OK, here we are in Week 7. Let’s take a quick look-see at my running totals so far: 37-49-1 (42.5%) ATS, 28-26 on the O/U and 15-25 on OMNI picks. As we’ll all agree, this sucks. I figure I need to set some new goals for the season to come. With 168 games left to play, I need to go 88-80 for the rest of the season ATS to reach a .500 mark, that’s about a 52.5% clip which is certainly attainable. I need something a bit more ambitious I think, let’s say the goal is to be at .500 by week 10. So I need to average between a 8-6 and 9-5 record over the next 3 weeks. As such I’m going to start looking at things a little earlier in the week and perhaps focus on stats and injury reports in more detail. I’ll revisit the games with no line a little later in the week once they are posted.
Sunday, Oct. 23
**ST. LOUIS NL New Orleans NL **
We’ll check in later.
**MINNESOTA NL Green Bay NL **
Again, we’ll check back later.
**Indianapolis 15 HOUSTON 45 **
After those Indy/St Louis and Seattle/Houston games last week, I don’t know how anyone could confidently pick the Texans to cover. It just doesn’t add up, home game or not. I might look for some juicy stats to talk me out of this pick later, but right now the gut says pretty definitively that this is a no-brainer. The big question is if the Colts will allow Texas to score at all and/or cover that 45 points all by themselves.
The pick: Colts, Under
**CINCINNATI 1 Pittsburgh 43 **
They’re saying that Big Ben is expected to suit up, and the Steelers have shown the ability to win games on the road against good teams. However, the Bengals are simply firing on all cylinders and the Steelers defense hasn’t yet faced what you’d call a scary passing attack, the Pats are pretty good and Brady lit them up for 372 yds. On the flipside, the Bengals haven’t faced too many powerful offenses themselves. The Bears had the best running game and it was pretty effective against the Bengals. In the end, I’m going to side with the healthier team, which is also the home team.
The pick: Bengals, Over
**PHILADELPHIA 4 San Diego 47½ **
This game is a little tricky. LT is a force of nature and the Eagles couldn’t run against my flag football team. San Diego’s defense is good, but not great, while Philly’s is supposedly one of the best. A closer look at the stats tells a different story with the two defenses being almost equal with Philly playing a weaker schedule. It is a home game for the Eagles and they are coming in off a bye week. It’s a tight game, without a doubt, and should be a excellent one to watch. The key stat for me? The Eagles are ranked 23rd against the run with teams like 49ers & Raiders on the schedule.
The pick: Chargers, Under
**MIAMI 2 Kansas City 43 **
I don’t understand this line. KC is the better team in almost every regard. Miami has been a totally different team at home, this is true, but this is a team that lost to the Jets for gods sake. One caveat that makes me hesitate is that KC has struggled to run the ball a little over the last few weeks and the Dolphins are solid against the run. Miami is soft against the run in the red zone however, an area where the Chiefs are one of the best. Take the points.
The pick: Chiefs, Over
**CLEVELAND 3 Detroit 35 **
Harrington and Garcia are splitting snaps and they go on the road to face an up and down Browns team. The Browns have so far gotten their two wins over the NFC North, and that trend might continue. The Lions offense is pretty beat up, especially at WR. The only way they get a win is if Joey Harrington realizes his back is against the wall and plays like his ass is on fire. I don’t see it happening, but you won’t see me putting money on the Browns any time soon.
The pick: Browns, Over
**WASHINGTON 12 San Francisco 37 **
Well, I’m starting Brunell over Carson Palmer in the FFL this week, so I guess you could say I’m expecting an offensive explosion from the Redskins. However, they haven’t exactly been a juggernaut so there’s certainly a potential for them to stall and let the 49ers cover that spread. The trade of Rattay in a way should make you feel a little safer betting against the 49ers since it’d be a real shock to see Alex Smith go on the road in his 2nd start and get a win. It’s not like the Redskins D sucks either.
The pick: Redskins, Under
**SEATTLE 3 Dallas 46 **
Difficult one for me, the Seahawks are in the middle of an ugly off the field incident that may or may not have an effect. The Cowboys haven’t quite been the picture of bliss either and they lost a favorite target for Bledsoe and have a banged up backfield. Nonetheless J. Jones should be suiting up and getting the bulk of the snaps again, but the advantage is still with Mr. Alexander. The Seahawks have a depleted WR core still, and Dallas’ D has been playing exceedingly well. When in doubt go with the best player at home.
The pick: Seahawks, Under
**OAKLAND 3 Buffalo 40 **
Moss is doubtful and that has to change the dynamic of the Oakland attack by big margin. Both teams have been really poor against the run, and it’s never a good idea to wager on a crappy QB on the road. I’m at a loss to understand why Norv Turner keeps getting work, I think you’d be hard pressed to say they played a decent game since that opener against the Pats. However, with the exception of the LT show they’ve been in just about every game. I feel like McGahee could single-handedly dominate this game, but I’m too chicken to hitch my wagon to Kelly Holcomb flying cross country into the Black Hole and getting a W. This one may take more consideration later.
The pick: Raiders, Over
**CHICAGO 1 Baltimore 31 **
The Bears have the better defense and the better running game. Even if Orton has another bad game, I still like the Bears chances since the Ravens offense will not score against the Bears D.
The pick: Bears, Over
**ARIZONA 3 Tennessee 46 **
The Titans have lost Drew Bennett and most of their ability to stretch the field. The Cards defense is still pretty competitive, especially at home, and I’m not sure Chris Brown will be enough to outscore a Cardinals passing game that’s been pretty scary at times. To ice the choice the Titans sport the 25th defense in the league.
The pick: Cardinals, Over
**N.Y. GIANTS 1½ Denver 47 **
The Cowboys shut down the Giants last week and the Broncos have a better overall defense. This time the game is in Jersey, so a Denver doesn’t have that big advantage, but the way Plummer and Co have been playing should scare Ellis Dee. Somehow Shanahan has sorted them out and got his team playing with a bit of a chip on it’s shoulder. The Giants D won’t slow down any aspects of the Denver offense and while Eli will put up decent numbers at home, Plummer will outscore him.
The pick: Broncos, Over
Monday, Oct. 24
ATLANTA 7 N.Y. Jets 40
Both NYC teams in primetime this week. Once again Vinny takes his crew on the road against a formidable defense, and once again I see no reason to expect the team to rally. Atlanta is better than Buffalo in every facet and the Bills won by 10 last week, and that was with a unexpectedly big game from Martin. He won’t repeat that against the Falcons defense and I’m smelling a blow out.
The pick: Falcons, Over
