murdered girl in Peter Jackson’s version of The Lovely Bones.)
Steve Zahn for Rescue Dawn.
Hot Fuzz for editing and sound editing.
Steve Zahn was good but my only hesitation would be that Rescue Dawn seemed to fly under the radar a bit.
Hot Fuzz is a great call…I hadn’t even thought of that but it certainly deserves it.
Anybody think Zodiac will get any attention?
I saw Southland Tales this afternoon. You can pretty much count it out of, well, everything. I mean, I’m not sorry I saw it, but it’s a giant mess, a huge pile of bong-fueled incoherence.
Re the rest, I’m not sure Michael Clayton will make the cut in the top category; the movie’s good, but it’s too slick, too tidy, I think. It might end up in the Mystic River slot, as classy highbrow entertainment, but it’s a crowded year for quality. It’ll definitely secure some supporting-acting nominations, though, for Tom Wilkinson or Tilda Swinton or both.
Amy Ryan will get a supporting nod for Gone Baby Gone.
Expect Daniel Day Lewis to be named front-runner for Best Actor when There Will Be Blood comes out. The early buzz on the film, and him, is thunderous. Paul Dano will probably be named in the supporting category (and will lose to Javier Bardem).
It’s a long shot. It was released too early in the year and didn’t do all that well financially.
Also add the fact that Michael Clayton’s box office wasn’t all that spectacular. If it had grossed more, it would’ve been a likely nominee for Best Picture. However, since it wasn’t, the most high-profile nominations it will likely get will be Wilkinson, perhaps Swinton, and maybe one for best screenplay. Clooney might also be nominated for Best Actor but only if it looks as though there’s a fallow crop of potential nominees.
I have doubts that even if everything goes right for Sweeney Todd (i.e., good reviews, decent box office, etc.), whether it will get nominated for Best Picture. Despite it’s pedigree as a Tony-winning Sondheim musical, the violence and subject matter of the film would likely put off the more image-conscious and conservative Academy members. Tim Burton might be in the running for Best Director but he’s got to overcome the perception among many that he’s a flake and a lightweight. Sweeney Todd’s best chances are probably in the acting categories where, unless the movie turns out to be an unmitigated disaster, Depp is a potential nominee. Helena Bonham Carter is a question mark since right now it seems equally likely her performance could be nominee-worthy (especially if there’s a fallow crop in the Best Actress category) or turn out to be a major face-plant of career-ending proportions (and I say this as someone who likes HBC). A recent article in Entertainment Weekly about potential Oscar nominees didn’t even include her as a long shot in either the Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress categories. That can either be taken as a sign that the movie is was still too much of an unknown quantity or there’s negative buzz surrounding her performance. Alan Rickman, I think, has a better shot at a Best Supporting Actor nomination (provided of course that the film doesn’t turn out to be a disaster).
Any chance Ratatouille can garner a nomination for Best Picture? I doubt it, but I think it is a shoo-in for Best animated. I think the BA category really makes it difficult for a cartoon to get a BP nod.
I think Charlie Wilson’s War will get a lot of noms (it opens on Christmas Day).
Walloon predicts … that in an upcoming discussion about the Awards Ceremony’s “In Memoriam” section, posters will:
[ul]
[li]Ask about someone who was already honored last year[/li][li]Nominate someone who was known primarily for work in another medium, with only minor film work[/li][li]Say, “I thought he/she died a long time ago.”[/li][/ul]
The Silence of the Lambs swept the top five awards in 1992.
I didn’t say it was impossible (e.g., The Exorcist was also nominated). I was just pointing out that even if the movie turns out to be good, there are still a number of things going against a possible Best Picture nod for Sweeney Todd.
I just saw No Country for Old Men. It joins Into the Wild (among the films I’ve seen) as a lock for a best picture nomination. It will surely get adapted screenplay and direction nominations as well.
(ETA: Lots of good films to choose from this year.)
