All things considered, “never”. Hitler should have been an abortus.
Yes, read “The Wages of Destruction:The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy”-by Adam Tooze (Viking, NY, 2006). Pages 507-508 detail the meeting in late November 1941. Hitler was told (in no uncertain terms) that the German economy could not sustain the war in the east.
The problem there is two fold - one suing for peace with Stalin was a no no. Neither dictator could survive it, and any peace would have been temporary at best.
But more fundamentally, the entire Nazi economic model was flawed at a much deeper level than simply a calculation of the war in the East. The idea of simply spending with no concept of where the money would come from would inevitably lead to collapse - it only worked short term by the suppression of labor, and promises for the future. The German economy could only be sustained by successful war - the economic rape of conquered nations. Hitler had to go on expanding and go on fighting, or Germany would collapse. But by going on fighting, the demand for resources increased. Unsustainable on every level.
Of course if you take out Mr. H before the game begins, he’ll only be replaced with someone just as rapacious, only competent.* Considering how far a complete jellybrain got, do you really want to chance a do-over with someone who actually knows what they’re doing?
*read Making History by Stephen Fry. Really, it’s a good book.
Instead of conquering Poland and western Europe, I’d go straight for the USSR. If that means going through Poland, then I make nice to Poland. After all, I’m after lebensraum. Britain and America will tacitly back me, or at least not get in the way. I’ll leave the Baltic States alone they’re not worth the trouble and hate the Soviets anyway. And once I’ve conquered the Soviet Union, I can trade directly with my friends the Japanese from Vladivostok, thus obviating the need for Pearl Harbour.
As a sop to the British, I might install my old friend the Duke of Windsor (ex Edward VIII) as a puppet Tsar of Russia. And I can build my death camps safely on the eastern side of the Urals.
You are correct. What I learned from Tooze’s book, was how perilous the Reich’s position was in 1941. By dint of tremendous effort, the Germans were able to increase steel product (employing inferior ores and importing ore from Sweden)-but this was not enough. By late 1941, Germany’s stockpiles of copper and rubber were run down-and the question of food supplies arose. The decision to strip the Ukraine of its wheat reserves was considered-but that would have starved the local population (needed for war production) to death.
So Germany faced slow starvation and depletion of resources.
Hitler HAD to win in 1941-otherwise he would lose…only a question of time.
I recall reading about something that turned up in the Russian archives in the 90s. Supposedly, Stalin made a truce offer to Hitler soon after the invasion – basically offered him the Ukraine in exchange for cessation of hostilities. Hitler rejected it, thinking he could have it all.
If that’s true, Hitler should have taken that deal.
At that point it probably looked like a bad deal, even assuming this actually happened (I’ve never heard of it). Things were going really well for the Germans until the winter when the Russians pulled like 40 divisions out of Siberia for their counter attack. Even then, the Germans still probably thought that by the next campaign season they’d have the Russians finished off.
I certainly wouldn’t have trusted Stalin once hostilities started. He would only have been using that deal to by time to build a bigger hammer. Better to have not ventured into Russia until Germany had completely absorbed and consolidated their European conquests into their new empire, and either finished off the UK or forced them to the peace table. Spend a decade or so digesting what they had taken, building up their military and logistics (covertly), possibly absorbing Frances overseas empire and getting all they could out of the raw materials available from that, and then go after Russia, who, I think, would have been substantially weakened at that point (Stalin being Stalin) and possibly falling apart. And go after ONLY Russia…one front war where they could fully concentrate on Russia and only Russia, and have all their logistics ducks in a row, all their combat power focused on the goal of taking them out (possibly having assassins in place to take out Stalin, if he was still kicking around by then).
Or, just leave Russia the hell alone, even better yet, since a German empire stretching over most of Western Europe wouldn’t really need to conquer Russia…and, frankly, a Russia without the crucible of WWII wouldn’t be capable of conquering a greater German empire, or even being a real threat. Especially if no one bothered developing atomic bombs, or at least no one clued the Russian in on said development.
-XT
I’m sure you’re right. Hitler thought he could get it all. You’re also correct that Stalin was not to be trusted. But at the very least, German forces could have wintered in peace, and prepared to go to war again the next spring.
Leaving Russia alone entirely was, IMO, not an option for Hitler, hr needed vast new territories for what would amount to a Germanic breeding program. And I don’t think he wanted to slaughter the entire populations of western European countries to make room for it. He wanted the east for space and for slaves to be worked until death.
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I immediately have the device transported to a secret location, and the SS soldiers who witnessed the event are then killed. Nobody outside the most trusted advisors must find out about this.
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The extent of the losses suffered by Germany both in manpower and territory staggers me, as does my future death in a ditch. I decide, without mentioning its source, to discuss the contents of the manual in a secret meeting with my staff. I immediately have Bormann personally create a copy of the book, with politically damaging passages removed, and especially all future mentions of myself past 1939 replaced with Röhm’s name to shift the blame.
Attending will be the heads of the German Troop Office: Werner von Blomberg, of course, also General Wilhelm Adam, the head of the army, each with one aide, as will, at my personal request, a young Colonel by the name of Heinz Guderian and his commander, General Oswald Lutz. From the Reichsluftfahrtministerium there’s Göring, of course, who also duals as head of the newly founded Gestapo. I’ve also asked Emil Becker, head of the Weapons Testing Office, to attend. Aside from the military high command, the Reichsbank president, Herr Dr. Hjalmar Schacht, as well as Himmler and Heydrich are present. Himmler and Heydrich spend some time joking about the manner of the latter’s future assassination in Prague. As an extraordinary measure, I have asked that Herr Professor Gerhard Hoffmann, a nuclear physicist, attend part of the discussion.
I am of course blacklisting General Ludwig Beck, a pity, since the man is competent and loyal, and will not even consider murdering me for about 10 more years. Röhm is obviously not invited or even told about the meeting.
- Several items dominated the ensuing discussion:
a) The atom bomb – Professor Hoffman, in attendance at this time, was visibly excited by the news on the atom bomb and was quick to state that it was very likely physically possible to build such a bomb, if something called “chain fission reaction” was indeed obtainable. Unfortunately, the history books was thin on technical details regarding the device. I personally instructed the professor to select a team of ideologically sound scientists and explore the concept in utter secrecy, and assured him of my full support. If the manual is correct, we have 6 years before anyone else even realizes that splitting the atom is even possible.
After the excited doc Hoffman’s departure, the Reichsbank president, Dr. Schacht pointed out that we cannot possibly match the resources the Americans threw at the project, especially if we wish to keep it secret from the rest of the world. That seems obvious enough, but the bomb is such a glorious project that I cannot resist. Imagine Moscow, New York, London, Paris all erased from the face of the Earth in one glorious night, each with but one bomb! Entire armies wiped out in the blink of an eye! We would be unstoppable! Funds must be found. Utter secrecy must be maintained.
While it might take time and considerable effort to build such an awesome device, one thing we can do is to prevent the fleeing of many of our physicists, traitors who helped the Americans build the device. Himmler volunteered that we establish a prison research facility where these men should be held and put to work. The Jew Einstein who persuaded that cripple, Roosevelt, to build the bomb, has already fled last year, but Göring assures me that even at Princeton, he is not outside the reach of the Gestapo. I tasked Heydrich to compile a list of American, French and British so called nuclear physicists, including all individuals mentioned in the book starting with that other Jew, Oppenheimer, and make sure that all are liquidated in short order.
b) My generals, and young Guderian were aghast at the loss of millions of troops in Russia to faulty supply chains. I have tasked them with developing superior logistics chains and proper wartime production mobilization plans at home. If necessary, we will depopulate entire areas to remove disruptive partisan activity. Also stressed in terms of logistics is the need to secure an oil resource beyond the Romanian oilfields. Our tanks cannot sit idly for lack of fuel. Perhaps after taking out France, we will focus on the Middle East and bring Turkey into our sphere.
c) I have decided that we must disguise our true intentions concerning the Slavs until after the Soviets are destroyed. In light of our dire needs, our plans for these subhumans can wait until after the war. Also, we will coordinate our attack on Russia with the Japanese, who in the alternate world proved more competent than I had ever expected them to be.
d) The military information must be improved. Radar technology, electronics and cryptography will now be an essential part of our preparation for the war effort – and the best part is that we can probably do this without ever revealing the military nature of these programs.
e) Finally, the development of our submarine fleet will be greatly expanded, at the expense of all other naval operations. Similarly, the Anglo-American success in the air war indicates the need for long range bombers and fighter escorts. How we can achieve this under the watchful eye of Europe is a question that we will have to deal with. Today, France could invade us and win, and just because they did not do so in the alternate history it doesn’t mean that they would not if sufficiently alarmed by our armaments programs. Göring’s Gestapo will have to clamp down really hard. This time, when war comes, we will be ready.
As evidenced above, I think a forewarned Hitler with access to a detailed 20th century history book would be a fearsome enemy.
Amazing post, Aferim. I love counterfactuals written in a first-person style. A lot of things, like the mindset of the narrator, are easier to get through that way, and it’s much more entertaining.