Your reaction to the current (Feb 2018) fallling stock market

In my case, it’s 5 or 6 years, and I feel the same way.

I’m close to retirement, maybe a year or so* and I’m prepared for a drop. I’m actually hoping it turns into a serious recession because I’m ready to buy, and I’d prefer to work through the next one rather than live on withdrawals. My (unprovable) belief is that we’re gonna have one, and sooner is better than later.

So I’m cheering each drop in the Dow that appears on my phone app.
*18 months, or whenever management pisses me off enough.

Yesterday SPY closed below $264. It hasn’t been this low since … December!

I didn’t even know about the dip until I saw this thread just now. Couldn’t you have PM’ed me two weeks ago? I’ve lost a bundle just in JNJ, though its fall is due to concerns about their carcinogenic(?) baby powder rather than general sentiment.

Miscellaneous comments:
[ul][li] During the eight years from Obama’s inauguration to Trump’s inauguration, the S&P500 index rose 180% (almost 13% annually). Europe’s FTSE (VGK) rose just 50% (5% annually) and VPL about the same. This is all in dollar terms, but I think an apples-to-apples comparison is reasonable, the Vanguard funds are dollar-denominated and available to all.[/li][li] Between Trump’s inauguration and today SPY, VGK, VPY have moved almost in lock-step (though S&P 500 has underperformed slightly). The day-to-day lock-step is almost uncanny; even the falls on Friday and Monday were matched almost exactly. [/li][li] “Dollar-denominated.” A year ago the Dollar was worth 0.95€. A few days ago it dropped below 0.80€. A 15% decline in the value of the Dollar (compared to Euro) under Trump. Not as bad a drop as BitCoin’s, but it is key to proper assessment.[/li][li] Is the dollar weakness good or bad? I don’t know and neither do our leaders. In the past, Secretaries of the Treasury have proudly touted a strong Dollar as good for America and good for the World. Mnuchin’s take? He’s not sure if he wants a weak dollar or a strong dollar. Neither is Trump.[/li][li] Bond yields continue to rise. Recall again that the long-bond interest soared 0.5% just on that distant Election Week. Exxon and Chevron have both been borrowing on the bond markets to pay their dividends. It’s hard to be too sanguine, with the tax cut card already played. What’s next? The inflation card? Not Infrastructure stimulus, I think — at this point, we’d have to hope Mexico pays for it — the U.S. cannot.[/li][li] The Nikkei 225 fell 4.7% on Tuesday. FTSE recovered in the morning but is still down 1.8% on the day.[/li][li] So … all eyes turn to the panicked millionaires of the U.S.A. The market may open near Monday’s close, but what happens then? Do we empty our savings accounts to buy at bargain prices? Or get out before things get bloody?[/li][li] The weird security known as XIV (that’s VIX inverted :eek: ) fell 80% yesterday. Maybe XIV is a good buy now? :)[/li][/ul]

I know anecdote is not the singular of data, but let’s start with you! Are you buying big-time today at this tremendous opportunity? (Or did you already go “all in” on fourth street?)

I’m not.

It may rain this afternoon. That would be surprising because it hasn’t rained for several days and as a result I expected it would never rain again.

Too many TLAs

I sold all my NDQ shares two weeks ago because the level felt precipitous. That was half my portfolio. The other half is day-trading stocks which I am looking at now. I’ll take it on a day to day basis. If the market keep dropping then I will try to sell my most speculative stocks. Probably hold on to the rest though because they were all fundamentally sound IMHO. If it’s just a correction then things will turn around before summer.

Apart from annual portfolio rebalancing in the first week of January - which so far has always meant selling some mutual fund shares to buy stocks - we’ve never cashed out any of our investments, certainly not in response to what the market is doing. The daily news of stock market movements is little more than entertainment to me; all the pants-wetting by the media (and those who buy into it) is a bit ridiculous. Looking forward to seeing what happens today.

I’m a holder, with just a small number of funds. I review my choices and weighting every quarter and re-balance, but I haven’t switched out of any fund in over 5 years (nothing has convinced me to). So, while this turbulence stinks, I won’t be doing anything in reaction to it.

I’m not changing anything. I put a certain amount every month into an index fund no matter the day-to-day performance, as I’ve done for almost 20 years, and plan to continue until I retire.

You too! Ironically I had to Google to learn what TLA is. :slight_smile:

SPY, VGK and VPL are simply broad averages of large-company stock prices in the U.S., Europe and Asia-Pacific respectively. (Two of them are Vanguard funds.) It’s convenient to add them to graphs at Finance.Google to glimpse stock prices generally around the world.

If you’re not planning to retire for another 20+ years and you’re putting money in your 401k, then you should be cheering for the drop.

Because the idea is “Buy Low, Sell High”, and right now, you’re buying high.

I posted above, the market would need to crater 30% to be at ‘average’ P/E (Price to Earnings) ratios from the last 150 years.

I sold off my entire portfolio in the last year for reasons I won’t get into, but I am sitting on 5 figures cash in my account waiting for an actual bargain to cross my screen.

This is the reason that dollar cost averaging (regular, fixed amount investing - like a 401k) is so powerful - when the market is down you’re buying more, when the market is up you’re buying less. I still have an 8-10 year retirement window, so I’m doing exactly nothing different.

Something like "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! I’M RUINED!!!

I added about 35% to my SPYG position. Assuming it recovers, I got it at a 4% discount (like most everything else at the moment.

What I’m hemming and hawing about right now is SBUX. I bought it around 58 or 59 so it’s been down since then. Glancing at the chart it looks like it may have recovered from yesterday, but this may have been (still could be?) a good time to buy it on sale and help recover some of those losses…on the assumption that it will make it’s way back up.

Wasn’t it really cold last week? What global warming??? :smiley:

As for the stock market, I have my windows open just in case I need to jump. I’m selling everything, buying gold, and moving to Idaho.

I am also in the “waiting for the bottom so I can buy” boat.

Judging by the number of people reporting the same position, there’s a lot of people sitting on cash and trying to time the market. Interesting to see if the injection of investment slows or stops the crash.

My only contact with the stock market was via my mutual funds, and I got out of them last year as I retired and moved the money to Annuities for retirement income. So no need to worry unless the crisis gets so big that the annuity companies go bust; and if that happens, it’ll probably be the least of anyone’s worries…

Well, since my plan is to to buy and hold for the next 15-20 years than I am doing exactly that.

Haven’t paid all that much attention – I’ve been gradually shifting retirement savings from stocks as the time approaches, but it’s still far too far away for short-term fluctuations to matter very much.

I was a bit amused by this whiplash moment of news coverage.