OK, folks. I’m trying out a new format here. I was wasting too much time re-typing and formatting the stuff I’d try and C/P from websites. We’re going to go with straight up twitchy gambler style. If you’re unfamiliar, here’s the deal. HOME TEAM is in caps. Favorite is on the left. Point spread is in between the teams, and the over-under is to the far right.
We’ve got our first set of teams with a bye week. They are: Baltimore, Detroit, Houston, Washington. Think any of these teams are enjoying their time off? I’m sure Gibbs slept well for a little bit, but they haven’t exactly been dominant. The others? Bet TUMS sales are through the roof.
Now, here’s to hoping that my percentages improve. We’ve got 2 games under our belts, and as a result we know a little bit more about the quality of most of these teams. Hope everyone is enjoying themselves, and feel free to chime in tell me I’m a jackass every once in a while.
Here’s the past threads if anyone wants to follow along.
Onward and upward.
Sunday, Sept. 25
**ST LOUIS (-6½) Tennessee O/U: 45½ **
The Rams have played for shit this season, and the Titans are coming of a pretty solid win. Statistically the Rams are pretty far out front of the Titans on offense, and they are 14 and 15 respectively on defense. Looking at the opponents, I think it’s safe to say that the Titans have played a tougher schedule. The Rams schedule so far might have the weakest 2 games any team has ever played….and they are only 1-1. It all comes down to whether Martz is smart enough to realize that a persistent running game will beat the Titans. The most telling thing I see is that the Titan’s have yet to sustain a scoring drive since the first possession of the season. Of course they’ve played two top notch defenses, but it has to make you nervous when a team hasn’t mustered anything consistent against a team that will probably put up at least 24 points this week. Past performances favor the Titans, but we’ve all seen the Rams run up 40 in the dome. Call this one a crap shoot. In the end, I’m taking the good coach over the crappy one.
The pick: Titans, Under
**PHILADELPHIA (-7½) Oakland O/U: 47 **
All everyone is going to talk about is Moss and TO. When it comes down to it, neither guy will decide things. The difference is going to be the Louie Anderson soft middle of the Oakland line versus Philly’s ground game. I’d feel better if they had a good between the tackles guy, but Westbrook will get it done. Another factor is going to be the number of mistakes Collins makes. Philly’s D will capitalize. Statistically, both teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum in just about every category. Frankly, with the game in Philly I see little reason for the spread to be as low as it is.
The pick: Eagles, Over
**Cincinnati (-3) CHICAGO O/U: 40 **
Tough game for me to judge. I sorta went into things here in this post. The Bears have played really well, much better than people realize. The Bengals have looked unstoppable, but upon closer examination they haven’t exactly been firmly tested. Certainly not by a team with a top flight defense. The Bears D could force Palmer and company fits and create several turnovers. Of course, that would put the pressure on the Bears offense to hold up its end which could be a long shot. Love Chaz’s game, but the Bears secondary is really really good. The Cincy D hasn’t played very well against a pair of teams with average offenses, that could allow Thomas Jones room to operate. I’m going to be a homer and pick the Bears to defense the house.
The pick: Bears, Under
**N.Y. JETS (NL) Jacksonville O/U: NL **
Well, I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again. At least until Ellis Dee goes postal. The Jets suck. No line on the game due to Leftwich’s status. I won’t spend too much time discussing this one now and will reassess if the spread comes up. Briefly, I think the Jags need to be very concerned about the loss of Darius. CuMar is expected to play, though I think the Jags will contain him. I’m guessing the Jets will be a 3 point fave if Byron plays, and if so, I like the Jags to get it done on the road behind a big day from Fragile Freddy.
The pick: Jags, tentatively
**MINNESOTA (-3½) New Orleans O/U: 44½ **
I have a hard time picturing Minny favored over anyone, but after the mess the Saints left (understandably of course) last week I suppose it’s reasonable. I think it’s pointless to look at the numbers going into this one. New Orleans could do anything, and the Vikings can’t be as inept on offense as they’ve looked. Both could be called walking anomalies. No way that the Saints make that many unforced errors, and the Vikes won’t stop Deuce. Then again, Culpepper could return to form back inside the comfort of the dome. I’m going to take a chance and believe the Saints when they say they were effected by the MNF spectacle and assume they are more like that week one team here.
The pick: Saints, Over
**Carolina (-3) MIAMI O/U: 36½ **
Well, I think that 3 point spread is pretty damn insulting for the Panthers. They come off a big win against the champs. They are visiting a team that just got beaten badly last week, not by a powerhouse either. Statistically these teams are very even, similar offense and defense. The difference between them, as I see it, is the running game. So far Brown hasn’t shown much and while Saban keeps pounding it they aren’t getting much per attempt, only 2.7 yards. In contrast the Panthers backs are up to 4.2 and 4.9 yards respectively. Those are the kinds of numbers I love.
The pick: Panthers, Over
**INDIANAPOLIS (-13½) Cleveland O/U: 47 **
Wow, big number. Indy has sputtered offensively so far, and here’s they’re expecting them to drop a bomb on the Browns? That’s what I call forgiving. Granted, I see very little room to rationalize a Browns win here, but the question is how productive will the Indy O be? Eh, who am I kidding. They will blow the doors off, Cleveland hasn’t stopped anyone giving up 55% on 3rd downs and over 430 yards a game.
The pick: Colts, Under
**BUFFALO (NL) Atlanta O/U: NL **
Another off game. Vick’s status is uncertain. I like the Bills at home, all things being equal. Buffalo shuts down the pass, and while they’ve been run on, I don’t know that you can be totally one dimensional and go win on the road. We’ll check in later when the line comes up.
The pick: Bills, tentatively
**Tampa Bay (-3½) GREEN BAY O/U: 37½ **
Ok, I need to try and contain myself. Be objective. Don’t gloat. Deep breaths……
The Packers and Favre are 3 and a half point dogs at home, against the Bucs, you don’t see that very often do ya? The Pack D has been so awful that they made Joey Harrington look good. Can you believe that miss a bum like Al Harris? How happy are the guys who drafted Cadillac in their FF leagues? Me? Um, I drafted JJ Arrington. What are you looking at! You should probably expect another huge day from him when he lines up against these guys. Fact of the matter is that the only way the Packers are winning games this year is if they can outscore the opponent. Considering how Favre has played, a 76.1 rating so far, that’s not likely. Just for fun, Brian Griese has a rating of 82.9. [sub]Just for kicks, Peyton is at 74.7 and Orton is at 74.4. :eek:[/sub] If the Bucs are for real, this game will be a walk.
The pick: Bucs, Over
**SEATTLE (-6) Arizona O/U: 41½ **
I hate trying to figure out what the Seahawks are gonna do. I always expect them to play well, being prepared for them to just pound the ball on some poor sap. Then they suck, week after week. Finally I quit on them and then they go on a 4 game win streak. Hasselbeck has been as expected. Alexander is putting up big yards. The defense is 11th overall. Why exactly are they so damn iffy? Arizona on the other hand has just screwed the pooch after being everyone’s sleeper darling. The complete lack of a running game has been a major issue. Their defense has played unexpectedly well, and are solidly in the top ten in every category except rushing. Of course they are playing Alexander this week, I don’t expect that ranking to improve. Honestly, I think Seattle will win this game, but 6 points feels like a little too much. I reserve the right to change my mind on this game….
The pick: Arizona, Over
**PITTSBURGH (-3) New England O/U: 42 **
The game of the week. You’re not going to believe it, but I’m going to pick against the champs not once, but twice in a row. This time I’m upping the stakes and betting against them at home! I said it after week one, and I’ll say it again now. They are soft against the run in the middle. Not what you want to be against Pittsburgh. I do however expect this to be a rather low scoring game. Neither teams passing game will be dynamic. Each team will come out cautious and measured. In the end I think both teams play relatively mistake free. Frankly I don’t think Dillon can carry the load against this front. I know that Belichick will certainly have something cute up his sleeve for Big Ben, but with the pressure of the playoffs gone and a little more experience I think he’ll continue to play steady enough for Parker to rush them to the win.
The pick: Steelers, Under
**Dallas (-6½) SAN FRANCISCO O/U: 41 **
Big D getting a TD on the road? Last time SF played at home they took down the Rams, the Cowboys haven’t exactly dominated the teams they’ve played. Seems like it might be a stretch. One thing that SF has managed to do this season is contain the run, and that’s Dallas’ strength. Two immeasurable factors that I think come into play. First, Parcells has been beating the shit out of his guys after folding last week. They’ll be foaming at the mouth. The other, San Fran got flat out humiliated last week after getting a little uppity following the good start. Their confidence has to be pretty well shaken. That’s enough for me.
The pick: Cowboys, Under
**SAN DIEGO (-5½) N.Y. Giants O/U: 42 **
Do we finally figure out if the Giants are legit or not? No more games where they get a dozen turnovers, special teams TDs and ridiculous field position? Will Schottenheimer manage to get his guys to play a clean, complete game? The oddsmakers obviously agree with the assessment that the Giants aren’t totally credited with their record so far. It’s not often that a 0-2 teams is favored by nearly a TD over a 2-0 team. The Giants are near the bottom in every offensive category, however the Chargers haven’t been much better. Defensively, the Giants are at the bottom too. Now they are going away from home for the first time, and have to find a way to step it up. I’m going to follow my instincts on this one and figure the Chargers get this must-win game.
The pick: Chargers, Over
Monday, Sept. 26
**DENVER (-3) Kansas City O/U: 48 **
I really couldn’t tell you what I think of the Broncos. I can tell you they probably shouldn’t be favored over the Chiefs after that display against the Dolphins. They were consistently passed on by Gus Frerotte. Soak that in for a second. Then of course Brees came in a laid a turd at Mile High. I’m blaming San Diego’s ineptness for that. Which frankly is making me rethink the previous pick, but back to the topic at hand. Two convincing wins by the Chiefs give me the confidence to pick them to go into the mountains and grab a win. The Chiefs rush defense was pretty stout in both games and if they put the game in Plummer’s hands you can always feel pretty confident in the outcome.
The pick: Cheifs, Over
