My predictions, let me show you them. Let me show you my predictions.
I think No Country for Old Men, Eastern Promises, 3:10 to Yuma, American Gangster, Michael Clayton, and Gone Baby Gone all have a chance of getting nominated for Best Film.
Viggo Mortensen should get nominated for Best Actor in Eastern Promises (even if only for the naked bathroom scene) and Javier Bardem should net Best Supporting Actor for No Country (even if only for the godawful haircut).
I’m about eighty percent certain Ratatouille will get Best Animated Feature (it depends how well *Beowulf *ends up doing). Elizabeth will probably walk away with Best Costumes, and Lust, Caution may end up getting the Best Foreign Film, and I really really hope that Stardust gets nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay.
Other major films likely to be possible contenders yet to be released:Atonement, There Will Be Blood, Charlie Wilson’s War, The Savages, Juno, The Diving Bell & the Butterfly, The Kite Runner, Beowulf, I’m Not There, The Great Debaters, Youth without Youth, The Bucket List, Margot at the Wedding, Grace is Gone, The Golden Compass.
It’s still early, but Into the Wild is a shoe-in for a best picture nomination. I haven’t seen a better film this year, and I’ve seen a lot of the well-reviewed ones.
Lust, Caution was a stunning film, too, and will surely win for best foreign language film.
I’ve seen the ones I’ve bolded, and agree that they deserve consideration. I thought Michael Clayton was the best of those, but still doesn’t come close to Into the Wild.
I want to see a few others before I pass judgment, though. As Archive Guy points out, there are a lot of good films yet to be released.
I just saw Control last night. The cinematography was very impressive, and would get a nomination if I were picking. Maybe a couple of acting nominations, too, but I wouldn’t nominate it for best picture.
Jimmy Carter: The Man from Plains deserves strong consideration for Best Documentary.
Just saw No Country for Old Men and it could be up for five or six:
Picture
Supporting Actor (Bardem), and outside shot for Kelly Macdonald as well.
Editing
Cinematography
Adapted Screenplay
I saw American Gangster and I am less enthusiastic about that as I was No Country but it seems to be worth of Best Picture and I’m sure Denzel will get his obligatory oscar nod.
Michael Clayton seems like a lock at this point. I thought it was quite good. Clooney might be nominated.
Other possibilities for Best Picture that I’ve seen:
Gone Baby Gone - not comparable to No Country but still quite good Eastern Promises - kind of cold, but well made. 3:10 to Yuma - suspect it’ll be forgotten about by award time. The Wind that Shakes the Barley - it’s been a while since I’ve seen it but I did love it. It’s an outside shot as I don’t expect many have seen it.
Possibilities that have buzz that I haven’t seen:
Beowulf - frankly I think it looks terrible. I guess we’ll soon see. Southland Tales - reviews are mediocre at this point so I’m inclined to doubt it. Charlie Wilsons War - looks good, don’t know anyone that have seen it though. Atonement - My friends have seen it and they say it’s terrific. Not the type of performances that will get oscar nods (albeit still good performances. There Will Be Blood - A friend of mine has seen it and he says it is incredible and Daniel Day Lewis gives an all time performance.
I’m less sold on some others ArchiveGuy mentioned but I suppose we’ll soon see.
I haven’t seen either, but I’ve heard **Tommy Lee Jones ** is a possible double nominee this year for both *The Valley of Eleh * and No Country for Old Men. Anyone here able to back that up?
I wish **Samantha Morton ** would get nominated for Control, she was amazing. I don’t think she will as the movie isn’t getting enough attention, but since she’s been nominated twice before I wouldnt’ be suprised to see her name up there.
Tommy Lee Jones was in fact quite good in both and In the Valley of Elah completely slipped my mind. I suppose it’s a possibility but I think In the Valley of Elah is a better shot for him as people might say he has played a character much like Ed Tom Bell before (I disagree, this character was far deeper).
That’s the reason I didn’t mention him under No Country.
I can tell by your tone that this is some sort of really bad movie and you are joking around, but at the same time, the link you gave has no synopsis and so I’m wondering what this movie is exactly? It seems to have Pauly Shore in it, so that gives me a clue, but I want more details!
I just saw Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead this weekend.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sidney Lumet WIN best Director this year, if only because he’s been nominated several times, and hasn’t won, and this might be his last best shot.
That, and, it’s a very good movie, and very well directed.
I could see Phillip Seymour Hoffman getting a best actor nomination, and Ethan Hawke, and possibly Albert Finney getting supporting actor nominations.
The scene of PSH trashing his house is hilarious, sad, gripping, and perfect.
He’s extremely worthy for Valley, but the main problem is that (a) the film tanked at the BO, and (b) it’s an extremely competitive year for Lead Actors. In addition to the obvious contenders (Depp, Clooney, Washington, Hoffman), he has some previous winners (Nicholson, Hanks, del Toro, Daniel Day Lewis) and some promising Academy newbies (James McAvoy, Emile Hirsch, Mathieu Amalric, John Cusack) that could prove quite formidable.
The main problem with a nomination for the Coen bros. film (by all accounts, I haven’t seen it yet), is that he’s completely overshadowed by Javier Bardem, who might be considered a front-runner in the Supporting category (though never-nominated Hal Holbrook may rake in the not-to-be-underestimated old-timer vote).
Wow. Stunningly stupid on the part of the Oscar panel.
In that case, Lust, Caution should be nominated for Best Picture.
I just got back from seeing Lars and the Real Girl, which has garnered a lot of good reviews. Fine film, though comedies rarely get nominations. At the very least, it should get maybe some acting or screenplay nominations. I thought the best (and most subtle) performance in the film was from Paul Schneider as the brother of the title character. Alas, subtlety rarely gets rewarded by the Academy.
Forgot a couple from earlier in the year that are sure to get some Oscar attention.
First, there’s Rescue Dawn, Werner Herzog’s Vietnam war picture. Steve Zahn deserves an acting nomination for that one. Christian Bale, too. And the cinematography is incredible. I would give Herzog a directing nomination if it were up to me.
And then there’s Away From Her, also deserving of consideration. Julie Christie deserves an acting nomination, at the very least.
(Incidentally, what are the Academy’s rules about release dates? Both of these films played at festivals in 2006, but didn’t see theatrical release until 2007.)
For the regular feature film categories (separate from the more specified rules in the foreign language and documentary categories), the only real requirement is that the film play for one full week in a commercial theater in Los Angeles during the calendar year (and not had an airing on TV beforehand). Festivals don’t count.
