NFL Predictions Week 7

In My Humble Opinion
1

Another crappy week. At least I’m not the only one getting killed. I read on ESPN that over the last two weeks underdogs are an incredible 22-4-2 against the spread. Wow!

I saw some predictors with 2 wins ATS last week. I did a little better than that, but still not up to SDMB standards. It will be better this week.

Some quick fantasy notes:

-Chrebet is out. Swayne, not Hatchette, will start in his place.

-Faulk is questionable and will probably rest.

-Crowell, MRobinson, Biak…all out for the year.

-Hasselbeck will start for SEA.

-Minnis will be the 3rd WR in KC again. RWayne gets the start again for IND.

-Grbac is questionable. Willie Roaf is doubtful.

On to the picks:

Colts 31 at Chiefs 27
I flip-flopped on this one all week. Not so much over who will win, but rather on the score. The stats indicate it should be a high-scoring affair. But Thursday games are notoriously low scoring games. However, it’s not like these two teams have exactly “left it all on the field” lately.
START:Manning, Harrison, James, Green, DAlexander, Gonzo, Holmes.

Jaguars 13 at Ravens 23
The Jags are still beat up, Boselli’s now gone for the year, and the Ravens are hopping mad. Cunningham will run the offense better than Grbac and will see time whether Grbac starts or not.
START: McCardell, Stover, Sharpe.

Vikings 13 at Bucs 14
Grimace (the fat guy in the purple coat) thinks the draw is the way to spark the running game. Maybe once. It won’t happen again, certainly not againt the Bucs front 7. My boy Travis Prentice ruined any chance he had with that screwed up move on the kick-off return.
START: Dunn.

Bengals 20 at Lions 19
The loss of Crowell means the d-backs can focus on Morton. Foster won’t be a threat. Dillon will break out this week, especially since I just traded him away.
START: Dillon, Hanson.

49ers 10 at Bears 24
Sorry stuffinb, but the Niners don’t have anything the Bears can’t counter. Just imagine how bad the Bears would be if Matthews didn’t get hurt. The coaching staff may kill this team’s chances at some point.
START: A-Train.

Saints 14 at Rams 34
On side kick? With a HUGE lead? Beautiful! I love it. It’s especially nice to do it to a team you probably won’t see again for three years.
START: All Rams. (Oh, trade Cam Cleeland now if you have him. He won’t keep up the pace and he’ll get hurt. His value is high now. Sell.)

Jets 17 at Panthers 14
I wouldn’t touch this game on a bet in million years. The Panthers could destroy the Jets in this one, but again, coaching will ruin it. You beat the Jets this year by showing run early but passing. Then, when they’re on their heels, you pull some draws, sweeps, and swing passes. Everyone looks at the stats, sees how bad the rush defense is and tries to just rush all day. Hello? Anyone can stop the run when they know it’s gonna be plain vanilla. Look at the Rams big plays with Canidate - a lateral and a straight snap with Warner out on the wing.
START: Huntley, CuMartin

Cardinals 24 at Cowboys 10
Now the Cowboys are down to Stoener and Leaf at QB? Whatever. Seder’s their biggest playmaker thus far.
START: Boston

Raiders 20 at Eagles 16
It’s inevitable. The Iggles can’t get too far ahead of the Giants in the division.
START: Akers, Garner.

Patriots 27 at Broncos 21
Two years ago, after starting 0-4 and losing TD for the year, there was an SI cover quoting a Bronco saying, “We’re Finished.” They still made a run that year. You heard it here first - they really are done this year.
START: Brady, Troy Brown, Rod Smith.

Bills 17 at Chargers 27
The Bills won’t be able to run or stop the Chargers running game. That leads to losses.
START: Moulds, Tomlinson, Freddie Jones.

Dolphins 31 at Seahawks 6
And you thought Hasselbeck looked bad before? Now he has to face perhaps the best cover guys in the league after losing two weeks of practice/timing with his young wide-outs.
START: Fiedler, Gadsden, Lamar Smith, Phins Defense.

Giants 20 at Redskins 3
Marty Shottenheimer has the most job security of anyone in the nation. If he gets canned, who does Snyder think he can get to coach for him?
START: Hilliard, Dayne, Giants Defense.

Titans 13 at Steelers 19
The Titans don’t have a passing game. The Steelers don’t give up yards on the ground. What else is there to know?
START: Kris Brown. Steeler Defense.

Crossing my fingers and toes to get back on track. I didn’t check the ATS record last week (too scred), but straight up I was 7-6 making me 53-32 on the year I believe.

2

Saints 14 at Rams 34

Why such a big lead? Not that I’m complaining, but I think this will be a hard fought win for the Rams (although they will win) against a division opponent. The Saints are going to be fighting hard because they need this win to stay competitive in the division and the Rams, aside from wanting to stay the only undefeated team in the NFL, want the win to help ensure they take the division title.

I think it’ll be closer:
Saints 24 at Rams 30

3

Let’s see, the Saints beat Carolina with :00 on the clock and lost to Atlanta. They’re not as good as last year, especially with Willie out. Not to mention they’ve “Kordelled” Aaron Brooks by over coaching him into thinking he’s a pocket passer.

4

When you say Brooks has been “Kordelled”, why does that make my backside hurt? I think you just invented a new word. Congratulations.
dead0man

5

He’s the picks with spreads, just for kicks.

6

I got 2 questions (I don’t think there are definate answers to either of them, but I’d like to get Gazoo and Omniscient and anyone else’s take):

  1. Was David Patten a fluke? I mean, I know we aren’t going to see another 4TD performance, but… Do you think he’s going to be a regular part of the offense moving forward? Or will he just be a 4th or 5th receiver?

  2. Does anyone know whats up with the running game in Denver? I’ve heard everything from Terrell starting Sunday to Terrell being out for the rest of the year with a stress fracture. I’ve also heard rumors that Anderson has been benched in favor of Gary, assuming TDavis doesn’t play. Any light to be shed here?
    I innocently ask because I have Patten and Gary available on my bench this week. :slight_smile:

7

Well, of course Shanahan has Gary starting ahead of Andersen now that my IRL Fantasy team dropped him after weeks and weeks of patiently waiting. Now we can look forward to paying big bucks to get him back if we want him after the weekend.
:mad:

8

Well, on the Denver thing, I don’t have a clue. I don’t think anyone does and thats exactly how Shanny wants it.

With the Patten thing, I don’t know. Unfortunately I haven’t actually been able to watch and follow the Patsies this season, but I’d guess that he’ll get some playing time. Even if the coach doesn’t go slash on him this week, the defenses will have to pepare for it. Everytime they have him on the field the defense if going to have to be prepared for him to do something unexpected. That will open things up. However it might make Patten a decoy, but he’ll most certainly be more than a 4th receiver. I’d start him, unless you’re benching a stud.

9

My tentative starters: (I need to start 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 O Flex.)

RB: Bettis vs Ten
WR: Tim Brown vs PHI
TE: Pollard vs KC
OFlex1: Jeff Graham vs Buf
OFlex2: M. Muhammad vs NYJ
OFlex3: M. Pittman vs DAL

On the Bench:

RB: A Green (bye), O Gary (vs NE), D Chapman (vs TB)

WR: B Schroeder (bye), K McCardell (vs BAL) , David Patten (vs DEN), Dez White (vs SF),

TE: F Wycheck (vs PIT)

Suggestions are welcome.

10

I’d definately bench Pittman and play Patten. Unless running backs are weighted heavily. Dallas’ run D is solid. Could totally backfire considering how streaky receievers can be to overload on them however. I’d still take a shot and play Patten.

11

Colts at Chiefs (Indy -3)
I agree with Gazoo here, but it won’t be this close. Colts win and cover easily. Arrowhead could balance this thing out so I’m avoiding it in my parlay, but Indy still has major talent and KC won’t whip up on Indy’s D like the Pats. The short week benefits the talented, fast team. Vermeil won’t have time to coach the Chefs to a victory.

Jaguars at Ravens (Ravens -7)
Ravens win but don’t cover. Brunell will get beat up, but the Jax D is good enough to humble the Ravens O. I never feel good betting on the Ravens one way or the other, I’ll probably avoid this.

Vikings at Bucs (Tampa -3)
Tampa wins and probably covers. Could end up a push, but I like Dunn at home against that D. I think Sapp steps up this week and rallies that D. They love shutting up the pundits.

Bengals at Lions (Detroit -3)
I would be all over Detroit in this game if they hadn’t lost Crowell. The Lion’s running with Stewart looks alot like the Bears and A-Train. They aren’t quite as dedicated to it, so that’ll hurt them, but Cincy won’t dominate on defense. Cincy will still win, and they should be a slight favorite. It’ll be close though. I’m going to do some research and see what Dillon does on turf indoors…might make me reconsider this one. Not betting it yet.

49ers at Bears (Da Bears -2.5)
Agreeing with Gazoo again. Bears big at home. The crowd will be way up after the last road win, and the hype. I worry that Owens could have a big day, but we’ll knock Garcia around and control the ball. Always afraid to go with the home team, but I might break that rule this week.

Saints at Rams (Rams -12.5)
Gazoo’s got this one again. Rams, huge. I think they’ll pick up where they left off last week. They look ready to get into that 4-5 game groove where the score on the team and their sister all game long, just like weeks 3-7 in 98.

Jets at Panthers (Jets -2.5)
Another ugly game here, I would have liked the Panthers to win and cover, but they were my lock last week and thet let me down. Haven’t seen if Weinke will learn from last week or get cautious and crumble. Martin could have a big day. I’m staying away from this. Do me and Gazoo share a brain?

More to come tomorrow…

12

I was going to say you should find a way to get Gary into the mix, but all of the slots you have filled actually have better match-ups. The only one I might switch him for is Graham who is very inconsistent fantasy-wise.

Omni - share a brain? That would explain alot if I’m only walking around with half a brain most of the time. :wink:

13

On the question of Marty’s job security, I’d say it depends on whether the team actually does start turning around or not. There are always more assistant coaches out there who could succeed as head coaches, than there are openings in the head coach ranks. If you go to work for The Danny and it doesn’t work out because he won’t leave you alone, what’s the worst people are going to say? “If Snyder hadn’t interfered, he would’ve done fine.” Although that clearly doesn’t apply to Marty this year.

And if Snyder has the sense to keep quiet between now and January, and then hires a real GM (hint to Danny: Ron Wolf won’t rule it out), that’ll make the job look that much more desirable.

Now, the game: Giants 16 at Redskins 13.
It won’t be any 20-3: the Giants haven’t dominated anyone like that, this year - not even the Redskins when they played at the Meadowlands 3 weeks ago. That one was up for grabs until Sehorn’s interception for a TD with less than 3 minutes to go, the 'Skins and Giants always play each other tough, and this one’s at the Jack.

The ‘Skins’ offense isn’t much to talk about, but the defense has a definite pulse again, giving up yards but not many scores lately. Redskins to cover, but not win.

14

masybe I had too much to drink last night but…

Niners 10, not bloody likely. Though I do envision an agressive game form the secondary of the Bears, they got burned last year, and remember it. I envision yet another OT game with whoever getting the coin toss getting the win. The Niners will throw early and often too prevent the Bears from controlling the game with the clock.

Ah but that’s a problem. Garcia’s fast and thinks on his feet. He’s also a more efficient passer when flushed out of the pocket, and always a threat to run for a !st Down or more. That strategies more like to hurt the Bears. Watch for blocking/options from the TEs and RBs.

On side kick? With a HUGE lead? The Football Gods will be displeased. Saints by 3.

The Raiders have only impressed me as adequate. Doing just enough to win the game. Coming off a bye, I think they’ll be rusty. Iggles by a field goal.

A break out game for the Lions by logic should come with a game againt the Bengals. The Lions aren’t bad enough to go 0-6. Lions by 7.

The rest of the games, I’m siding with Gazoo and Omniscient

15

Gazoo, don’t worry. I don’t really put many miles on it when I use it, in fact I could probably get by with just a quarter, maybe even an eighth if no one tries to talk to me before 11 AM.

About Graham vs. Patten, looking at the match ups I’d say its a mistake to bench Graham for Patten this week. Denver has a effective pass defense, but give up yards on the ground. I expect it to be all LT all day, not enough ball this week for Graham. Buffalo is the opposite, better against the run than the pass. Patten won’t be blanketed.

I still say swap him for Pittman if you really want him in the lineup. Pittman won’t score big, but he’s a safe bet to get some points. Graham and Patten could both get shut out, but I think both have higher opportunity values.

16

…and we continue with the rest of the games.

Cardinals at Cowboys (Pick 'em)
Cards win this one going away. They made the Bears nervous, and the Cowboys don;t have the guns on either side of the ball that we do. Big day for Plummer and Boston. The 'Boys will probably actually score this week, but they’ll turn it over alot too. It shocks me that the line is even here. I’d take the Cards minus 3. I’ll probably take this on.

Raiders at Eagles (Eagles -1)
Raiders win big. At least a TD, I don’t see the Eagles slowing them down defensively at all. McNabb will keep them in it, but the WRs won’t help much. As usual they are on the road so it makes me nervous to take the dog. We’ll see if I need this one.

Patriots at Broncos (Denver -7.5)
I am not even going to hazard a guess here. After seeing what the Pats did to Indy, I’m really hesitant to take the Broncos with a similar offensive scheme. If forced I say Denver wins, Pats cover. But I don’t think I’ll bet on it knowing how schitzo the Pats are.

Bills at Chargers (SD -7.5)
I like the Chargers to win this one, straight-up I’d take them all day long. I got a nasty feeling they’ll win this by a TD though. Flutie might try too hard against them and make mistakes. It should be LT all day long, but maybe they break scheme against the hapless Bills. I’d hate to see this one end up 17-10 with a 7.5 spread. I’ll take SD to win and cover as a last resort.

Dolphins at Seahawks ('Phins -2.5)
You gotta be kidding me. Hasselbeck against the Dolphin’s D? Thats charity. Healthy rested 'Phins win and cover, Lamar scores 3 TDs. Alexander is well under a hundred. I’m taking this puppy.

Giants at Redskins (NYG -7.5)
I think the Giants learned their lesson on Monday. They won’t make the same mistake of being conservative this week. Giants win and cover, Snyder has to chain the gates shut to make sure the fans stick it out and buy concessions.

Titans at Steelers (Kordell -3)
The Titan’s have been my white whale this year. I am conviced they are still a good team snakebitten by a horrible schedule. But then they come out and suck against a bad Detroit team. They haven’t been on TV (I need a dish) so I don’t know what the problem is. They have zero passing game and Eddie is dinged up. I stiff can’t understand why the things that worked the last 3 years isn’t now, and I thought their D would be improved. They haven’t stopped anyone this season. I’m lost. Then to the Steelers, my other white whale. I swallowed my pride last week and picked them for my only correct pick. I was convinced they are pretenders, and that Bettis can’t carry the team and if they get into a bind Kordell will cost them. I was wrong on both. I still don;t think they’ll be able to win a close one at the end of a game, but so far theyv’e succeeded in making sure they are in control in he fourth quarter. On paper its the Steelers debuting the new stadium in primetime, by a touchdown. If I had a gun tomy head I’d pick them to win and cover…but I’d hate myself in the morning, especially if Eddie George decides to show up with an attitude. I refuse to pick against the Titans, when I do I know they’ll snap out of it.

17

stuffinb,

I think in that Bears - 49ers game the team to get into the endzone first will win. Bears score first and the Niners will be swallowing the A-Train pill all game long. If the Niner’s score first we might have to blitz and give Owens a chance to hurt us. He won’t be allowed to win this game single handedly, but if Stokes or Streets have a big day it might get dicey. I’m not really confident on this game, and I’d like to avoid picking it this week, but I think home field will buy us that field goal at least.

Gracia’s movement won’t hurt the Bears much. We can run him down and if he runs too often he won’t finish the game. I’m sure we’ll scheme to attack him on the rollout, or have a Urlacher spying him when he’s not blitzing. I’ll take Urlacher over Garcia any day.

I’m interested in seeing what McQuarters (please let it not be Harris on him) does against Owens…I’m sure they know each other pretty well. Either way we’ll get even with him.

18

We’re talking about a team that hasn’t scored more than 21 points on offense in any game this season.

19

We’re of similar minds on this. That’s why I didn’t pick a winner either. The Niners must score in the first quarter and preferably in their 1st possesion to win this game (or so the papers say, --it hasn’t stopped them from winning).

I was trying to remember if McQuarters played coverage on TO last year, but don’t. McQ was just beginning to show promise here when we released him. In practice he normally covered Rice, but should still be familiar with Owens routes.

20

I’m going to go out on a limb and pick KC to upset Indy and New Orleans to come back late in the game and win a close one vs. St. Louis. It definitely won’t be lopsided like the KC game last year, but I think NO’s D can hold St. Louis to moderate statistics and their O will click soon (Willie Roaf is way overrated, trust me on that one).

As for fantasy, what do you think: J Smith vs Baltimore, Holt vs. NO, Alexander vs. Indy, Horn vs. StL, Ismail vs. Jax. My all knowledgeable friend says Smith, Holt, and Alex while I’m thinking Horn in place of Smith. He was right last week about starting Ismail over Horn (I started Horn anyway and ended up tying my game), so I don’t want to go against his opinion unless I get some other advice saying otherwise.