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Old 11-03-2005, 05:17 AM
VarlosZ is offline
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He Hate Me Keeper League Mid-Season Draft Review 2006


This is Part One of my mid-season draft review (Part Two should be before sundown tomorrow). Draft results in their entirety can be found here.

For the draft grades and best & worst picks "then," I mostly entered the selections from the the draft reviews at the times (from Hamlet and Omni -- Mundi's draft reviews were awesome, but he didn't assign arbitrary grades or best & worst lists). Those reviews start on this page. I've included our ranks according to points scored partly as a curiousity, but mostly because I've scored the most points and want to make that clear to everybody.

I'm sure to have made plenty of mistakes and omissions, especially regarding injuries, so please point these out as you see them, and I encourage violent disagreements with my opinions, of course. Enjoy.


Fourth and Nineteen: 7-1, 1st Place, 717.51 points (5th)

Best picks:
Then -- Tomlinson (1), P. Rivers (16)
Now -- Tomlinson and Rivers. This team's reward for avoiding the Peyton Manning trap is 1st place in the standings. Rivers should get a shot somewhere next year, making him a good 14th Round keeper. Delhomme (8) was also steal -- he's put up more points than Manning, and waiting until the 8th round to grab a QB made this a better team overall.

Worst picks:
Then -- Lee Suggs (6)
Now -- Suggs was bad, but Cedric Benson (3) has been a disaster -- 108 total yards, no TDs.

Keeper Potential -- Delhomme (8), Stokley (12), and Rivers (16) all look like good values.

Injury problems? -- Kyle Boller (15) has missed basically the whole seaosn, but who cares? Otherwise they've been clean.

Grade
Then: C
Now: B. This would be higher, but there weren't any particularly good picks aside from the three I mentioned above.

Also, as the 2nd place team, I wish to note for the record that Fourth and Nineteen has been pretty lucky so far, avoiding injuries and winning some close matchups. They're 1st in the standings, but 5th in points scored.



Pentium None: 0-8, 14th, 467.65 (14th)

Best pick:
Then -- Peyton Manning (he who can single-handedly propel a team to first place) with the 2nd overall pick.
Now -- Hmm. Chris Chambers (5) was a pretty good value.

Worst pick:
Then -- D. Foster (2).
Now -- I'm tempted to say Manning (he who can single-handedly kill your fantasy team if you used the 2nd overall pick to take an average fantasy QB), but that wouldn't be fair to the other nominees. Foster is still the worst pick, but J. Horn (3), M. Faulk (4), E. Johnson (6), and J. Pathon (9) have all been very disappointing or worse.

Keeper Potential -- N. Burleson (11) and Roethlisberger (12) will make good keepers for the second straight year. Nothing besides those two, however.

Injury problems? -- E. Johnson (6) has missed the whole year, but he was injured at the time of the draft. Burleson has missed a few games.

Grade
Then: C-
Now: D-. Sorry, man, this just wasn't your year.



Cedric Benson Busts: 5-3, 4th, 740.57 (3rd)

Best pick:
Then -- S. Alexander (1). The safe pick.
Now -- Alexander has paid off nicely, but the best pick was Thomas Jones in the 4th. Let that be a lesson to you kids: just because a starting RB has a highly touted youngser behind him doesn't mean he's not the starter.

Worst pick:
Then -- Carolina's D (6), a keeper. No need to take a defense this high, especially one that doesn't end in "altimore."

Now -- J.J. Arrington (3) was a total bust. No longer with the team. Carolina has indeed been a bad value (there are a few teams on the waiver wire that have out-performed them, which should not have been wholly unexpected).

Keeper Potential -- Mi. Clayton (11) again, maybe Leftwich (7). D. Rhodes in the 16th was a steal; never know when the backup RB on the league's best offense might come in handy (especially since Edge probably won't be back next year).

Injury problems? -- Housh (5) missed a few games. Nothing serious.

Grade
Then: C+
Now: B.



Baltimore Wierdos: 2-6, 13th, 674.67 (10th)

Best pick:
Then -- S. Davis (9)
Now -- Still Davis, of course. The 11th-best fantasy RB so far was picked up with the 116th overall pick . . . which wouldn't be such an indictment of the rest of us if he hadn't been pencilled in as the starter on a run-heavy offense from Day 1. Nice job.

Plaxico Burress (6) was also a steal, which he turned into LaMont Jordan via a trade with the Fanboys.

Worst pick:
Then -- T. Bell. This would have turned into a decent pick by now if the Wierdos hadn't dropped him a month into the season -- why draft a backup RB on the spec in the 2nd Round if you're going to give up on him so quickly?

Now -- Culpepper (1). No one could have forseen such a disastrous all-around season fro Pep, but still. This was even a questionable pick at the time, as you had to expect Culpepper to drop off somewhat from a career year after losing the best WR in the league. Culpepper '04 would be worthy of the #4 overall pick, but Culpepper '05 was very unlikely to have such a good year

I was going to say that R. Droughns was a reach in the 4th, but I see now that he's got 641 yards from scrimmage, making him the 25th best fantasy back in the league. Not too shabby.

Keeper Potential -- S. Davis (9) could be a good keeper if he can hold it together for one more year (doubtful). A. Gates (10, keeper), the best TE in football, will be kept with the 8th pick.

Injury problems? -- Culpepper is done for the year, forcing the team to get rid of L. Jordan in a trade for K. Collins. Stephen Davis should spontaneously combust within the next week or two.

Grade
Then: D
Now: B-/C+. This mark gets a big boost from the Burress and Davis picks, and Bell's being better than expected also gets factored in.



Varlos' Zzzzzzz: 6-2, 2nd, 774.85 (1st)

Best pick:
Then -- J. Witten (6). I had plenty of solid picks, but this was the only out-and-out steal at the time.
Now -- Edge (1). There were a lot of very similar backs I could have gotten with the 5th overall pick (Holmes, McAllister, Dillon, Barber, J. Lewis), but I picked the right one. James, the 3rd RB drafted, is currently 3rd in fantasy points (behind the 1st and 2nd RBs drafted). Way to go me.

Worst pick:
Then -- Keyshaun (8). He's worked out; currently 17th among WRs.
Now -- Lee Evans (7). Seemed like such a steal (and possible keeper fodder) at the time, but he's been awful. Partly his fault, partly the fault of the Losman/Holcombe tragedy behind center.

Keeper Potential -- McGahee (5) will be kept again, but won't be such a steal next time around. A few other maybes -- Bryant Johnson (16), B. Jacobs (13), etc. -- but probably just McGahee.

Injury problems? -- A lot, actually, especially at WR. My 3rd Round pick, Javon Walker, was lost for the year in Week 1. Fortunately, I also drafted R. Ferguson in the 12th; unfortunately, he's also gone now. Torry Holt (2) has missed a couple of games. Bobby Engram (10) will have missed about a month before he finally gets back. Brian Griese (11) is gone for the year. Derrick Blaylock (9) is also done.

Grade
Then: A
Now: A. Top scoring team in the league even with all those injuries and a starting QB -- Hasselbeck (4) -- who's just doing ok. Normally I wouldn't toot my own horn, but this was the best fantasy draft I've ever had.



BoomGoesTheDynamite: 6-2, 3rd, 764.37 (2nd)

Best pick:
Then -- P. Holmes (1).
Now -- B. Westbrook (2). He's neck and neck with Holmes so far, giving Boom a great RB combo.

Worst pick:
Then -- K. Collins (4). Didn't have to get a backup QB this early with Palmer (10) as a keeper, but he did manage to turn Collins+Larry Johnson into LaMont Jordan just couple of days ago, via a trade with the Culpepperless Wierdos.

Now -- A. Johnson (3). The complete implosion of the whole Houston offense means that Johnson -- who has, what, 80 receiving yards this year? -- isn't even with the team anymore.

Keeper Potential -- Johnson (9) and Palmer (10) will make great keepers again next year. D. Bennett (6) might also be kept again. L.J. Smith (8) is a possibility. Probably the best keeper crop in the league.

Injury problems? -- Bennett has missed a lot of time, but not too much otherwise.

Grade
Then: A-
Now: B+. Would be an A if we were factoring in keeper picks. As it is, there weren't any exceptional steals, just a lot of solid picks.



Crabby Hermits: 4-4, 8th, 639.03 (12th)

Best pick:
Then -- W. Parker (11).
Now -- Parker, easily. The starting rusher on the rushingest team in the league. It's our own fault for assuming he'd be sent to the bench once the other guys got healthy.

Worst pick:
Then -- C. Brown (2). A decent but injury-prone back on a bad offense with a RB of roughly equal quality (Henry) likely to steal a lot of carries. This should have been Westbrook.

Now -- D. Clark (7). I thought he'd be pretty good, too, but Manning just doesn't throw to him (183 yards, 1 TD). Brown has worked out about as well as we could've expected, but that's still not saying much.

Keeper Potential -- A. Lelie (6) again, but only if he has a big second half. Randle El (10) shoul be a good value in the 8th next year. Willie Parker (11) has a good chance to be the starter in Pittsburg again next year, and should be kept regardless. Alex Smith (16)? Only if the commish can't find three other keepers.

Injury problems? -- Lots. Dillon (1) has been banged up recently. Bulger (3) has missed a few games. D. Jackson (4) is still recovering from knee surgery. I. Bruce (5) has missed been out for several games. Alex Smith is injured, but that doesn't really matter since he's put up negative-6.33 points this year.

Grade
Then: B-
Now: B+/B. This would be a much better team if not for injuries. In the meantime, they've done a good job of getting by.
  #2  
Old 11-03-2005, 06:34 AM
Omniscient is offline
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Hey man, glad to see the thread. Was just thinking about busting your balls over it in the league page tonite. I'll jump in with my midterm review as soon as you finish the second half. So far I'm mostly in agreement, though I haven't gotten nearly enough credit for how heavily I touted Thomas Jones. Look at my team name for godsake!
  #3  
Old 11-03-2005, 09:21 AM
NurseCarmen is offline
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I really suck this year. I'm going to have to relive my glory year last year, hey, I did better than most of you then!

now I just give you easy victories.
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Old 11-03-2005, 03:30 PM
Wilson is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VarlosZ
Also, as the 2nd place team, I wish to note for the record that Fourth and Nineteen has been pretty lucky so far, avoiding injuries and winning some close matchups. They're 1st in the standings, but 5th in points scored.
Not only that, but my strength of schedule has got to be really low. As you said, I'm only 5th in points. I haven't yet faced the 1st, 2nd and 4th place teams in points (you, Munch and Mundi), and although I beat the 3rd place team - Omni - I get to play them again in week 14.
But hey, gotta beat up the weak teams when you play them... I figure if I can go 3-3 from here on out, I should be solidly in the playoffs. Don't know how I'm doing that with the crappy draft I had - LT makes up for a lot of mistakes, and as you said Delhomme in 8 was great value. I still think Reggie Wayne and Eric Moulds will wind up as better than the #28 and #30 WRs when the year is done.
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Old 11-03-2005, 04:18 PM
VarlosZ is offline
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An unschecduled family trip (walking across the Brooklyn Bridge) has come up, forcing a slight postponement. Part Two will be up tonight, before bedtime (say, around 9 Eastern?).
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Old 11-03-2005, 06:00 PM
Jimmy Chitwood is offline
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Don't even do my team; I'll save you the time. Sucks.
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Old 11-03-2005, 10:16 PM
VarlosZ is offline
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Part Two, chapters 1-3. The walk across the Brooklyn Bridge was followed by a walk back over the bridge and into Chinatown for dinner, so I'm back a little later than anticipated.


Feed My Family: 3-5, 12th, 603.12 (13th)

Best pick:
Then -- B. Lloyd (11). A #1 WR in the 11th round. Good value, even if he does play for San Fran.
Now -- J. Galloway (4). Currently the 5th rated WR, and a cut above #6 and below.

Worst pick:
Then -- Galloway. See above, but it sure seemed shaky at the time -- a #2 receiver on a mediocre offense. Shows what we know.
Now -- J. Lewis (1), but there are lots of nominees. See below.

Keeper Potential -- Probably Anquain Boldin (6) again, if he comes back and has some reasonable success this season. I don't see anything else.

Injury problems? -- Boldin's knee is acting up again, but should be back within a few weeks. D. Staley (7) was injured at draft-time and hasn't come back yet. D. Akers (8) has a bad hamstring injury. I forget, is the hamstring important for a kicker?

Grade
Then: C+
Now: D+. This is the over-the-hill gang. Lewis (1), Harrison (2), Green (3), Staley (7), and McNair (10) were all guys who had a real possibility of breaking down this year, and Feed My Family has lost every single gamble to some degree or another. That's just bad luck.



DerierExtraordinaire: 5-3, 5th, 705.99 (7th)

Best pick:
Then -- M. Moore (4). Had as good a chance as anyone to be the main back in the supposedly powerful Vikings offense (and did, in fact, win the job). Too bad the Vikings suck.
Now -- Would be Cadillac Williams (3), but he's effectively missed half the season with injuries and it looks like his workload is going to be scaled back all year. I hate to do this, but how about: Chicago's D (14). The second-best scoring DEF (by a lot), and they're still with the team. Nice one.

Worst pick:
Then -- K. Warner (7).
Now -- Warner, of course. If you're going to wait until the 7th round to take a QB, you've got to do better than this. QBs taken after Warner (who could've gone undrafted without shocking anyone) include Plummer, Delhomme, and A. Brooks. And who's the backup? Kyle Orton.

Keeper Potential -- Braylon Edwards (8) will probably be back next year, but he'll be kepot on spec, not production. Bob Marley (13) could conceivably wind up as something other than a pure backup (but I doubt it). I normally hate the idea of keeping Defenses, but Chicago will be worth a 12th next year. K. Orton (16)? I hope not.

Injury problems? -- McAllister (1) is done for the year. T. Owens (2) will likely miss one or two games starting now. C. Williams (3) has been out/gimpy for most of the year. K. Warner (7) got hurt, lost his starting job, and somehow just got it back. B. Edwards (8) missed a few games with an infected elbow that had the docs giving amputation as a worst case scenario (and that's always a conversation you want your player to be a part of).

All in all, a sure contender for worst injury situation in the league.

Grade
Then: C
Now: B+/B. And only the attrocious QB drafting keeps this from being an A. There was no way to know that McAllister, Owens, Williams, and Edwards would all be hit by injuries. He was right that Cadillac would get a lot of carries and be productive (when healthy), and he was right about M. Moore winning the job in Minnesota (no way for him to predict the Vikings' total collapse). He was right about Marcel Shipp winning the RB job in Arizona. He picked up two very good defenses, Dallas and Chicago, currently 6th and 2nd, respectively.

If he'd taken Plummer or Delhomme instead of Warner, and if he'd had one or two fewer injuries, this would be the best team in the league. As it is, though, he's got waiver-wire hero Mark Brunell at QB (who can't possibly keep up his above-average fantasy performance . . . sorry), and a banged up offense that will struggle to make the playoffs. It's a crying shame.



New York Fanboys: 4-4, 7th, 711.40 (6th)

Best pick:
Then -- T. Barber (1)
Now -- Ellis was fortunate to get Tiki with the 10th pick (I very nearly took him at #5), and he's proven to be a good value there. The best pick, though, was Eli in the 9th. Shocker.

Worst pick:
Then -- L. Coles (3).
Now -- Coles. Even the Fanboys couldn't tolerate his lack of production. He's gone.

Keeper Potential -- Plaxico (6) will be a pretty good value in the 4th next year. Eli (9) will be an exellent keeper.

Injury problems? -- The entire Jets contingent on the Fanboys was hurt by the Pennington/Fiedler mess that turned the Jets into the least dangerous team in the league.

Grade
Then: C
Now: C+/A-. The former grade is in absolute terms, the latter is taking into account the constraints of Ellis' loyalty-based draft strategy. It's hard to imagine a much better team composed entirely of Jets and Giants. He probably should've taken Plaxico in the 6th instead of Pennington (who would've been available next round, for sure), but that's the only obvious fault I can find.
  #8  
Old 11-04-2005, 02:25 AM
Ellis Dee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VarlosZ
Injury problems? -- The entire Jets contingent on the Fanboys was hurt by the Pennington/Fiedler mess that turned the Jets into the least dangerous team in the league.
The funny thing is that it goes much further than that. Injuries killed the passing game, obviously, and that put pressure on the running game, which in turn features a nicked up Curtis Martin and an IR Kevin Mawae, not to even mention that Blaylock is also on IR. All that I can understand.

But wtf, Jets? How's your top two draft picks looking? Mike Nugent?! Holy fucking shit he sucks balls. The second pick has to be better than Nugent, right? Justin Miller?! Shit, he was so fucking bad at returning punts that they were forced to put a starting wide receiver back there in Justin McCareins. That's fucking pathetic. Nice top two draft picks, Terry "Dumbass" Bradway.

And then, just when you think you can't get any more pathetic, the obvious no-brainer trade of Moss for Coles turns out to have been a better deal for Washington. Washington! How many years in a row can the Redskins fuck over the Jets? Jesus Christ!

Luckily the Giants have been fun enough to obsess ovr that the Jets' woes are but a blip on my radar. My buddy the Jets fan, however, is bumming big time.

If only I had been true to my fandom and started Eli over The Chad in week 1, I might be over .500 at this point. Oh well, at least I'm in it. At this point last year I was 1-7 in the league. 4-4 is world's better than that, and at least (I'm assuming) you guys don't look at a game against me as a pushover easy victory. That's something, I guess.

Fucking Jets fucking suck balls. But just to set the record straight, Coles is still a Fanboys starter. (He had a bye last week, but he's back in at W/R in place of Jordan.) So is Curtis, which makes a grand total of two Jets in my starting lineup. *sigh*

I'm hoping to make a run now that I'm past my bye weeks, but unfortunately the Giants schedule gets much tougher down the stretch. I need to win the next two weeks to take advantage of the matchups against the 49ers and Vikings.
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Old 11-04-2005, 04:25 AM
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I don't exactly remember who I had last season, but I remember a very similar evaluation regarding injuries. Next year let's draft early so as to make sure who you all shouldn't draft in any $ leagues. And don't forget that I had drafting problems, I was looking to take Brees in the 6th or 7th round. Regardless, a significant turn around compared to my ~2nd to last ranking last year.
  #10  
Old 11-04-2005, 08:10 AM
Ellis Dee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VarlosZ
Keeper Potential -- Plaxico (6) will be a pretty good value in the 4th next year. Eli (9) will be an exellent keeper.
Yeah, Eli is the obvious quality keeper, but am I allowed to keep Plax, as I didn't draft him but rather acquired him through trade? I'm curious because as it stands right now I really really want to keep him as opposed to burning a second or third to make sure I get him.

By the way, using the fanboy approach has opened a new layer of fun during gameday for me. I created a form in Excel that I print out on the back of my weekly picks sheet (love those threads, Omni!) that I use to track the performance throughout the day. I wait until the game is over to pencil in the passing and rushing stats, but during the game I track all applicable catches, field goals, touchdowns, extra points, sacks, et cetera in real time.

On the form I have the formulas that each of the three leagues I'm in uses, and so I can use a calculator to tabulate my results without ever leaving the couch. (Computer is in a no-tv room.) I find that I'm usually within 2 points of my actual yahoo total, and since I also include the yahoo estimated total for both me and each opponent, I have a pretty good idea of what's what before ever going online. I have to say, it's really quite fun, but only works if you both watch the games live, and have the same players on all your teams.

What do you guys do, just ignore FF until you get online, or feverishly watch the postgame wrapups on ESPNews? Either would drive me batty. heh.

All told, that one piece of paper per week gives me a huge amount of added interest on gameday. In addition to tracking the fantasy stats, I mark down all the final scores, note how the spread picker does, see how my picks and hypothetical bets do, and also track the divisional standings. You should see how much pencil is all over those suckers by the night game.

Damn I love the NFL.
  #11  
Old 11-04-2005, 09:00 AM
Omniscient is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ellis Dee
Yeah, Eli is the obvious quality keeper, but am I allowed to keep Plax, as I didn't draft him but rather acquired him through trade? I'm curious because as it stands right now I really really want to keep him as opposed to burning a second or third to make sure I get him.
Yes, keeper positions are transitive, and you do indeed get to take advantage of using him as a keeper. The only way it's lost is if the players hits the waiver wire.

Quote:
By the way, using the fanboy approach has opened a new layer of fun during gameday for me. I created a form in Excel that I print out on the back of my weekly picks sheet (love those threads, Omni!) that I use to track the performance throughout the day. I wait until the game is over to pencil in the passing and rushing stats, but during the game I track all applicable catches, field goals, touchdowns, extra points, sacks, et cetera in real time.
Glad to be of service! Now go post some chatter in this weeks thread, don't make me bump it .

Quote:
What do you guys do, just ignore FF until you get online, or feverishly watch the postgame wrapups on ESPNews? Either would drive me batty. heh.
I've got two M.O.s.

1) Couch, Laptop, WiFi, Yahoo Statracker. Beer. Pizza.

2) Bar. Beer. Hot Wings. 3 Dozen Big Screens. Direct TV NFL Package.

Both work wonders.
  #12  
Old 11-04-2005, 11:43 AM
Ellis Dee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient
Glad to be of service! Now go post some chatter in this weeks thread, don't make me bump it .
hehheh. The downer is that calculating the spread picker picks is time consuming. While I could just skip doing it, those picks are actually the one thing I'm most interested in. If you notice, no team in the league is currently more than 3 games above or below .500 against the spread, which is a state of affairs that is both likely (considering the complementary motivations of setting and playing the lines) and conducive (sp?) to the spread picker being successful.

Such a simple system, and yet it would have earned money betting every game straight up. I've been feverishly trying to remember the other system that same buddy's little brother came up with regarding over/unders. Same basic principle, same success rate. But it escapes me. (This was 7+ years ago that I last was betting.) All I remember is that the average number of points scored in the league was a key element.
  #13  
Old 11-04-2005, 11:52 AM
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It has been mentioned more than once that I should have taken Westbrook over Chris Brown in the draft.

The Eagles don't want to run the ball, and Travis Henry is fragile this year, so I took a chance. It still may pan out...

Alex Smith, the QB, is already in the dumper. He may have future keeper value, but at this point he's a bust.

Damned injury bug! My team trains in the hospital.
  #14  
Old 11-04-2005, 06:25 PM
VarlosZ is offline
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Home stretch. . .


Moridwon: 3-5, 11th, 668.87 (11th)

Best pick:
Then -- B. Favre (5). Always puts up big numbers, and he was expected to be invlolved in lots of shootouts with that terrible defense. Even with half his offense is on the sidelines with injuries, he's been a solid fantasy QB (currently 5th in points scored).
Now -- R. Brown (3). Solid starter in the middle of Barlow/Faulk territory.

Worst pick:
Then -- R. Moss (1). It was a bit early for Moss, coming off an injury-plagued year, downgrading from Culpepper to Collins, and playing all his games on grass instead of turf. K. Colbert (7) was also a puzzler.
Now -- K. Jones (2). I liked Jones a lot, and I still think he'll turn it around in the 2nd half. So far, though, he's been a major disappointment.

Keeper Potential -- S. Jackson (4) will be kept again in the 2nd if he keeps up this pace. R. McMichael (8) has a good chance of being kept again. T. Williamson (11) should be a good value in the 9th next year.

Injury problems? -- Moss is a little gimpy, but that's about all.

Grade
Then: B+
Now: C+. Only Favre, Brown, and the Jackson keeper have lived up to expectations. Everyone else has disappointed ot some degree.



Rhinosaurs (neuroman): 5-3, 6th, 693.75 (8th)

Best pick:
Then -- J. Jones (2). Another guy I liked, who's had a disappointing year.
Now -- M. Anderson (3). A starter is a starter is a starter. When will we ever learn?

Worst pick:
Then -- D. Driver (4). #2 WR who was poised to become a #3 any day. Of course, due to injuries he's now the clear #1 and is putting up good numbers.
Now -- C. Portis (1). Take away the 49ers game, and he's got under 600 yards from scrimmage with 0 TDs. Not what you need from your #1 pick.

Keeper Potential -- Brees (8) is a sure thing (he's not marked, but he must have been a keeper this year, right?). D. Stallworth (10) and K. McCardell (11) could both be kept if they have solid second halves.

Injury problems? -- J. Jones has missed a few games (with, I believe, ankle problems). Roy Williams (5, keeper) has missed the last three weeks with a strained quad.

Grade
Then: B
Now: B. Driver's working out better than expected and some nice mid-late round steals (Plummer in the 7th, Stallworth, McCardell) counter-balance the semiflops from Rounds 1 & 2.
  #15  
Old 11-04-2005, 07:12 PM
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Fightin' Quakers: 3-5, 10th, 683.35 (9th)

Best pick:
Then -- D. McNabb (2). A prolific passer who also scrambles, and the safest bet at QB this side of Peyton Manning (ironically enough). Even with all his injury problems this year, he's still the #2 QB in the league.
Now -- S. Smith (4). Scooped me; I totally wanted Smith but thought he would last another couple of rounds. This year's Muhsin Muhammed is, by far, the #1 fantasy WR. (Incidentally, the Quakers also have last year's Muhsin Muhammed: Muhsin Muhammed, whom they kept with their 8th Rounder).

Worst pick:
Then -- M. Bennett (3). Also, Arizona's defense (14)? What the hell was that about?
Now -- Bennett. No longer with the team, for obvious reasons.

Keeper Potential -- Smith (4) and L. Fitzgerald (5) would be expensive keepers, but they deserve serious consideration. Reggie Brown might be worth a late-rounder if TO doesn't return to the Eagles. Hasn't Frank Gore (10) been impressive? He'll the be the starter (and a solid keeper) next year if the 49ers know what's good for them. Heath Miller (9) will be a good value.

Injury problems? -- A. Green (1) is kaput. McNabb has been hurting all year (not that it's slowing him down for our purposes). Was Bennett hurt? (Does it matter?) T. Henry (6) was a good gamble, but he's been injured

Grade
Then: C
Now: A-. The injury to Green is killing this team, but there were lots of very good picks here. McNabb was worth the 2nd Rounder. S. Smith might have been the best pick in the entire draft. L. Fitzgerald (5) was a steal, as was Heath Miller (9). F. Gore (10) is getting some touches and should be a nice keeper. Ditto Mark Jones (11).



Mundi Morning Blues: 3-5, 9th, 740.02 (4th)

Best pick:
Then -- H. Ward (4), who's worked out nicely in spite of some injnury problems.
Now -- S. Moss (8). I doubt he can keep up this pace, but he's currently the 3rd rated WR in our league. W. Dunn (5) is a close 2nd in this category.

Worst pick:
Then -- A. Vinatieri (11, keeper). You don't keep Kickers, and this is why. Vinatieri is currently a below average fantasy Kicker, which should not be shocking. Their numbers will fluctuate greatly from year to year, as will their opportunities.

Now -- T. Gonzalez(3). Age has finally caught up with him, and this was too early to take a TE for whom age was a known issue, especially if one had yet to draft a QB or WR.

Keeper Potential -- W. Dunn (5)? Probably not, but his production warrants the discussion. S. Moss (8) looks good. T. Glenn was the steal of the 16th Round.

Injury problems? --Some bumps and bruises, but nothing crippling.

Grade:
Then: B-
Now: A. Everyone pay attention to this guy, because Mundi always drafts well. He got two solid backs on the corner of Rounds 1 & 2 (Rudi and D. Davis). Ward was a steal at the start of the 4th, and Dunn was a steal at the end of the 5th. T. Brady (6) has put up solid numbers, as has Rod Smith (7). S. Moss was a major steal in the 8th. Cincinatti was a good D to pick up in the 15th. Terry Glenn (Terry Glenn!) was there for him in the 16th.

Christ almighty. I just hope his run of bad luck continues so I don't have to face him in the playoffs.
  #16  
Old 11-05-2005, 02:03 AM
Omniscient is offline
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I'm going to review my own comments from the immediate post-draft analysis and in many cases probably parrot some of VarlosZ's thoughts. Take it for what it's worth, and don't expect anything resembling objectivity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient
Fourth and Nineteen
1. (1) L. Tomlinson
2. (28) F. Taylor
3. (29) C. Benson
4. (56) R. Wayne (Keeper)
5. (57) D. Mason
6. (84) L. Suggs
7. (85) E. Moulds
8. (112) J. Delhomme
9. (113) M. Williams
10. (140) Atlanta
11. (141) M. Pittman
12. (168) B. Stokley (Keeper)
13. (169) D. Graham (Keeper)
14. (196) S. Graham
15. (197) K. Boller
16. () P. Rivers

QB – Things are pretty dicey here. I like the Ragin Cajun quite a lot, but he’s not known or expected to put up huge fantasy numbers. He’ll probably be good for 250 yrds and 1 TD a game. They tend to score via the rush, mostly. He’ll benefit from a favorable schedule with only a few games against premier Ds. The backup situation is laughable.

RB – Love LT. Nothing really needs to be said, no one will persuade me that anyone else should have been #1 overall. After that, um, not so much. Fraud’s groin is as questionable as Britney Spears judgment. Some of you may have surmised how I feel about Cedric Benson. He’d likely have still been on the board in the 5th round. Suggs ain’t even a starter now, has a high ankle sprain (think we’ve heard about those with RBs before?). Um, anything else? Oh, right. He plays for the Browns. Pittman was on the roster bubble, but there’s a good chance he’ll be the 2nd most productive guy on this roster. Not good times, bad times.

WR – Things aren’t a lot better at this position. Wayne and Stokley will be quite good, but having 2 WRs on the same teams is always a bit of a danger. We’ll see who gets all the red zone looks this year. Mason has Kyle Boller to worry about, you have both to worry about. Admittedly Moulds was a steal that late in the draft, but Losman could be the second coming of Boller. Always a fun proposition. I love Mike Williams. I really really do. Unfortunately it might take another broken collarbone for him to see many balls.

TE – The Pats aren’t known for utilizing this position. You won’t be either.

K – Well, I like Cincy’s offense this year. They will probably get stalled inside the red zone more than more experienced teams. Not a bad situation for little cost.

DEF – Like the Falcons D a lot. Taking them in the 10th round is a good value. They play in a division that isn’t going to generate a lot of shootouts, and the rest of the schedule helps. They aren’t going to be a difference maker, and will slide back from last years lofty numbers, but still useful.

Overall – This team will struggle. Partly the peril of drafting first overall. If LT and Taylor both stay healthy and the combo of Stokley and Wayne matches last year’s numbers, they might be in the hunt. But those guys will be carrying the team and it has no margin for error. Don’t see anyone staking money on this guy, except maybe his mom.

Potential Keepers – Atlanta, Stokley, Rivers

Grade C
Delhomme has so far outstripped expectations, and has been a real steal. The backup situation is no better now than it was before (the Boller injury was a non-factor) though Rivers could indeed be a great keeper, some of you may recall me making some heady predictions for him.

The RB situation played out as expected, though Freddy has managed to stay mostly healthy if mediocre. I should be lauded for my prescience regarding Cedric Benson. If I recall he dropped Pittman early in the game when Cadillac was burning things up and he's probably regretting it now.

The WR situation has been as maginal as projected, hurt by the new look Colts scheme. However he's been saved to a degree by the fact that pretty much all of them have been average, none being a total bust. With the exception
of Stokely they've all put up right around 52 points. Week-in-week-out they bolstered his totals without disappearing totally any given week. They haven't won him any games, but they didn't lose any either. A classic ensemble performance. This is the key to his success so far IMHO.

The rest of the squad has been as typical and predictable as expected, which in many ways is high praise for the collection of secondary positions.

All in all, this team has gotten a lot of breaks to get where it is now. The biggest was in week one when he beat me by a whopping 1.17 points. I still can't give this team a grade commensurate with it's record primarily due to the fact that this team could easily end up out of the top 6. There's basically no hope if Delhomme gets hurt, and without LT this team really sucks. So far the lack of depth hasn't hurt him, but that rarely lasts a whole season.

Grade: B

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient
Pentium None
1. (2) P. Manning
2. (27) D. Foster
3. (30) J. Horn
4. (55) M. Faulk
5. (58) C. Chambers
6. (83) E. Johnson
7. (86) J. Bettis (Keeper)
8. (111) New England
9. (114) J. Pathon
10. (139) C. Cooley
11. (142) N. Burleson (Keeper)
12. (167) B. Roethlisberger (Keeper)
13. (170) Ma. Jones
14. (195) T. Taylor
15. (198) N. Davenport
16. () Moe Williams

QB – Well, Peyton is Peyton. He’ll be huge, but will he be huge enough to warrant the #2 overall pick? He’d better be because he basically punted at RB and the backup situation isn’t very exciting from a fantasy standpoint.

RB – Taking the top overall QB has a price. That price is the RB position. He basically drafted 3 change of pace backs that will see less than half their team’s carries. Steven Davis is expected to start, as is Steven Jackson. Unless the Stevies fall apart, you’re screwed. Bettis is a wild card, and out for week 1. I’d call this situation dire, though the law of averages state that one of your 5 RBs will be a starter at some point.

WR – Shrewd drafting last year really solidified this position. I’d have passed on Horn for a RB there, especially with the iffy New Orleans situation, but this is probably one of the ebst WR cores. Burleson is probably going to be a monster, Horn and Chambers makes for a rocking threesome. Some more reliable depth would have prudent, but life’s not perfect.

TE – We’ll see what happens with Johnson this year. Gonna have to watch the QB situation, if Alex smith doesn’t like TEs his value will plummet. Cooley is an OK insurance policy, but can you feel good when the words “Tight End” and “Insurance Policy” are used together? Funny quote from the Yahoo experts:

K – Pssst. You still need one of these, just between you an me.

DEF – New England was pretty mediocre last year, and this year they are even more depleted. I don’t suspect it’ll cause massive issues IRL, but it might for a fantasy team. I don’t expect much for this team here.

Overall – Its quite simply the Peyton Manning show. Last year that was enough most weeks. This year this team will be dangerous on any given week, but punting at RB and the trouble everywhere other than WR will cost it in the long run.

Potential Keepers – Burleson

Grade C-
Hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. It's not fair to say that you could have seen the Peyton slump coming, but you certainly put all your eggs in one basket and got screwed for it.

The lack of a valid running back option was apparent then and continues to be a major factor in this teams struggles. I'm surprised you never made a concerted effort to trade Big Ben for a RB or Peyton for a quality pair. Once you saw how good Big Bens year was looking to be you needed to do something with it. Big Ben as a 10th rounder is a good keeper, but not great, certainly not good enough to punt this season away. I know a few teams would consider a Peyton trade for a pair of RBs who put up numbers.

The WR core looked to be the strong point of the this team and it was just shitty luck that Burleson turned out to be a toad and Horn and Chambers have suffered from being on crappy passing teams. Even if they all had come up as home runs, this team would still be struggling near the middle of the pack.

The rest of the crew was as forgettable as predicted and you needed some value to offset the RB issues. Didn't happen. That New England pick is looking like a really big goof. My biggest overall complaint is that I only get to play you once.

Grade: D-

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient
Cedric Benson Busts (My squad)
1. (3) S. Alexander
2. (26) C. Johnson
3. (31) J. Arrington
4. (54) T. Jones
5. (59) T. Houshmandzadeh
6. (82) Carolina (Keeper)
7. (87) B. Leftwich
8. (110) M. Robinson
9. (115) A. Brooks
10. (138) M. Vanderjagt
11. (143) Mi. Clayton (Keeper)
12. (166) Q. Griffin
13. (171) B. Franks
14. (194) K. Curtis
15. (199) M. Booker
16. () D. Rhodes

QB – I’m pretty pleased with the outcome here. I didn’t put a high priority on it, and in the end came out feeling pretty good. I’ll be able to play match ups with Brooks and Leftwich. Either one could turn out to be a stud if the stars are aligned. Honestly, I’m glad I didn’t face the decision of drafting Manning or not.

RB – I LOVE the looks of these guys. Alexander is a no brainer, and him being there at #3 overall was boon. I think J.J. Arrington will be a rookie of the year candidate and the top rookie RB (I do think Ronnie Brown will be better in the long run). Thomas Jones is going to be horse that makes the Bears offense go, and believe me when I say Ron Turner will get production from the running game. Cedric Benson who? Depth could be a issue, but Dominic Rhodes will be the keeper of the century when Edge is a FA next year.

WR – I’m pretty happy here considering 3 of my first four picks were RBs. Chaz is the real deal and that Cincy O will only improve. I didn’t like pairing him with TJ, but he was simply the best guy left on my board. I found some depth late in the draft, and Curtis might be this years Stokley.

TE – Assuming Franks stays healthy, I feel good with him there. Green Bay will need to score a lot and he’ll get his share. Nothing dominant, but you could do worse.

K – Things are very good here. Vanderjagt is a part of the best offense in the league, and if defenses slow Indy down at all in the red zone his output will go up. Plus he’s kicking indoors.

DEF – I made a mistake using these guys as my keeper. They will be a top 3 D this year, but not worth a 6th round choice. Nevertheless, that mistake means I’m solidified.

Overall – I was very, very, very drunk when I drafted. Rock star drunk. Apologizing to everyone I know drunk. Frankly, I deserve a medal for dragging my ass home on time to complete the draft. I blame Jimmy. Needless to say I made a few errors. Definitely drafted Leftwich too soon, and the multiple Cincy WRs could be an Achilles. Nevertheless I’m going to be in the thick of things anyways.

Potential Keepers – Rhodes, Clayton, Curtis

Grade C+
I've got to say I'm feeling pretty good with how I did here when you consider how many really crappy choices I made. At the QB position things played out pretty much as expected, though I had hoped Aaron Brooks would squeak into the line up once in a while. I could have been really dangerous if I'd have been wise enough to take Delhomme or picked up Brunell. Hasn't won me any games, but at least they've always kept me alive.

The RB situation is a great one. The Thomas Jones steal totally offset the Arrington gaffe so long as everyone stays healthy. Depth remains a concern, but Rhodes has been getting some points and I picked up Chris Perry to remedy the Quentin Griffin goof, he's been very nice for a waiver wire move. If Rudi goes down I'm golden.

The WR position has been a strength, however due to my own stubbornness with Michael Clayton I missed out on a couple big days by Curtis (who's a huge steal). So far doubling up on those Bengals hasn't hurt me with Palmer playing like Peyton of last season.

The balance of the team has been overhauled via the waiver wire, with much success. I'm praying Detroit's D keeps playing over it's head, if they do life could be good. If these guys stay healthy I'll be right there at the end of the year, currently riding a 4 game streak and putting up some pretty big numbers. Thank you Mr. Alexander and Mr. Jones.

Grade: B+ (I'm adding the plus as a bonus for recovering from the Arrington/Griffin snafu)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient
Baltimore Weirdos
1. (4) D. Culpepper
2. (25) T. Bell
3. (32) K. Barlow
4. (53) R. Droughns
5. (60) J. Porter
6. (81) P. Burress
7. (88) Baltimore
8. (109) D. Givens
9. (116) S. Davis
10. (137) A. Gates (Keeper)
11. (144) M. Stover
12. (165) M. Pollard
13. (172) S. Parker
14. (193) J. Gaffney
15. (200) P. Ramsey
16. () D. Nash

QB – You can probably take my comments about Manning and recycle them here. Love his game, hate the sacrifice at RB. He’ll lose a little magic without Moss, but I expect the other guys to step up and make him valuable. Not 4th pick valuable, but still valuable. The depth is nonexistent, so you’d better hope he’s as healthy this year as he has been before.

RB – Things are really suspect. Your best pick up was Steven Davis in the 9th round. This was a huge steal, but not enough to make up for that gaffe with Bell. Both Barlow and Droughns are mediocre at best and riding the pine at worst. This is the bleakest RB situation in the league.

WR – This situation isn’t much better than the previous one. Porter isn’t a primary, Burress has Manning the lesser throwing to him. The rest are a mixed bag and will be unpredictable.

TE – Pollard has moved to Detroit and won’t do near the damage he did last year. Especially with their need to get Mike Williams in the mix.

K – Stover will be fine. Blame Boller.

DEF – Homer pick in the Ravens. Luckily they are damn good. But I’ve yet to see a FF defense win leagues single-handedly. I expect them to explode a couple weeks with a big number and more often than not score well.

Overall – This team is good at QB and Defense. Everything else is gutted. He’ll have to get used to rooting for teams wearing Purple I suppose. If he finishes in the top half I’ll be shocked.

Potential Keepers – Gates, Davis

Grade D
More than a little ironic that my comments for Manning and Culpepper were basically identical to start the year, and here we sit with the two teams who drafted them sitting on the bottom of the heap. Two guys that were simply destroying fantasy scorebaords last season, and now there are totally toast. For how disappointing Manning has been, you can multiply that by a 100 for Culpepper. Dave is probably relived that he's done for the year (and maybe career!) putting him out of his weekly suffering.

Davis has been a terrific pick, and giving up on Bell hurt. Dave's been busy, and successfully, working the trading block. Doing a terrific job adding a Culpepper replacement in Collins and adding Larry Johnson (who could explode if Priest's head is bonked), basically all it cost was Plaxico.

The wideouts are pretty mundane, but Gates is a monster who has really made up for any and all WR shortcomings. He's the 6th overall pass catcher in the league, WOW. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see this team come together and knock off a couple big dogs down the stretch run.

Grade: C+ (Serious props for the smart trades)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient
Varlos' Zzzzzzz
1. (5) E. James
2. (24) T. Holt
3. (33) J. Walker
4. (52) M. Hasselbeck
5. (61) W. McGahee (Keeper)
6. (80) J. Witten
7. (89) L. Evans
8. (108) Ke. Johnson
9. (117) D. Blaylock
10. (136) B. Engram
11. (145) B. Griese
12. (164) R. Ferguson
13. (173) B. Jacobs
14. (192) S. Janikowski
15. (201) Tampa Bay
16. () Br. Johnson

QB – This is an excellent situation. Hasselbeck puts up very good numbers and is usually underrated. They’ve dumped Robinson and hopefully that’ll mean fewer drops. In that division he won’t be facing much in the way of defense, so you can expect improvement over last season. I think Griese is liable to have a great year. Just a hunch based off preseason performance. Certainly a good value pick there.

RB – Not much to complain about here either. The McGahee keeper is probably the biggest of the entire league. I think the Edge pick was a bit of a reach, but that’s just because I think he’s an injury risk. Personally I’d have preferred Deuce or Priest here, but neither is a sure thing. It was probably a mistake not to find a fallback option, or to take Rhodes late. Worked great for me though, HA!

WR – Terrific job at WR. Didn’t punt on any other positions and still found 3 studs. Plus 4 very solid fall back options. Bravo.

TE – Witten is excellent. Perhaps a little high for the 6th round, but a good fit based on your needs.

K – Another perfect pick. Everyone loves Oaklands O this year and I think they forgot about Janikowski. As long as he’s not locked up for pulling a Chmura you’re golden.

DEF – Well, you had to punt on something and this was it. Though the difference between a depleted Tampa D and some of the ones taken a few rounds earlier makes it an acceptable risk. You can play matchups with the waiver wire and get by.

Overall – So far, this is the team to beat. It’s just a well rounded, excellent, scary team. That McGahee keeper pretty much locked things up. I hate you. Me, well I drafted Julius Jones last year and dropped him…..no, I’m not jealous.

Potential Keepers – McGahee (grrr!!!), Griese, Br. Johnson , L. Evans

Grade A
This was a very good draft then, and it's been played well up until now. The QB are just right, Edge turned out to be much better than I expected. The tremendous depth at WR in the draft was perfect since that's where he absorbed all his injuries. Hell, even that Tampa D turned into a gem. Once Holt and Engram come back to full speed this looks like the team to beat in the long run. Avoided any panic trades and the only real Achillies is depth at QB and RB. It's certainly no minor factor, but thats a common thread between the top teams. I'd say more, but this team just doesn't deserve much critisism.
  #17  
Old 11-05-2005, 02:24 AM
furt is offline
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Location: College Park, MD
Posts: 9,291
Quote:
Originally Posted by VarlosZ
Hasn't Frank Gore (10) been impressive? He'll the be the starter (and a solid keeper) next year if the 49ers know what's good for them.
Maybe. The big danger is that they'll be in position to take Reggie Bush. I think they are skittish about his knees holding up for 300 carries.

Besides that, I think I'll disgree with you on one thing -- taking McNabb was NOT a good pick; I was choosing 15th, which meant I was in the end of the third round. By the time I got a chance to take a second RB, there were no certain starters left. I would have been much better advised to take a 2nd RB, and then pick up an adequate QB later.

I screwed the pooch royally, knew it immediately, and began thinking keeper at every pick.
  #18  
Old 11-06-2005, 01:41 AM
MysteryFellow63427 is offline
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Posts: 3,996
Quote:
Originally Posted by VarlosZ
Keeper Potential -- Brees (8) is a sure thing (he's not marked, but he must have been a keeper this year, right?).
Quick note, Brees was not a keeper. I'd be surprised if I drafted him at 6 next year, but anything is possible.

I'd agree and say my team is squarely in B/B+ territory. With some luck, I can make the playoffs.
  #19  
Old 11-06-2005, 02:05 AM
Ellis Dee is offline
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Location: New England
Posts: 14,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by neuroman
Quick note, Brees was not a keeper. I'd be surprised if I drafted him at 6 next year, but anything is possible.
Agreed that there is no way you drafted Brees. He was a complete bust who was expected to start only enough games to drive home the point to Rivers that holding out was uncool.

Brees did not raise himself above sucking until after last year's fantasy draft. I'd be surprised if he was drafted by anybody in any round.
  #20  
Old 12-10-2005, 04:05 AM
MysteryFellow63427 is offline
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http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/398878
  #21  
Old 12-10-2005, 02:58 PM
Omniscient is offline
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Location: Chicago, IL, USA
Posts: 17,636
Hehe, I love drunken sports boasts!

For the audience who don't have access to the League page here's the text of neroman's post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhinosaurs(neuroman) (neuromanzero)
It's been long enough.

I think we should open this football league to sidebets.

I would like to wager my 11th round pick from next year against your 11th round pick from next year, Cedric Benson Busts. Who will do better as a QB from now until the end of the year: Tuiasosopo, or Frye or Losman?

You can pick either QB before 1pm EST on Sunday; if you accept my wager then one of us will get two 11th round picks, the other will get neither. If you think Losman or Frye will do better, take me on.

*I'm drunk
**I'm assuming neither of us taking a keeper in the 11th round next year.
FTR, I'm the Cedric Benson Busts.


neuroman, don't think the gambler in me doesn't love the sounds of this. Fact is, I haven't seen or studied any of these guys enough to make a decent asessment so it's basically a coin-flip for me. In any case, I'm in an ugly position since I've got to count on these guys as my QB in the playoffs.

All 3 guys have comparable schedules remaining.

Though, the biggest concern I have is probably that other players might feel that it effects the competitive balance. Either way oneof us get 2 #11s and that would effect everyone. Probably not fair. Some oher side-bet would perhaps be better.
  #22  
Old 12-10-2005, 06:08 PM
MysteryFellow63427 is offline
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Posts: 3,996
Competetive balance... fairness... bah!

Actually, you probably have a good point.
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