No doubt there are some who are baseline healthy individuals who are not of a high risk group who think that they should go to the doctor now with any sniffle because it might be swine flu. Certainly many parents who are calling me, apologetically, but worried now when usually they’d have had no problem with a usually healthy seven year old with 102 and a cough for 2 or 3 days who is alert active and drinking well. And I can’t blame them. Given the conflicting information they hear it’s more amazing that even more are not confused and concerned.
And there is only a small chance (we think) of this being a 1918 type event that kills off large segments of the globe’s populus. Nonzero but small. (That being the possibility of a reassortment with an H5N1 avian bug, keeping H1N1’s communicability and taking on H5N1’s significantly greater virulence, leading to a more deadly wave later on.)
But a nonevent? There is no chance of that. If you are under 50 this is a bad bug and significantly more likely to get you ill and significantly ill than seasonal bugs do. A majority will escape significant morbidity and total mortality may even not be any higher than in typical seasons, but morbidity and mortality under 50 will be significantly higher than most years. That is already a given.
Recognizing that is not panicking. It is just not being an idiot.
Odds are we won’t all die in a bloody froth . It’s just that I see some ppl posting that seem overly casual and display no reasoning for their conclusion. They give every indication that informed thought has not taken place short of, “I’ve ever seen such a thing happen, therefore it won’t ever happen”, never mind that they are dealing with a mostly new (to ppl alive today)virus in which their own limited experience no longer necessarily applies.
EVERY nasty thing that comes down the pike, you see ppl saying that we’re all upset about nothing, even if all you are advocating is watchful waiting.
Also, I hate false dichotomies. Understand that just because I think handwaving by the uninformed is a bad idea (and tiresome in it’s predictability), it doesn’t mean I believe ZOMYGOD PANICK!!! I very much agree with you that panic helps no one. I advocate professionals following the situation closely. The world isn’t in the midst of a massive trench war, and we know more about hygiene and disease now, so those things are in our favor.
I should apologize for my overly nasty tone in my post above, though I still support the thoughts within. Just because this is The Pit, it doesn’t mean I need to act like that gratuitously.
Just want to point out that this week of reporting (information released today but reflecting information a week old) had twice as many pediatric deaths as any week since the CDC has been collecting weekly pediatric mortality figures. Half as many as occur in some entire flu seasons. Again, still a smallish number compared to the size of the country, but deaths that need not occur.
Funny, if terrorists were killing this many American kids each week, how do you think the public would respond? More calmly? How many died in 9-11 compared to how many are dieing now?
Well, last time I looked up the figures (yesterday) the US death toll from H1N1 was 1,070 - or slightly more than a third of the number killed on 9/11. I hope that is assistance in calibrating the panic meter.
And as of today the report is 2,916 deaths presumed to be from H1N1 just since August 30th … and rising by a greater amount each week. 9-11 was 2,976. I hope that is of assistance in calibrating the concern meter.
I just hope the creeping crud I had this week was my “dose” of H1N1 so I’m well over it (I’m allergic to the vaccine AND in a high-risk group… but fortunately when I do get flu I don’t seem to get it really bad).
I don’t have an exact number available but about the same as normally dies of seasonal influenza during that period, which if not zero is pretty close.
Why?
Will we have a regular flu season after this peaks? No one knows yet. My WAG is that it depends on what happens in China and when H1N1 peaks here. China seems to be getting a smattering of seasonal influenzas in their mix along with H1N1. That is important because China is from whence our seasonal bug usually comes from. If they somehow get both and H1N1 is dieing down here by January (when our seasonal influenza season usually starts up for real) then we could get a full regular season too. The timing matters because it seems that usually H1N1 pushes other bugs off the stage if its “on” full tilt, but if it is died down by January then seasonal can come out for its act.
As for the media - the media will report on anything they think they can get people excited about. Fear. Sex. Celebrity. You might die if you don’t do X; you might die if you do!!! It is independent of the facts. But that is important to remember - independent of, not per se opposite of. It is not a false statement just because they say it any more than it is a true statement just because they say it.
Have you read the thread? Seasonal flu outbreaks usually don’t occur until around January. It is doubtful that there are any seasonal flu deaths at this point in the year.
One good friend of mine is being more than slightly ridiculous with the precautions. Yes, she is pregnant, and is a) more nervous than usual about health issues, and b) in a risk group. She has therefore decided that avoiding all public contact outside of work is a good idea, including hanging out with her friends on the weekends.
Where does she work, you may ask? She is a high school teacher. One might think she would be more likely to come into contact with the virus at work than, oh, just about anywhere else.
. It’s just that I see some ppl posting that seem overly casual and display no reasoning for their conclusion. They give every indication that informed thought has not taken place short of, “I’ve ever seen such a thing happen, therefore it won’t ever happen”, never mind that they are dealing with a mostly new (to ppl alive today)virus in which their own limited experience no longer necessarily applies.