I managed a 7-6-1 mark ATS, and 7-7 vs the O/U along with a 4-0-1 mark versus the Pick 5. Ok, considering how many road teams I picked, but not enough to get me out of the hole. I’m now at a 59-67-3 mark ATS, 47-48-1 on the O/U and lastly 24-25-1 with my OMNI picks. Slowly improving to be sure, but still I’m wishing I’d never started tracking the totals for hope you guys wouldn’t notice ;).
Here’s the Linky-Linky
NFL Predictions - Week 1 (the Reckoning)
NFL Predictions - Week 2 (the Reconciliation)
NFL Predictions - Week 3 (Clarity)
NFL Predictions - Week 4 (Resilience)
NFL Predictions - Week 5 (Bargaining)
NFL Predictions - Week 6 (Where Fred Smoot is Planning My Weekend)
NFL Predictions - Week 7 (Zygi Wilf and his four-letter words)
NFL Predictions - Week 8 (You can put it on the board! YES!)
NFL Predictions - Week 9 (The Ides of Autumn)
Put Your 2005 NFL Predictions Here
NFL Division Rankings '05
Third Annual Steelers March to the Super Bowl
All Things NFC East 2005
He Hate Me Keeper League Mid-Season Draft Review 2006
Yahoo fantasy football signup now open…
SDMB Fantasy Football draft recap (Prolate Spheroids)
Let’s run down these games. Since it’s Friday and I want to get this done I’m going to shorten up some of my comments, hopefully you guys will give me a little additional meat.
Sunday, Nov. 13
**BUFFALO 2½ Kansas City 41½ **
The Bills should not be favored, in Ralph Wilson or not. Larry Johnson’s average numbers are better than McGahee’s, so even without Priest it’s not like the Chiefs are limp on the ground. Kelly Holcomb is a step up from Losman, but he’s still Kelly Holcomb. I hope Roaf gets his ass back on the field, that’s key, but I’m going to go with the Chiefs and keep my fingers crossed.
The Pick: Chiefs, Under
**Washington 1 TAMPA BAY 33 **
Gonna be another one of those weeks where I pick too many road teams. I don’t like the matchup of Simms versus the Skins D. Tampa has the same kind of D (though they aren’t as good as the Bears) but I expect Brunell to use his experience to make fewer mistakes under pressure than Simms.
The Pick: Redskins, Under
**New England 3 MIAMI 41 **
I’m going to go out a limb here and presume that the Patriots demise will be more dramatic than people supposed. Brady historically has struggled against the Miami D, and I’m prone to believe that even Gus Frerotte can get it done versus the Pats secondary. Corey Dillon has looked very average and the Miami D, while slightly over rated, is still plenty good. I predict a big day for Chris Chambers, and another bitter Tom Brady press conference when this one is done.
The Pick: Dolphins, Over
**CHICAGO 13 San Francisco 32 **
As much as I love the bears, they shouldn’t get 13 points over anyone. Especially with Thomas Jones all dinged up. He’ll probably play, but don’t expect him to get tons of touches is the Bears are in control of this game. A secondary factor is that the 49er D has been pretty darn good even though the offense has given them no help. The Bears will unquestionably win this game, but unless they convert a handful of defensive scores (certainly possible with the Niners coming into chilly soldier field) I don’t see them scoring enough to cover. 17-6 sounds about right.
The Pick: 49ers, Under
**N.Y. GIANTS 9½ Minnesota 45 **
There’s been quite a bit of arguing about how good the Giants are. I think they are very good, probably not Super Bowl good, but they’ll win the East easily and this game. Brad Johnson’s performance last week was very solid, but that wasn’t against a team like the G’ints, it was against the Lions. I expect Eli to make big headlines this week against that laughable Vikings D.
The Pick: Giants, Over
**DETROIT 3½ Arizona 39½ **
Both teams are badly beat up. Bertrand Berry’s loss is huge, probably the least replaceable guy on the Cards roster. I’m consistently baffled why Warner is starting over McCown. He’s the only cat that’s won a game for the Cards in the last 2 seasons. Yeah, bench him…. Of course on the other side of the ball we’ve got the Joey Harrington show which is about as painful to watch as the Magic Hour. I’m inclined to pick the Cards based on past performances, but with all the injuries to key guys and the flight to the Dome I can’t do it.
The Pick: Lions, Over
**JACKSONVILLE 6 Baltimore 33 **
The Jags are about as unpredictable team as there is. They haven’t been getting many points from their offense. The Ravens are getting Boller back, but I don’t suppose many people are expecting an offensive boost as a result. I don’t suppose either team will run the ball well, and the Jags WRs are probably going to disappear versus the Ravens corners. Fred Taylor is likely outl, but Greg Jones isn’t a big drop off. In the end I think the Jags win it, but I can’t put money on them to cover a 6 point spread. Ugh, another roadie.
The Pick: Ravens, Under
**INDIANAPOLIS 17 Houston 44½ **
Well, do you think the Colts are gonna let down? It’s a short week following a huge MNF win against a Houston team that’s been playing reasonably well. At first glance this seems like a no brainer, the Colts roll and cover at home, but a big part of me likes the Texans to do just enough to cover. They’ve got Andre Johnson back and he helped the Texans move the ball against a really stingy Jags D. The Colts have also shown a tendency to get off the gas against mediocre opponents. Then again, the smallest margin of victory in the last 6 weeks is 17 points. Oh, and they beat the Texans by 18 in Houston.
The Pick: Colts, Over
**CAROLINA 8½ N.Y. Jets 41 **
The Panthers are once again everyone’s “it” team. No doubts they’ve been playing really well, and Steve Smith is a major fave of mine. The Jets indeed suck, but they continue to find ways to stay close in games against all odds. Bollinger has grown into his role some and played reasonably well in the comeback charge last week. But, it’s important to note that the Chargers and Panthers defenses aren’t exactly comparable. The spread seems a little bit excessive, but I suppose this could be the week where the bottom falls out for the Jets. Plus I need a big week from Steven Davis in my FFL league.
The Pick: Panthers, Under
And yes, I was trying to figure out a way to work the Panthers Cheerleaders into that discussion. Stay tuned, maybe I’ll come up with something. For now all I managed was to work up a good drool.
**Denver 3 OAKLAND 46½ **
So when’s Jake Plummer apple going to rot? So far the guy has looked like a new man. I think he’ll fall back to earth a bit, but nothing catastrophic like the Peter King’s of the world are predicting. The actual reason is the revived Bronco running game; it’s not rocket science really. Oakland has really revived its running game, and Denver is a different team away from Mile High. The Raiders run D has been very very bad, and that’s not a good thing against the Broncos. The Raiders are 5-15 in the last 20 matchups versus the Broncos, and you know Shanahan still has that grudge. The tipping point for me is that the Broncos are coming off a bye and should have just enough of a edge to cover even in the Black Hole.
The Pick: Broncos, Under
**SEATTLE 6½ St. Louis 51 **
This game feels like a no brainer. The Seahawks aren’t exactly a juggernaut and the Rams still can be potent, but Shaun Alexander at home versus the Rams run D should be plenty.
The Pick: Seahawks, Over
**ATLANTA 9 Green Bay 41½ **
I suspect this game is going to get very ugly very quickly. Brett might get killed. He hates domes, and the Falcon D is just the kind that will give him fits. They attack, Brett’s antics work against conservative defenses, when a defense comes hard and fast he folds. And the other side, Vick is going to gouge the Packs weak ass D. BTW, any else think his rant about being a pocket QB is frigging retarded? He went for a whopping 220 yards. Yeah, you really showed them.
The Pick: Falcons, Under
**PITTSBURGH 7½ Cleveland 35 **
Well, the Browns decided to get the job done last week against the Titans and make me look bad for railing against them. Well, it all came down to one play. That big play to Northcutt. It was a nice play, but it wouldn’t have been worth a damn if the Titans CB had made the tackle instead of going for the strip. The game might have worked out differently. This week, they Browns won’t get those kinds of breaks. They won’t run the ball and the Steelers are the very least know how to tackle.
The Pick: Steelers, Under
Monday, Nov. 14
PHILADELPHIA 3 Dallas 39½
The Eagles are D-U-N, done. Stick a fork in ‘em.
The Pick: Cowboys, Under
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