NFL Predictions - Week 1 (The Reckoning)

In My Humble Opinion
1

First a quick comment on the Thursday night game.

It was certainly a fun one to watch. Oakland was in it until the end and all my friends had different Pats players on our FFL teams. Branch was mine, I was pleased. Personally I took a couple things out of it. If you drafted Kerry Collins as your Fantasy QB after drinking the Kool-Aid regarding the new system, you’re in for a long stressful season. He showed flashes, and the system indeed looks to be very vertical, but he also flat out missed a half dozen wide open targets. There will be turnovers and poor performances. Then again, there will probably be a couple of 350 yrd, 4 TD games too. The other thing I surmised was that New England fans should be worried, very very worried. They defense looked iffy at best. Teams that are dedicated to the run are going to have tremendous success against these guys. The DBs made plenty of mistakes, I guarantee that folks in Indy, Minnesota and Philly were licking their chops. Based on the way Oakland played, they shouldn’t have been within a TD with 4 minutes to go.

Now for the weekly predictions and summary.

Sunday, Sep 11
Chicago @ Washington (Skins by 6)
Off to a quick start. I read Bill Simmons column today and saw that he’s tabbing the Bears as this years “out of nowhere” team. I’m inclined to agree, even though it’ll cost me a sizable bet I made against them for the season. (I was a little pissed when I heard that Benson was signed) Washington’s defense is solid, but the Bears D is better. The Bears obviously have questions on offense, but having watched every single play this preseason I feel comfortable saying that this team will score points. Not a lot, they’ll be relying on a balanced attack and field position, but Orton has the goods and he has clicked with Moose. The ground attack could be dominant. The flipside is that Washington is the same. Good D, good running attack, iffy QB. I like the Bears odds better. Partly homerism I’m sure, but Muhammad should be the difference. Washington doesn’t have a go to security blanket for their QB. A WR like him can make Orton look good. Take the points on the road.

The pick: Bears (+ 6)

Denver @ Miami (Horses by 4 ½)
I think Miami’s D is going to struggle quite a lot this year. They will probably get a pretty serious test by the fabled Denver running game. One of these years Shanahan is going to lose that magic and the pundits will have a conniption. This year could be the one, but not against this D. Mix it with the mess at QB for Miami and I think it’ll be a long day. I’ve got faith in Saban, but he just doesn’t have the horses yet. Plus it’ll take Brown a week or two to get his bearings, though I think he’ll keep the game close.

The pick: **Broncos (-4 ½) **

New Orleans @ Carolina (Pumas by 7)
Does anyone have a feel for the Saints this year? They could be 12-4 or they could be 2-14. Nothing at all would surprise me. Did they bond and focus or are the distracted and disinterested. I’m guessing it’ll be another 8-8 season, call me indecisive. In this game however, I don’t like their odds. It might set the tone for the whole season. Deuce won’t be able to do anything against that stud D at home. Brooks will be erratic and the weather is uncertain. I’m loving the thought of Davis/Foster/Goings just pounding the rock about 50 times against the stressed out Saints D. If it’s wet, I’m taking the Panthers to be smothering.

The pick: Panthers (-7)

Seattle @ Jacksonville (Pumas v2.0 by 3)
Here we’ve got another tough game to pick. This a week with even more uncertainty than usual. Not only is it week 1, the crap shoot of all crap shoots, the matchups are frighteningly even on the majority of games. I’m high on the Jags, I like Leftwich’s chances and he’s get a good system. I think Seattle will be better than last year as well. Both teams have questions, but I like Seattle’s defense a little more than the Jags. Jacksonville’s strength is their physical secondary, wonder if the Seahawks are going to have a case of the dropsies again. This game has Ophelia questions too, so we’ll see what the weather does. All in all, I have no goddamn I idea. I’ll take the points just because in the end, I think Seattle’s going to finish as the better team.

The pick: Seahawks (+3)

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (Steelmen by 7)
I’m predicting gloom and doom for the black and gold. The health of their running backs is so critical to their success and this game will be the example of it. If they had Plaxico, I’d feel better, but when Hines Ward is Big Ben’s only proven option you have to be worried. On the other side of the field its all about Norm Chow. We’ll see what he brings to the table. Everyone talks about Browns fragile nature….well, its game one, that’s not an issue and Henry will probably play too. When he’s healthy he’s very dangerous. Chow has weapons everywhere, he’ll get them the ball. This game will be close since the Titans D is thin, but I think the uncertainty of the Steelers backfield will decide things. The Steelers will slip this year and it starts on opening day.

The pick: Titans (+7)

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (Bungles by 3 ½)
Does Cincy scare you? Do they? Are you stocking up on Pepto? CJ thinks your should, so do I. I’m not hating on the Browns, Kitna is nifty and they will run the ball better this year. The D is improved a little. But they won’t handle all of Cincy’s weapons. CJ and Housh (sounds like a 70’s crime fighting duo) will stretch the field and Rudi and Perry will each make big yards. Palmer won’t have to do too much as long as he protects the ball. The yards and scores will come. The bandwagon gets crowded after tomorrow.

The pick: Bengals (-3 ½)

Houston @ Buffalo (Billies by 4 ½)
Can you really put money on a unproven QB like Losman? You can when you’ve got arguably the best defense in the league and a stud running back who does it all. Oh, and you’re playing at home where you’re consistently good. What’s this say about Houston? Well, it says that they need to start playing some defense. They need to block someone. They need to finish a tackle. The Bills just won’t leave enough room for the Texans skill guys to stretch their legs. Frankly, the Bills D might outscore both offenses. Take the under.

The pick: Bills (-4 ½)

NY Jets @ Kansas City (Chefs by 3)
J-E-….oh, forget it. They have no prayer here. FEMA could manage a game better than Herm Edwards. Green’s leg didn’t fall off and he’ll be running this show one more time. Oh but wait, the Jets got themselves a difference maker……um, a kicker. Wonderful. KC is liable to score 186 points in this one, not much Ty Law can do about it since the lion’s share will be split between LJ and Priest. Sure, KC has defensive troubles but I don’t see CuMar having the wheels to really make them pay for it. They’ll score, but they won’t keep up. Take the over, and start Priest.

The pick: Chiefs (-3)

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (Queens by 6)
I really think that Tampa will be a breakout team this year. Something about the way they carried themselves in the preseason gave me the impression that they will be very tough offensively. Griese could find a little redemption and the Bucs running game will be productive behind Pittman and the Caddy. They are going to line Pittman up all over the formation too, which will be fun to watch. Of course, the Vikings don’t suck. And the Bucs D will be in for a long day in the dome. I would love to pick the Bucs here, but I just don’t know that they have the depth and talent to slow Culpepper and the WRs. They’ll make a fool of the Vikings D and they might cover the spread, but I bet the Vikes do just enough to win.

The pick: Bucs (+6)

Dallas @ San Diego (Super Chargers by 4 ½)
Hmm, interesting game. I love the Chargers and have been a LT pimp ever since drafting him in my FFL league as rookie. That offense is going to make some waves at home this week and I think Brees plays well enough to put the Rivers talk to bed right now. However, I think it could be a really battle between the RBs to see who puts up the bigger fantasy number. Jones is on a mission and looks to be ready to explode this year. I know Parcells will do everything he can to make that happen. However, Bledsoe shouldn’t scare the SD defense much. He’ll play OK, but make one mistake too many.

The pick: Chargers (-4 ½)

**St. Louis @ San Francisco ** (Fightin Frontieres by 5 ½)
Um, I could babble all day here, but what’s the point? Jackson all day long, as long as Martz doesn’t get in his way.

The pick: Rams (-5 ½)

Arizona @ NY Giants (Gints by 2 ½)
I’m going to put my fingers in my ears and just make loud noises. I know everyone says the Cards are going to be good. The experts love them. They are the consensus “sleeper”, which of course means they’ll go 4-12 again……but I don’t care. I’m staying on board at least of this week. Sure, some might think it’s all because the Giants are starting Eli at QB with a tender wing. But, no, I actually like the Cards chances in this game. Really, I do, I swear. A Tiki fumble seals it.

The pick: Cards (+2 ½)

Green Bay @ Detroit (Lions……yeah, the Lions! By 3)
With one of those proverbial “um, I have no idea, just give the home team 3 and be done with it” spreads, it’s clear no one has any confidence in Brett Favre anymore. I’m glad we’re all agreed. I don’t think the Lions are going to break out this season with that non-existent defense, but I do think the Pack will suck….hard. When was the last time the Pack had the worse defense in this match up? I love it. Brett, better get that prescription filled, it’s gonna be a long season. In this game I expect a shoot out (duh) but the Lions just have better personnel. And Brett struggles notoriously in domes.

The pick: Lions (-2 ½)

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (Ponies by 3)
Damn, everyone loves the Colts. I do too, but usually the Ray Lewis slurpers are so loud this game would be a pick ‘em. I bet there a couple defensive scores in this game. Peyton will make a couple mistakes and get knocked around a little. However, the addition of Corey Simon is a very big one. I don’t expect the Ravens to do anything at all on offense. Simon and Freeney will neutralize the running game, which is already suspect. I’d be nervous if I had a Indy WR this week though, this isn’t going to be a 4 TD game for Peyton.

The pick: Colts (-3)

Monday, Sep 12
Philadelphia @ Atlanta (The T.O. Happy Hour by 1 ½)
I don’t know what to do with this one. I think both teams are a bit overrated, and if anyone in the NFC steps up and stays healthy these teams will get knocked off. Head to head, they give each other fits. I’m going to hang my hat on the fact that the Eagles D lost some big pieces this offseason and those pieces were the deciding factor in dealing with Vick. I won’t be staking any cash on it, but I like the Falcons at home when you consider all the BS that’s happened to the Eagles this camp. Who knows, maybe I’m just rooting for a complete meltdown on the sidelines by someone when they’re down by 14 late in the 4th quarter.

The pick: Falcons (+1 ½)

PICK 5: Bears, Rams, Chargers, Chiefs, Bengals

There you have it. These predictions are for amusement purposes only. I know none of you would do something so irresponsible as betting on sports. (Actually, it’s just the using my advice which is the irresponsible part, but I digress.)

Lets hear some comments, I want to know how full of shit you people think I am :wink:

PS – I hope you guys are watching this Ohio State v Texas game. It’s been a great one to watch, and the sounds of the game are pretty great. What a atmosphere it must be to be there.

2

The Begals/Browns game will be the game to watch. Not just to see what Carlson Palmer will do but because it will actually be exciting and fun to see. In other words, some real football will get played.

The Giants might just add up some scores, too.

And of course, LT@ will set the standard early as he goes for Dickerson’s record this year.

The Texas vs Ohio State game is a nice one. As was the Norte Dame/Michigan game earlier. Good football so far.

3

This afternoon was heavenly… ND on one station, Sox/Yanks on another, Agassi on a third, MD/Clemson in a close one on a fourth, and some random close game on ESPN2 where Marshall was down 2, made a ridiculous 30-some yard completion to the other team’s 23 with 8 seconds on the clock, and with one time-out remaining… decided to pass instead of just run it to the middle to set up the FG. And the pass was tipped and intercepted on another pretty ridiculous play. I’m kind of sad I went out tonight instead of watching the Texas/OSU game, from what I’ve heard of it. Ah, well.

I’m not really THAT worried about the Pats after Thursday night. In the first half, everything went right for the Raiders and wrong for the Pats - there were at least 2-3 penalties called on the Pats that the replays showed were pretty much phantom, the Pats couldn’t do anything on the ground, they couldn’t STOP anything on the ground, the pass to Watson in the two minute drive was a completion and they didn’t even review it, Moss caught a couple long passes, the Raiders didn’t turn it over… and the Pats were STILL up at halftime. If the Raiders don’t block that punt, they lose by 17. The Pats didn’t play great, but they don’t exactly have the best record in season-openers the last few years. The only team in the NFL that worries me as a Pats fan is Indy, and only AT Indy… and even then I think the Pats win that game half the time. The NFC is a joke - only Philly and Carolina are even borderline legit. You are going to see the Minnesotas and the Atlantas of the world lose to some downright mediocre AFC teams this year, just like they did last year.

Everyone should read Bill Simmons’s Friday picks column from this week, if only to scroll to the bottom and see what he says about Monday Night Football. It’s priceless. (Also, what he says about Bruschi is one of only two things I think can keep the Pats from three-peating this year - the other one being Indy having a much easier schedule and pulling off home-field for the AFC Championship game.)

Now, onto tomorrow’s games. I think Indy-Baltimore ends up being the best of the bunch, and I think Baltimore pulls off the win (I refuse to call it an “upset”). Including regular season and playoffs last year, Peyton played three games against defenses that could be classified as “very good”. His stats were:

Week 1 at NE: 16/29, 256 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Week 15 vs. Balt: 20/33, 249 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
AFC Playoffs at NE: 27/42, 238 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Then, of course, he threw for some 50 touchdowns in the other 15 games he played against the Denvers and Green Bays of the world, so he’s some sort of football deity. But I digress. Mostly, the point is that good defenses are extremely capable of limiting the Colts offense, so this game will come down to whether Boller can do anything with his newly upgraded receiving corps. I tend to think he’ll do just enough.

I will be focusing on the Titans and Steelers in the afternoon, mostly to see if the fantasy team I have that is stuck with McNair at QB has any chance this year. Also, 'cause there is no way that I’m going to watch more Bears-Skins, my other possible choice, than I absolutely have to. I also think the two AFC East underdogs have a chance to pull upsets this week, as neither Denver nor KC impresses me all that much. Yet. You can never really tell 'till week 3 or 4, anyways, so we’re all really just making shit up :smack:

Sundays, oh how I love to have thee back!

4

I’m not one to speak against going out, but you missed a monster of a game. Just awesome. Hate that OSU shat it down their leg in the end, but it was a hell of a game. One of the few times a hugely hyped game turns out to be worth the hype and then some. Also a rare game that was interesting to non-alums and people outside the geographic area.

5 

1:00pm **CHIEFS   3  Jets     47½** *Jets in the upset.*
1:00pm **Broncos  4½ DOLPHINS 38½** *Denver in an embarassing laugher.*
1:00pm **Bengals  3½ BROWNS   44 ** *OVER.*
1:00pm **BILLS    5½ Texans   38 ** *Billies easily. UNDER.*
1:00pm **STEELERS 7  Titans   40 ** *Steelers and the under.*
1:00pm **REDSKINS 6  Bears    33 ** *Bet the under.*
1:00pm **PANTHERS 7  Saints   44½** *Panthers easily, and bet the over.*
1:00pm **VIKINGS  6  Bucs     43 ** *More like Vikes by 16.*
1:00pm **JAGUARS  3  Seahawks 38 ** *Jags will crush 'em. Bet the under. Way under.*

4:15pm **GIANTS   3  Cards    37½** *The Giants have Warner's number. Mortal lock.*
4:15pm **Rams     6  49ERS    46 ** *'9ers are a sucker bet in more ways than one.*
4:15pm **LIONS    3  Packers  46 ** *No action.*
4:15pm **CHARGERS 4½ Cowboys  40½** *Cowboys over the One Year Wonders.*

8:30pm **Colts    3  RAVENS   46 ** *Ravens in a stunner.*
9:00pm **Eagles   1½ FALCONS  42 ** *Eagles will own the Falcons same as last year.*

Early Games
Risk 30 for 60 on the Bills & the Under
Risk 30 for 60 on the Panthers & the Over
Risk 30 for 125 on the Broncos, Vikes, & Jags

Late Games
If down 90, risk 30 for 25 on the Giants, or else
If even, risk 55 for 50 on the Giants, or else
If up anything, risk 55 for 120 on the Giants and Cowboys

Sunday Night
If won at least once, risk 30 for 25 on the Ravens.

Monday
If even or better, risk 55 for 50 on the Eagles, or else risk 30 for 25.

6

I think the Eagles are going to win this one without a great deal of problem. I have no idea why people think the team is overrated; the question has been whether or not they’d be the team that made the NFC championship 4 straight years or that PLUS T.O. Only defensive “loss” was Corey Simon, and he missed half of last season and is kinda out of shape. Otherwise it’s close to the same group of starters that shut down Vick last year, with the same coordinator. So I don’t think the defense is overrated.

Offense? McNabb had his best year last year, and we still have Westbrook plus a healthy T.O. Not too shabby.

And arguably the #2 kicker in the game…

7

Managed to go .500 this Sunday. Tonite’s is the rubber match and so far I’m looking pretty good.

8

3-2 on the pick 5, that’s not getting the job done.

9

This was the first I joined a local football pool. Since I know diddly about football, I used ESPN’s Power Ranking to help me pick the winners.

Not counting tonight’s game, I went 4-11. :smack:

10

At least Favre didn’t suck as bad as Cullpepper. That’s what is keeping me sane this week. Deal with it. :slight_smile:

11

It’s written in stone (Rule #47 I think):

If you want to retire early, bet against the ESPN picks. Just a head’s up.

12

NOW you tells me!

Any suggestions?

13

Well, with the MNF game under my belt I’m 8-7. So thats one suggestion. :wink:

One more, don’t listen to Ellis Dee

14

Early Games
27 CHIEFS…3…* 7*** Jets…47½.**34 Jets in the upset.
10 Broncos…4½.34 DOLPHINS.38½.44 Denver in an embarassing laugher.
27 Bengals…3½.13 BROWNS…44…40 OVER.
22 BILLS…5½. 7 Texans…38…29 Billies easily. UNDER.
34 STEELERS…7… 7 Titans…40…41 Steelers and the under.
.9 REDSKINS…6… 7 Bears…33…**16 Bet the under.
20 **PANTHERS…7…23 Saints…44½.**43 Panthers easily, and bet the over.
13 **VIKINGS…6…24 Bucs…43…**37 More like Vikes by 16.
26 **JAGUARS…3…14 Seahawks.38…**40 Jags will crush 'em. Bet the under. Way under.
Late Games
42 **GIANTS…3…19 Cards…37½.**61 The Giants have Warner’s number. Mortal lock.
25 Rams…6…28 49ERS…46…53 '9ers are a sucker bet in more ways than one.
17 LIONS…3… 3 Packers…46…**20 No action.
24 CHARGERS…4½.28 Cowboys…40½.52 Cowboys over the One Year Wonders.
Night Games
24 Colts…3… 7 RAVENS…46…**41 Ravens in a stunner.
10 **Eagles…1½.14 FALCONS…42…**24 Eagles will own the Falcons same as last year.

Don’t ask how I got the columns to line up; if I weren’t setting up a template, it would not have been worth it. So let’s see, there’s an awful lot of red picks. It looks like I went 6-11 for the week, but a nice 1-0 on mortal locks. (Hate to lose those.)

And let’s see what action I would have taken had I not given up betting on the NFL about 10 years ago, for obvious reasons. (6-11?!)

Early Games
Risk 30 for 60 on the Bills & the Under
Risk 30 for 60 on the Panthers & the Over
Risk 30 for 125 on the Broncos, Vikes, & Jags

So at 4:00 I’m dead even, while having had the fun of having action on six different games. Not so bad.

Late Games
If down 90, risk 30 for 25 on the Giants, or else
If even, risk 55 for 50 on the Giants, or else
If up anything, risk 55 for 120 on the Giants and Cowboys

Okay, now we’re in business, up 50 for the day. Can’t not have action on the night games, right?

Sunday Night
If won at least once, risk 30 for 25 on the Ravens.

Doh! Hey, no problem, we’re still up 20, and the Eagles own the Falcons, right?

Monday
If even or better, risk 55 for 50 on the Eagles, or else risk 30 for 25.

Well, we were up at one point, but sadly this week ends at -35. All in all, not too terrible, considering I went 6-11 on the picks themselves. (Picking games is one thing; the real art is choosing which picks to actually book.) I would have certainly considered the loss well worth the fun of all that action.

15

This may not be the right place to ask, but I have no experience with gambling outside of the football pool at work and driving through Vegas a few times, so perhaps someone could explain to me the good advice I’m sure Ellis Dee is offering here:

when it seems risking $55 to win $50 is a loss no matter what happens.

16

The jist of it is that the book/casino has to make some money on it. If you lose they make the $55 obviously. If you win you get $50 back, meaning that extra $5 went into the bookies pocket. Without the vig (juice) the casino is operating as a break even proposition…which we’ll all agree is simply un-American.

17

Sorry, but I guess my stupid pills kicked in because that still doesn’t make much sense to me. Between an option to bet 55 and make 120, and an option to bet 55 and make 50… it doesn’t seem like there should be any argument, bookies and casino profit aside (they win when you don’t, which statistically, is a good take).

Perhaps it’s a good thing I still don’t get it, I might actually be tempted to try it.

18

There is no vig on a win; only losses. There is also no vig on a push, nor should there be any vig at all on any parlays, but good luck finding a generous enough soul to offer that.

The NFL Division Rankings are up.

19

In the hypothetical world of this thread, you don’t pay up front; you “collect” if you win and “pay” if you lose.

20

Ooooookay. Gotcha now. Thank you… sorry for the moment of Duh Hijack.