NFL Predictions - Week 9 (The Ides of Autumn)

In My Humble Opinion
1

So, I took another step back last week. Posting a depressing 5-9 mark ATS and a 7-7 mark on the O/U. I had a brainfart and overlooked the Pick 5, probably for the best the way things went. After a strong week last week, I’ve squandered most of the gains I made. The new running totals are 52-61-2 ATS and 40-41-1 versus the O/U, and 20-25 on the OMNI picks for good measure. Hopefully here at the midpoint of the season we can turn this thing around, becoming the Anti-Dolphins.

Here’s a linky-linky update, if there’s any new NFL threads out thee I’ve missed let me know.

NFL Predictions - Week 1 (the Reckoning)
NFL Predictions - Week 2 (the Reconciliation)
NFL Predictions - Week 3 (Clarity)
NFL Predictions - Week 4 (Resilience)
NFL Predictions - Week 5 (Bargaining)
NFL Predictions - Week 6 (Where Fred Smoot is Planning My Weekend)
NFL Predictions - Week 7 (Zygi Wilf and his four-letter words)
NFL Predictions - Week 8 (You can put it on the board! YES!)
Put Your 2005 NFL Predictions Here
NFL Division Rankings '05
Third Annual Steelers March to the Super Bowl
All Things NFC East 2005

He Hate Me Keeper League Mid-Season Draft Review 2006
Yahoo fantasy football signup now open…
SDMB Fantasy Football draft recap (Prolate Spheroids)

Onto the picks.

Sunday, Nov 6
**Detroit 1½ MINNESOTA 37 **
Which teams QB situation is worse; the ancient and likely rusty Brad Johnson for the Vikes, or the possibility of a not-so-triumphant return of Harrington for the Lions? There’s still about a 50-50 chance that Garcia starts for the Lions, and if he does you have to like their odds quite a bit. If there was ever any quit in the Vikings (and by most accounts there is) this Culpepper injury is the “abandon ship, every man for himself” call for those guys. As a result, even a Harrington start would still favor the Lions. They’ve got the better defense by a mile, a capable coach and a general sense of purpose. They are healthier offensively and just flat out have better talent, and there’s a chance of Harrington coming out focused and aggressive after getting a unexpected second chance.

The Pick: Lions, Over

**San Diego 6 NY JETS 41 **
There’s no reason for me to keep parroting my opinion on the Jets, you all know where I come from there. I’ll add that the Chargers are the best damn 4-4 I’ve ever seen. If the Falcons go for 208 against the Jets, I’ve got a hunch LT could break out this week.

The Pick: Chargers, Under

**CLEVELAND 3 Tennessee 38 **
Screw the damn Browns, I’m done counting on Dilfer to not suck. He’s back into “crappy QB” generalizations. McNair or Volek, I don’t give a damn. Jeff Fisher is gonna find a way to be productive against those candy ass Brownies. I still think Braylon Edwards has the chops, but Dilfer’s not the man to utilize that. Without futher ado, I present you with my third straight road team pick……

The Pick: Titans, Under

KANSAS CITY 4½ Oakland 51½
Priest is questionable due to a concussion, but I’m betting he’ll play. The guy is pretty tough and I don’t see him sitting out a home game against the hated Raiders. If news changes I might have to revisit this. Similarly Moss also iffy, but I don’t have the same faith in his constitution. The Raiders probably aren’t going to be a factor in the race for the divisional crown, and they know it. The Chiefs however need to see this as a must win game. A game to pull out all the stops, and I bet the do.

The Pick: Chiefs, Over

**Chicago 3 NEW ORLEANS 34 **
It strikes me as strange that this in only a 3 point spread. I’ll grant you that the Bears offense isn’t dominating and they are on the road, but it’s a stretch to say the Saints have a home field advantage. The Bears D is playing awesome and is the type of force you’d expect to just wreak havoc with the hapless Saints. Plus there’s no Bourbon street factor to hurt them on Saturday night. Is this the week when Turner unleashes Orton? As I picture this game playing out on the NFL Films Yearbook next year, I’m betting the soundtrack is the one from the Benny Hill show.

The Pick: Bears, Over

**BALTIMORE N/L Cincinnati N/L **
I love Lamp.

**Carolina 1½ TAMPA BAY 36 **
Got hosed last week because I ignored the Gamblers rule which states that you never should bet on a crappy QB on the road…I’d like to redeem myself this week but Little Boy Simms is at home. After crapping down their leg in SF last week I’ve got no faith in them holding serve against a Panther team which seems to be coming together. The meager 1½ point spread seems generous.

The Pick: Panthers, Under

**JACKSONVILLE 13 Houston 36½ **
Well, I got burned by my first big spread last week so I guess I can’t make this game a no-brainer. Ironically the dawg covered and won as seems to be the way of the new NFL, so I suppose that’s of note. The Texans also got off the schneid last week, so perhaps things are looking up. Um, but seriously, the Jags are going to get it done this week. Were it more than 2 TDS I’d probably be more concerned, but I’ll go against the points.

The Pick: Jags, Over

**Atlanta 1½ MIAMI 40 **
The Dolphins have had something of a goofy schedule. It seems that every road game they’ve played has been against an inferior opponent and every home game has been against a superior one. As a result they’ve been uncommonly difficult to pick this year. The trend continues this week, getting a strong Atlanta team at home. However, it’s an Atlanta team which they seem to match up pretty well against. Their D will give Vick and Dunn plently of trouble, though not shut them down. On the other side the combo of Brown and Williams have had quite a lot of success over the last week or two, and may be able to ball-control the game into their hands. The situation I want to avoid is having to count on Gussy to dodge the Falcon pass rush and connect down field on 3rd and long, scary no?

The Pick: Falcons, Over

**NY Giants 10 SAN FRANCISCO 42 **
I did not see that statement game coming from the Giants last week. Seriously impressed. Wished I’d have watched more of it and had been able to judge how clearly it showed the relative abilities of the two teams and how much, if any, of the Giants success was emotionally boosted. I can’t help but think, looking at the two teams previous games, that the Redskins aren’t that bad and the Giants aren’t that good. However you slice it, they still are 10 points better than the 49ers. I‘m chalking last weeks home win as being more about the ineptness of Simms and Cadillac than it was about the SF D and Mr. Dorsey. Still, I bet Frank Gore has a pretty good fantasy day.

The Pick: Giants, Over

**Seattle 4 ARIZONA 44 **
OK, I’m getting scared again. I’m picking WAY too many road teams this week and I’m liable to do it all over again here. Were McCown getting the start I might be more apt to like the Cards chances at home, but I just can’t favor them against the force that is Shaun Alexander. Plus it’d be sports bigamy to diminish his chances when he’s the back bone of my SDMB FFL team. The bye week certainly should help the Seahawks a tad, even though they’ve really struggled on the road this season. This game could be a test for them, I think they pass.

The Pick: Seahawks, Over

**GREEN BAY N/L Pittsburgh N/L **
Pass the Vicodin please.

**WASHINGTON 2 Philadelphia 41 **
The wheels are coming off the Eagles. I don’t care about that debacle in the Meadowlands, I’ve been saying for weeks that McNabb and company are grasping at straws. The odd part is that it seems that it has nothing to do with that preseason TO chaos or any ongoing TOishness. Now TO is out of as many as 4 weeks, at least 2, and the Eagles could be sunk. An interesting counterpoint is that without TO the Eagles may be forced to actually try and run the ball. That could be an unknown quantity. If Reid has to take his deMartzing meds and he finds that Westbrook is all the horse he needs if could be big for them. Nonetheless, I think a Kearseless Eagles fall to the Redskins on the road.

The Pick: Redskins, Under

Monday, Nov 7
Indianapolis 3 NEW ENGLAND 46
The game of the week! Maybe the game of the season, and possibly the biggest game since opening day last season. The undefeated Colts versus their nemesis, the defending champs, the New England Patriots. You guys feeling like getting some banter going here? I feel like this game warrants a little lively discussion. Anyways, enough pandering…

The trend continues, picking another roadie. I don’t quite buy this “Belichick is in his head” stuff. I don’t presume that any professional athlete is so fragile as to second guess his mental ability against an opposing coach. Were this an NBA game in which a guy was physically outmatched, I can see intimidation or loss of confidence, but not when it comes to scheming and play calling. You study this stuff all week, nerves ain’t an issue. Then again, the Pats have pretty consistently done a good job of jumping in and out of formations and subbing personnel at the last minute to frustrate Peyton’s preference on calling plays and audibles at the line. The best tactic to fight this is making the outcome of the game hang on the Pats ability to stop Edge. Frankly, even with Buschi, I just don’t think the Pats have the crew to stop Edge and make the Colts one dimensional. To complicate matters the Pats secondary is getting toasted regularly by deep ball by the likes of Holcomb and Schaub.

The Pick: Colts, Over

2

I’m going to be in the posh seats for this game: about the forty yard line on the shady side. I phear the panthers. Simms looked like a fool last weekend. I think the only thing we have going for us is a) the Panthers might be overconfident b) or they might be having trouble catching their breath from all of the laughter at last weeks game film c) Omni picked against us. Seriously, though, that spread should be more like 3-5 points.

3

I think the key to this game is whether Seymour will be able to play. He’s questionable again this week, as he has been the last few (in which he hasn’t played, possibly in anticipation of this game). If he plays, it changes the entire dynamic of the front seven for the Pats.

If the New England offense plays like they did in the fourth quarter against Buffalo, or any of the other games this season where Brady has thrown up 300 yards with ease, I don’t think they’re going to have any trouble moving against the Indy D. I think this whole “new, improved” thing is largely a mirage created by strength of schedule and the fact that the Colts have finally figured out how much easier it makes it for your defense when you run the damn ball down the field and suck up some time instead of scoring in three passing plays every time you touch the ball.

If both teams are on, this game could easily become the shootout we expected to get in the playoffs last year (before the depleted NE defense almost shut the Colts out). As long as Duane Starks spends significant time on the playing field, I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of the unexpected shut-down, but if Seymour is in there, I think the D will be competitive enough to keep the rampant scoring pretty equal.

The X-factor is how NE decides to treat this game. It’s quite possible that Indy is going to finish up 15-1 or 14-2 even if the Pats win this game, with their ridiculous schedule, and thus that this game doesn’t really matter as much as a lot of us think it does. If Belichick sees it this way, he could well keep out a couple of the questionables until they’re completely better (all the better to sweep the next eight games when we get into the surprisingly skill-challenged division teams and still possibly pick up that first-round bye at 12-4).

Either way, I am totally psyched for Monday, if only because of the predictable “Peyton will finally do it” stories we’ll be seeing this entire week, and the distinct possibility that, well, he won’t. Plus, they’ll be playing the “Cut that meat!” clip on WEEI all week long :smiley:

4

Omni, agree with your picks besides the following
JACKSONVILLE 13 Houston 36 1/2
I think that the Texans will ride the roller coaster like momentum of their first win to cover the spread. Over.

Philly (+2) vs WASHINGTON, 41
Washington looked abyssmal last weekend in nearly every respect. I’m hoping that Joe Gibbs will use that sloppy performance to light a fire under the Redskin’s collective ass, but we’ll have to see. I’m picking Philadelphia, hopefully I’m wrong.
Under.

Indianapolis (-3) vs NEW ENGLAND, 46
I like Indy, but will pick under the 46.

Cinci (-3) at BALTIMORE, 36 1/2 (previously no line)
Baltimore played Pittsburgh pretty tough last week. But will they show up to play the Bengals? The magic eight ball says “try again later.” I say “no.”
Pick: Cinci, over

PITTSBURGH (-4) vs Green Bay, 39 (previously no line)
Steelers cover at home. Over.

5

Last night I had a strange dream.

It was as if I were Jack Bauer, trapped in an episode of 24 and it was Super Bowl Sunday. There was a grand conspiracy involving gambling on the biggest game of the year and only Jack Bauer could get to the bottom of it. The game was between the Colts and Pats (don’t ask how that works). I think I need therapy.

6

Lets clear up those dangling participles.

**Cincinnati 3 BALTIMORE 36 **
I can’t for the life of me understand what the hell happened last week with that Steelers-Ravens game. It scares the crap out of me going into this one. I’ve been on the Bengal bandwagon all season and I really haven’t found too many reasons to question that. They are once again playing an inferior and/or depleted team. Of course, it’s a depleted team that almost beat the team that whipped them a few weeks back. The Steelers struggled to run the ball against the Ravens, and I’m inclined to think that the Bengals will struggle too. Big Ben was injured in the game last week and by most accounts it hurt his play. If that’s a major reason why the Ravens kept it close, you can give the healthy Palmer an egde this week. Both teams will have superb scouting reports and game strategies due to the Lewis history with the Ravens. Also it’s important to note that the Ravens have been good at home and the Bengals have been iffy on the road. This game is a really tricky one to judge, even moreso due to my inherent affection for the Bengals and dislike for the Jailbirds. I guess I’ll just go with it.

The Pick: Bengals, Over

**Pittsburgh 6 GREEN BAY 42 **
Big Ben is out. Thats a huge factor with the Tommy Maddox experience going on the road. I’m no Packer tout, they suck major donkey dick, but you just can never pick Tommy Maddox on the road, especially Lambeau, over Brett Favre. All other factors are moot.

The Pick: Packers, Over

7

I think you’re right here. Should be a good game, but Manning is just the sort of quarterback who’s got New England’s number this year. With a secondary picked up off other teams’ reject piles, there’s no way New England is not going to be torched for a couple of long passing plays. And they’ve been lousy against the run lately. If they can’t get off the field on third down, there’s no way New England is going to win, even with a strong game by Brady.

8

Great article on ESPN.com here

As a Bears fan I’m loving the sounds of this. Favre is basically throwing the Packers under the bus. Tying himself to the fate of the Coach basically ensures two possible outcomes. 1) That the Packers will suck over the next couple seasons, as long Brett stays with the team, 2) or that The Pack will go into full-on rebuilding mode at the end of the season making them a doormat for the next couple seasons.

Bang up job there Brett, love ya babe.

I understand loyalty and all, but hasn’t he been watching the last few seasons? Does anyone really think he’d be in worse shape with a stud defensive mind taking the helm in Green Bay? Monte Kiffin maybe? You know who’d actually be a great fit in Green Bay? Marty Schottenheimer. He’s such a pussy when it comes to game-day decisions, but he’s proven to be a very talented schemer and manages a team well from week-to-week. Basically it seems that Favre’s need to be a gunslinger would offset Marty’s play scared mentality, in the end they’ve probably find a really happy medium where they’d be sucessful. Any thoughts?

9

Good thing they cover at home. That’s why I’m taking the Pack and the over. :wink:

Omni, yes there are rough times ahead for the ole Pack. I’d like to delude myself and say that Rodgers has a chance to pulla Favre and come out swinging, but I know in my heart that what I’ve been able to enjoy that last 15 years is a fluke. Not many QB’s can live up to that. And I’m going to miss the last 10 years of the bear’s only hope is to not play against #4. Says something about that team, huh? :smiley:

As far as Sherman/Favre? Leave it as is. What we need is a top level D. Ted Thompson brought in White when everyone scoffed at him playing in GB. He and Sean Jones were instrumental to the title. That’s why I’m holding faith that he’ll make some big moves in the offseason to send Favre out on top. And more important, leave the defense to the defensice coordinator. Sherman is more an offense guy anyway. And with Favre around, he doesn’t have to be any sort of guru.

After Favre? Well, there’s Rodgers. And there’s always the shot that the team will get the #1 pick next year. Any premium QB’s going eligable in April? Any teams that would consider, if we went with a QB in draft or FA that would consider Aaron trade-bait for a DB or corner?

Tough times ahead indeed. After Favre, it just won’t be the same for awhile. How the hell do you replace him the next year? I’m going to enjoy it while I can.

10

See here’s the whole point. You have an offensive minded head coach, and not a very good one at that, and as a result the defense has sucked ever since he was promoted. You don’t think there’s a connection? Last year the defense sucked and things are no better now. What makes you think it’ll be better with the same staff in place next year?

On second thought, yeah, you guys should do that. Nevermind me.

11

Batch is starting. This wouldn’t be as much of a problem for the Steelers if it wasn’t for the fact that Bettis is also out. And, yes, the Packers are 1-6 but they could easily be much higher in the standings. Basically all those games that they lost were very close.

12

Hee. Ok, #1, I didn’t know Big Ben was out because I haven’t been paying attention. I also didn’t realize the Pack was hosting… see #1.
I’ll amend my pick to Packers, over. :smiley:

13

My season record is slowly improving. Will i hit 50% this week?

Last Week: 6-4
Season: 15-18-1

My picks ATS this week:
MIAMI defeats Atlanta ud 1.5
TAMPA BAY defeats Carolina ud 1.5
Cincinnati defeats BALTIMORE fv 3
MINNESOTA defeats Detroit ud 1.5
KANSAS CITY defeats Oakland fv 4.5
NY JETS defeats San Diego ud 6
Tennesee defeats CLEVELAND ud 3
NEW ORLEANS defeats Chicago ud 3
ARIZONA defeats Seattle ud 4
Pittsburgh defeats GREEN BAY fv 6
Philadelphia defeats WASHINGTON ud 2
NEW ENGLAND defeats Indianapolis ud 3

I’m continuing my trend of keeping away from picking the big point underdogs, although last week most of them did fairly well.

14

1:00pm…**Lions…1½…VIKINGS…37…**Vikings at home, I guess. Over.
1:00pm…**Chargers…6…JETS…41…**Jets win outright. First of three upset specials!
1:00pm…**BROWNS…3…Titans…38…**Titans and the over? No clue, really.
1:00pm…**CHIEFS…4½…Raiders…51½…**Chiefs too good at home, bet the under.
1:00pm…**Bengals…3…RAVENS…36…**Bengals as the Ravens fall back to earth. Under.
1:00pm…**Panthers…1½…BUCS…36…**Panthers and the over.
1:00pm…**JAGUARS…13…Texans…36½…**Texans cover the points. Way under.
1:00pm…**Falcons…1½…DOLPHINS…40…**Falcons get easy win, stays under.

4:05pm…**Bears…3…SAINTS…34…**Saints and the over. (1 point game either way.)
4:05pm…**Giants…10…49ERS…42…**49ers win outright, way over. Upset special #2.
4:05pm…**Seahawks…4…CARDS…44…**Seahawks and the over, I guess.
4:15pm…**Steelers…6…PACKERS…42…**Packers win outright, over. Upset special #3.

8:30pm…**REDSKINS…2…Eagles…41…**Redskins easily. Over.
9:00pm…**Colts…3…PATRIOTS…46…**Pats at home, defense keeps it under.

Spread Picker Picks
6 Jets
6 Texans
5 Cards
5 Saints
4 Eagles
4 49ers
4 Patriots
4 Vikings
2 Bucs
2 Dolphins
1 Ravens
1 Titans

What to do, what to do. Spread picker has been picking it up lately, so let’s see if I can find picks that we both like.

Early Games
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Jets getting 14, Texans getting 21, Vikings getting 9½.

Late Games
Risk 30 for 125 on the 49ers, Packers & the Packers-Steelers Over

Sunday Night
Risk 30 for 25 on the Redskins

Monday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Pats & the Under

[post=6751701]Standings[/post]
Last week: 10-6, -115
Season: 63-73-1, -565
Spread Picker: 32-19-1

15

Wha? Who are you and what have you done with Ellis Dee

16

Lets take a moment and summarize a few loose ends.

  1. TO is benched, I love it. Apparently the injury was all a red herring, but the net result is that he’s out and my pick stands.

  2. Harrington is officially the starter for this week. Also, this doesn’t change my pick.

  3. Ray Rhodes is going to miss the game for the Seahawks due to health issues. This does tempt me to change up that pick, but I just don’t see the Cards stopping Alexander. My confidence level is low though.

  4. As noted, it’s Chaz Batch and not Maddox who’s getting the start for Pittsburgh. This combined with the fact that Green Bay may be down another running back makes me worry about my original pick. Since it’s 6 points I’m going to hang on and hope for a 3 point Packer loss.

  5. Priest is still iffy, Roaf is probably out. The Cheifs could be without 2 or 3 DBs as well. I would flip-flop, but I’m not for 2 reasons, one Moss is really playing poorly with injuries, and it would mean I picked 11 road teams this week. Eeek!

God damn, I’m REALLY concerned with the number of road teams I’m picking here, and I’ve looked at almost all of them a second time and can’t convince myself that I’m making any mistakes. Well, guess I gotta go with my gut and take those lumps.

Here’s my OMNI picks: Indy, Washington, Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago

17

I’ll be leaving for the Bucs / Panthers game in about five minutes (I’ll be the guy in the red John Lynch jersey), so here’s a really quick random stab in the dark:
Predictions - Week 8 (You can put it on the board! YES!)

Sunday, Nov 6
**Detroit 1½ MINNESOTA 37 **
Vikes at home, Over

**San Diego 6 NY JETS 41 **
Chargers Up, Jets ATS, under.

**CLEVELAND 3 Tennessee 38 **
Yuck. Cleveland at home, although I won’t be surprised if this is a push. Under.

KANSAS CITY 4½ Oakland 51½
Chiefs, Under

**Chicago 3 NEW ORLEANS 34 **
Bears, under.

**BALTIMORE N/L Cincinnati N/L **
Bengals and let’s say over. What was the spread?

**Carolina 1½ TAMPA BAY 36 **
Bad offensive line loses it for us, Panthers and over.

**JACKSONVILLE 13 Houston 36½ **
Jags, Over.

The Pick: Jags, Over

**Atlanta 1½ MIAMI 40 **
Falcons, Under.

**NY Giants 10 SAN FRANCISCO 42 **
Giants Up, 49ers ATS, Over.

**Seattle 4 ARIZONA 44 **
Hawks, under.

**GREEN BAY N/L Pittsburgh N/L **
Steelers. Just because it would be amusing, and in honor of Airman Doors recent deployment.

**WASHINGTON 2 Philadelphia 41 **
I would have picked the Skins, but I like that TO was suspended. I think it will rally the club.
Eagles, Over.

Monday, Nov 7
Indianapolis 3 NEW ENGLAND 46
Patriots until proven otherwise. Why does this game always seem to be in NE in poor weather?

Wish us luck, it will be a miracle if the Bucs win today.

18

Pfft, it’s going to be the most ridiculously good weather you can hope for in a New England fall tomorrow night. On the other hand, the Revolution have a playoff game at Gilette today, and hopefully they will tear up the field for us.

Weeks where the ‘better’ teams are largely on the road are a pain in the ass, but here are five:

Chiefs, Bears, Seahawks, Redskins, and (HOMER ALERT! HOMER ALERT!) Pats

19

Shibb, hope you’re having a good time.

Quick hits:

  1. Damn, LaDanian Tomlinson is a Fantasy Football orgy on legs, week in week out. Good god man, one of the few years where a #1 overall pick REALLY outpaces the rest of the pack.

  2. What the hell is happenning with the Vikings? 24-0 in the first half? This is bad for my pick and my fantasy leagues. Ugh, who knew Brad Johnson was the savior.

  3. What’s with Houston shutting down the Jags, zero points in the first half? With both Taylor and Leftwich on my fantasy teams I’m more than a little consternated.

20

Sunday, Nov 6

Vikes at home, Over - Yes!
Chargers Up, Jets ATS, under. Yes, Yes, No.
Cleveland Under. Yes, yes.
Chiefs, Under. Yes, No (stupid 1/2 point!), Yes.
Bears, under. Yes, Push, No.
Bengals and let’s say over. Yes and No.
Panthers and over. Yes and Yes.
Jags, Over. Yes (SU), No, No.
Falcons, Under. Yes, yes, yes.
Giants Up, 49ers ATS, Over. Yes, No, No
Hawks, under. Yes, yes, no.
Steelers. Yes (SU & ATS), no pick on O/U
So far this week: 12-0 Straight up, 8-3 ATS, 5-6 O/U.

Bucs game sucked. Donkey Balls. Pretty much exactly what I was afraid would happen. Saw Doug Williams before the game. He’s still a big dude.