He Hate Me Keeper League Mid-Season Review

This thread is a follow up to the evaluations which immediately followed our fantasy football draft here, in particular Hamlet’s post (#173) and my own (#179). I looked at what was figured to be each teams best pick, worst pick, and keeper potential both then and now. For Best and Worst Pick then, I mostly entered Hamlet’s judgements. Where I have substituted my own (usually because Hamlet did not give a definite answer), I marked the space with an “*”. I also looked at the impact that injuries have had on each team.

I expect that I have made many mistakes and ommissions (especially concerning the injuries), and I encourage everyone to point out where this is so, and where you disagree with my opinions; you know your teams better than I do.

For those who aren’t in the league but are still interested in this thread (yes, all none of you), the league rules can be found here. The most important league rule to keep in mind is that for any player designated as a keeper, the owner must forfeit a draft choice 2 rounds higher than the round in which that player was originally selected. There are 14 teams, listed here in the same order they first drafted in.

Since I’ve been working on this since 2 AM and my brain is no longer functioning properly, I can’t think of a clever segway into the main body. So, here it is:

Rhinosaurs(neuroman) – 7-1, 710.5
Best Pick
Then: Priest Holmes (1st Round)
Now: Roy Williams (8th) – 17th ranked WR this year, plus a great keeper next year. (Ok, it’s really still Priest, but that’s so boring.)

Worst Pick
Then: *Chris Chambers (4) – We knew Miami’s offense was going to stink, and there were receivers with more upside still on the board.
Now: Quentin Griffin (3) – That worked out about as well as Tatum Bell (7) . . . but it doesn’t matter, since he stayed true to Denver and scooped up Reuben (These Waiver Rules Suck) Droughns in free agency.

Keeper Potential
Then: 9 (1st)
Now: 8 (2nd) – Bell won’t be worth a 5th rounder next year, but Roy Williams and A. Boldin (9) are still good to great values.

Injuries?: Other than Boldin, who was injured prior to the draft, this hasn’t been an issue.
Baltimore Wierdos – 4-5, 582.4
Best Pick
Then: “Terrell (13) and Bledsoe (15). And, of course, LT (1).”
Now: Bledsoe was dropped, David Terrell was awful and then packaged w/ Tomlinson in a trade to Mundi. His best pick was Marcus Robinson (8), who is currently the 10th rated WR . . . who he dropped and is currently a regular starter on my team. :slight_smile:

Worst Pick
Then: Ravens D (4)
Now: I agreed that Ravens D in the 4th was bad at the time, but they’ve proven me wrong. They’re the highest scoring DEF by a lot. The difference between Baltimore’s D and the #2 DEF is 27 points. The difference between #2 (Pit) and #15 (TB) is also 27 points.

His worst pick was Matt Hassleback (2). 4th QB taken (not counting the Fanboys’ anomylous selection of Pennington in the 1st), he’s currently the 15th ranked QB – you’ve got to get better value out of your 2nd round pick in such a deep league.

Keeper Potential
Then: 2.5 (13th)
Now: 2.5 (t11th) – Predictably, Eli (10) is the only valuable keeper.

Injuries?: Todd Heap (5) has been out since Week 2, and William Green (6) got hurt very early and opened the door for Lee Suggs (more than it already was open, even).
4th and 19 – 6-3, 630.43
Best Pick
Then: Chris Brown
Now: (tie) Chris Brown (3) and Willis McGahee (7). Brown has indeed been a stud at RB, while McGahee netted him Torry Holt in a straight up trade w/ me (not bad for a 7th rounder). Emmitt Smith (8) has also been shockingly good.

Worst Pick
Then: *Deuce McAllister (1) – Only because I had him rated 7th pre-draft and he was taken 3rd.
Now: Deuce McAllister – He’s currently the 24th rated RB. Part of that is due to time missed w/ injuries, but he’s only been adequate even when he’s played.

Keeper Potential
Then: 7 (4th)
Now: 4 (t7th) – McGahee now scores his touchdowns for me, and only Lee Evans looks like a valuable keeper. Brandon Stokley (14) might be a good keeper if the Colts don’t re-sign Harrison and he gets promoted to #2 WR.

Injuries?: McAllister’s injury stung, but not as much as it might have since this team has good depth at RB w/ Suggs (5) and Emmit (8) and of course Brown.
T. Rex – 4-5, 507.43
Best Pick
Then: “The first 5 rounds” – They sure seemed like all solid picks at the time.
Now: Ahman Green (1) – Got what he needed w/ the 4th pick: a stud RB. Trent Green (3) has also panned out. Othwerwise, his draft picks have generally disappointed.

Worst Pick
Then: Garrison Hearst (7)
Now: Hearst. Charlie Garner (4) was also disastrous, though he at least has the excuse of being on injured reserve.

Keeper Potential
Then: 4 (9th)
Now: 4 (t7th) – Ashley Lelie (8) looks like a good value next year. Otherwise zilch.

Injuries?: Garner (4) is on IR, leaving him with Dorsey Levens, Kevin Faulk, and James Mungro (35.85 total fantasy points this year *combined[/i) to fight over his #2 RB slot. Yikes.
Mundi’s Morning Blue – 5-4, 631.57
Best Pick
Then: Warrick Dunn (7)
Now: Ricky Williams (16) – Duh. Turned a 16th round pick into Marvin Harrison and Rudi Johnson in a blockbuster keeper trade.

Other than that, David Givens (9) has been a great value.

Worst Pick
Then: Keyshaun Johnson (6)
Now: Brian Westbrook (2) – A 2nd round pick who’s scored only 1 TD and is currently the 28th ranked RB (not that this could have been forseen), though Mundi eventually packaged him w/ Rudi Johnson to get Tomlinson, so I can’t be too harsh. Jerry Rice (10) was also a waste.

Keeper Potential
Then: 3 (t11th)
Now: 2.5 (t11th) – This would have been a 10 had he held on to Ricky. As it is, David Givens (9) and maybe Josh McCown (11) are all there is, and I don’t think either will be a significant upgrade over what he could otherwise expect to get with the 7th and 9th round picks next year.

Injuries?: Westbrook missed, what, one game for Mundi? He’s avoided the injury bug.
BithloMulletRevival – 7-2, 608.33
Best Pick
Then: Peter Warrick (7)
Now: Peyton Manning (1) – 300 yds, 3.5 TDs per game. Gambled with a QB w/ the 6th overall pick, and he’s ridden his Marino-like numbers to a 7-2 record.

Worst Pick
Then: Marcel Shipp (8)
Now: Eddie George (5). Close call between him and Shipp (neither of whom are still on the team), but George gets the nod for being picked higher. Warrick would’ve been in the running, but he gets a pass for being injured.

Keeper Potential
Then: 1 (14th)
Now: 1.5 (13th) – Simms (15) has a shot at winning the right to QB a crappy offense next year, Muhsin Muhammed (10) might be worth keeping around (barely). Otherwise, zilch.

Injuries?: Corey Dillon missed a little time. Chris Simms would have been a fair backup QB.
Pentium None – 5-4, 573.53
Best Pick
Then: *Charles Rogers (5) – I was a believer, and I was desperately hoping he’d fall to me 7 picks later.
Now: Tiki Barber (4) – The 25th RB selected, he’s currently the 3rd rated RB by a healthy margin. Ben Roethlisberger (14) was also excellent.

Worst Pick
Then: *Stephen Davis (2) – 30 year old power backs with speedy youngsters behind them on the depth chart do not, as a rule, put up big numbers. I wouldn’t have touched him w/ 10-foot pole tipped with a condom for protection.
Now: Vick (3) – I’d say Davis, but he’s been out practically the whole season with an injury. Vick was a big gamble (one I probably would have taken if he had fallen to me), but it didn’t pay off. Could’ve paired Terrell Owens w/ Randy Moss instead. Scary.

Keeper Potential
Then: 4.5 (8th)
Now: 5.5 (5th) – Rogers (5) won’t be back, but Ben R. (14) looks like an excellent keeper for the next two years.

Injuries?: Probably the saddest team in the league, injury-wise. Davis and Rogers, 2 of his first 5 picks, have basically missed the whole season. That he’s still in contention is something to be proud of.
Omni’s Omnipotents – 5-4, 486.77
Best Pick
Then: *Stephen Alexander (1) – Alexander w/ the 8th overall pick was a total steal.
Now: Still Alexander. 2nd best back in the league.

Worst Pick
Then: *Steve McNair (3) – He could’ve gotten almost the same expected value 2 rounds later. Without taking into consideration the very disappointing year he has in fact had, McNAir wasn’t nearly enough of an upgrade over someone like Marc Bulger to justify reaching in the 3rd round (not that I’m one to talk: see Brooks, Aaron).
Now: Still McNAir.

Keeper Potential
Then: 5.5 (7th)
Now: 1 (14th) – Michael Clayton (13) would have saved this score, but he’s been dropped. I don’t see a single player I’d keep. Jason Witten (11) and Brandon Lloyd (7) are the only ones who are close.

Injuries?: McNair’s been touch and go, and Julius Jones (5) had potential.
Balls(Chitwood) – 2-7, 568.77
Best Pick
Then: T.O. (3)
Now: Still Terrell Owens. Best WR in the league (by a wide margin now that Moss has been out of commission for a couple weeks), but the 8th WR selected. Joe Horn and Derrick Mason being selected ahead of him are especially unfortunate.

David Carr (11) was also splendid.

Worst Pick
Then: *Jimmy Smith (5) – Seemed like he should’ve taken a safe QB instead of the aging (risky) Smith. Carr’s emergence made this a moot point.
Now: Travis Henry (2) – Lousy production in Buffalo’s stagnant offense when he was the starter, now Chitwood’s #2 pick is a backup.

Keeper Potential
Then: 8 (t2nd)
Now: 7 (4th) – Would’ve been higher if he hadn’t dropped Reggie Williams (9), or if Larry Fitzgerald (6) was putting up slightly better numbers (as it is a 4th round pick might be asking too much next year). Gains a lot of ground with Carr for a 9th rounder next year.

Injuries?: Gannon (14) is out, but no serious injury problems that I’m aware of.
New York Fanboys – 1-8, 457.36
Best Pick
Then: *Curtis Martin (3) – He went just about where he was supposed to (towards the end of the 3rd). . .
Now: Martin – . . . but no one expected him to perform this well.

Worst Pick
Then: Chad Pennington (1) – In other words, not taking Tiki Barber first if the aim was to load up on New York stars.
Now: See “Then.”

Keeper Potential
Then: 3(t11th)
Now: 3 (10th) – Lamont Jordan (7) has lost keeper value since the draft, leaving only J.P. Losman (15), who will certainly start next season, as a good bet.

Injuries?: Chad’s out for 2-4 weeks starting now.
Falcons Twist (Munch) – 4-5, 543.82
Best Pick
Then: Jamal Lewis (1) – A good find at the 11th overall pick.
Now: Thomas Jones (3) – Essentially the same production as Lewis, but two rounds later.

Worst Pick
Then: Deshaun Foster (6) – Hamlet: “Letting Price, Fitzgerald, Williams, and other good wrs go by to get a fourth running back who, even when healthy and good, won’t get the goalline carries, was a reach.”
Now: Kevan Barlow (2) – Edges out Boo Williams (7). Maybe taking an unproven RB on a poor offense instead of perpetual producer on the World Champions (Dillon) was a mistake.

Keeper Potential
Then: 6.5 (5th)
Now: 4.5 (6th) – Foster (6) can’t be worth a 4th rounder next year, unless too large a number of good 2nd tier RBs are being kept (which I doubt). Larry Johnson (11) seems very unlikely to assume the starting role in KC any time soon, though Carson Palmer (12) will be better next year (he’d pretty much have to be).

Injuries?: Lewis for suspended for two games, and Thomas Jones was injured for a couple.
I Need More Cowbell – 2-7, 425.55 (Formerly “DerieerExtraordinaire”)
Best Pick
Then: Lamar Gordon (6) – Hamlet: “A starting running back on a run first team in the 7th round? Fuck you.”
Now: Drew Brees (FA) – You could argue for Harrison (1) or Rudi Johnson (2), but they’ve been shipped off to Mundi for Bob Marley (16) and, besides, neither did more than barely justify their draft position when they were with the Cowbells. Brees, on the other hand, has been the 4th best QB in the league (by a decent margin), and was an absolute steal in the 17th round.

Or, if you’re a stickler: Onterrio Smith (10).

Worst Pick
Then: Jake Delhomme (6)
Now: Delhomme, but it’s close. This being a rebuilding year, there were lots of nominees. Steve Smith (3) gained 60 yds. before his season ended. Michael Bennett (4) has been in Injury/RB Committee hell all season. Stallworth (5) continues to disappoint those who are waiting for his breakout year. Gordan (7): injured, gone for the year. Deion Branch (8), out since Week 2. Tommy Maddox (11): injured, then benched. Rashaun Woods (15) hasn’t gotten off the practice squad.

Keeper Potential
Then: 3.5 (10th)
Now: 10 (1st) – Like I said, it’s a rebuilding year. With Ricky Williams in the 14th and O. Smith in the 8th, this team starts off strong at RB next year. Dominic Rhodes (14) is a longshot with homerun potential if the Colts don’t re-sign Edge and don’t sign a replacement. Even Woods may be worth keeping with a 13th round pick. Dangerous team next year.

Injuries?: Oh, Jesus, yes. Forget what I said about Pentium None: this is the saddest team in the league, injury-wise. See above.
HamletpongIljtagha’ [sp?] – 6-3, 589.97
Best Pick
Then: *Chris Perry (11) – Only because Hamlet didn’t give a firm answer on this, and I was pissed when he stole Perry from me.
Now: Daunte Culpepper (2) – Backbone of the team, though we’ll see how he does without Moss to lean on.

Rod Smith (8) was also very solid.

Worst Pick
Then: Mike Vanderjagt (7)
Now: Vanderjagt – “Yeah, I’m that guy who picked a fucking kicker a round before anybody else.” Not only that, he picked a sub-par kicker a round before anybody else. Mike V. is currently the 20th rated Kicker in the league: the Colts’ drives never stall, so he never gets to kick field goals.

If this was an auto-pick, as Hamlet implies, then his worst pick would be T.J. Duckett (5).

Keeper Potential
Then: 8 (t2nd)
Now: 4 (t7th) – Stephen Jackson (6) in the 4th round next year? Probably not (or is Faulk’s contract up?). Justin Fargas (9) in the 7th? Pushing it. Tim rattay (13) in the 11th? I hope not. I think Chris Perry (11) was worth a shot, but Hamlet dropped him.

Injuries?: Nothing significant that I’m aware of; even Marshall Faulk has managed to stay healthy.
Varlos’ Zzzzzzz – 4-5, 548.55
Best Pick
Then: Moe Williams (8) – Seemed like a steal at the time.
Now: Javon Walker (5) – 2nd-highest scoring WR in the league, by a pretty good margin. I only wish I’d taken him in the 6th instead of the 5th round, as he’d be a sure keeper.

Byron Leftwich (10) gets an honorable mention, especially considering his keeper value.

Worst Pick
Then: Travis Minor (12)
Now: Kevin Jones (4) – The Minor pick was bad, but this was inexcusable. Did I really think that he’d be worth a 2nd round pick next year? Did I really think that he’d outperform, say, Tiki Barber this year? Yes and yes. Ugh.

Marty Booker (7) was also terrible.

Keeper Potential
Then: 6 (6th)
Now: 7.5 (3rd) – Trading Holt for McGahee (7) is looking better every week; he’s a top 5 keeper. Leftwich is a lock in exchange for next year’s 8th rounder. Javon Walker in the 3rd next year? Probably not, but ask me again when the season’s over. (Advice, anyone?)

Injuries?: I think the Kellen Winslow (6) injury was much more damning than most people believe. He runs like a WR, and it’s not like the Browns have a host of other targets on offense. I honestly expected him to have a 1000yd/6TD type of season, making him a great value in the 6th round and good keeper next year. Oh well. Kevin Jones was also dinged up a bit, but it couldn’t have mattered less.

Nice summary. I was one of those idiots who passed on T.O. but at least Chad Johnson is a slightly more defendable pick than Joe Horn. (Or is he?)

Top Ten Keepers and the round they could be drafted next year, in <ahem> no particular order:
Roy Williams (6)
Anquan Boldin (7)
Bob Marley (14)
Big Ben “I can’t believe I ate the whole” Roethlisberger (11)
Antonio Gates (10)
Onterrio Smith (8)
Willis McGahee (5 - also probably the highest picked keeper we’ll see next year)

  • after this it gets murkier -
    Keenan McCardell (8 - if he wasn’t dropped*?)
    Ashley Lelie? (6) or David Givens? (7)
    David Carr? (9)

I’d like to hear other people’s take on it. I may have overlooked some guys. There are some RBs that have breakout potential like Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, and Labrandon Toefield, but those type of guys will either have to move up the depth chart or get traded to produce next year.

I would like to note at this time there are a couple of rules issues that I’m not sure we ever reached a consensus on.

1) Keeper Lifetime
Steelerphan’s league page says 3 seasons (meaning 4 seasons total, I presume), I recall myself and at least one or two others voting for 2 seasons (3 seasons total.) I plan to review the old thread for the previous opinions of participants.

*2) Keepers dropped to FA status and picked back up
If you draft someone, drop him, then later pick him up, can you still keep him? I think Steelerphan said no to this one, but I don’t remember if we ever debated it. Personally I’m fine either way, but impassioned pleas from the peanut gallery are welcome as always.

In closing, I shall deride Baba (I Need More Cowbell) as being the ONLY team that has lost to EllisDee’s Fanboys. [Nelson]Ha-ha![/Nelson]

Now if he’ll just pony up for a membership here, he can mock back at me. :smiley:

Also, should I mortgage the future and trade Boldin or Williams to make a better run at this year? Or just go with my current powerhouse squad? Bad advice is welcome.

Injuries have really sucked for me this year. But I think Big Ben is a fabulous keeper. Did I really pick him up in the 14th round?

Twice I have composed long and detailed responses to this thread.

Twice I have had explorer crash while attempting to submit. A wiser man might decide that the lesson of this experience is: “compose in word processor, idiot.” I prefer to look upon it as th football gods warning me not to devulge my strategy prematurely. So . . . I will only say that some of you might be surprised at teh players I keep going into next year’s draft.

Unless I miss the playoffs and end up drafting at the top of the odd rounds. Then you pretty much have me nailed.

I agree with you, but tell me who at the time would have predicted it?

I think there are a couple of players who could be kept higher than McGahee - as high as Tiki in round 2 (and I haven’t given up hope on Lee Suggs, but it’s looking unlikely he’ll be worth keeping that high). Javon Walker in round 3, and maybe even Reggie Wayne in round 4.

I disagree with your assessment of Stokley, Varlos - he’s got to be worth a 12th round pick next year. And I expect I’ll be keeping Harrington in round 10.

Certainly not me. In another league, I traded Peyton Manning for Hassleback and help at WR prior to Week 1. That’s worked out just swell. This is also a league that gives +1 for completions and -1 for incompletions, so twice Matt Hassleback has put up negative points for my team.

I agree that Stokley is probably worth keeping next year (Harrington too, but it’s closer). I just don’t think he’ll be that big of a bargain unless he moves up the depth chart.
neuroman: I believe the rule was a player can be kept twice, so three seasons total. I also believe that a player who is dropped can’t be kept by anyone the following year. I could be mistaken about these, however.


Silly Germans.