Here’s my Week 7 coverage. Lets hope things go better this time around. Lots of fairly level matchups, good teams playing good teams and bad teams playing bad teams. I hope you guys are a little more talkative this week, I hope real life doesn’t get in the way of football for two weeks in a row!
Sunday’s Games
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m. ET ('Phins by 4)
OK, here’s a game I feel like I can comment on without qualifying every statement with an “but if”. The fish are without practically their entire offense except Ricky Williams. Chambers and Gadsen are questionable, with Chambers pretty unlikely, and Ray Lucas is at the helm. Thankfully Buffalo’s defense isn’t real nasty, but I think it’ll be good enough to make the 'Phins completely one dimensional. Granted, thats a pretty solid dimension, but I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with that Bills passing game. I’ll take Bledsoe over Ricky any day. As good as the Miami defense is, especially against the pass, I think that Drew will find a way to pick it apart. The Bills had better really call out their defense cause this is a very winnable game if they step up just a little, and if they have a prayer of competing for a playoff spot they’d better win this one. Bills win the upset on the road.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs 1:00 p.m. ET (Ponies by 3)
Poor KC, 3-3 and in last place. They must feel like they lost the realignment lottery. This week they get a shot at evening things up against a divisional rival at home. They’d better take advantage of it. Bad week for the Broncos to lose Kennedy, anyone who say’s that hit was “clean” is a frigging jackass. Yeah the league can be a little trigger happy on those fines, but this one was blatantly spearing. People babble about the new “helmet to helmet” rule, but they forget that spearing has been illegal forever at all levels. Just a new word for it. Anyways, the KC offense is not one you want to be shorthanded against. KC beat the Broncos last year at home, and they’ve beaten the Dolphins this year at home. Now they get the Broncos at home, I think I see a trend. It’ll be a shootout, and KC will give up some points, but I have a hunch Griese will make just enough mistakes to give this one away after a short week of practice. KC gets the upset.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets 1:00 p.m. ET (J-E-T-S by 3)
I’m shocked they are favored, I really think its absurd. Have you seen them play? Have you seen how many points they’ve been giving up? And now they have Moss and Co. coming into town? Granted Minnesota has looked pretty pathetic this season, but at least their poor performances were against pretty solid teams. I think Moss is gonna have a really big day this week, and I expect them to be completely unable to bring Culpepper down. the Jets will probably move the ball against Minnesota, and CuMar will break a 100, but it won’t be enough. the ball control, grind it out game plan doesn’t work when you have no defense. Vikings win on the road.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons 1:00 p.m. ET (Falcons by 3½)
I’m not quite sure what to make of this, Carolina has developed a knack for dropping close ones, and this will probably be a close one. I’m not taking too much from that Giants victory, the Gints had about their entire team on the bench, and their offense is seriously anemic. Atlanta is getting Buchannon back which could spark the defense. Vick is rumored to be coming back this week, so we’ll have to wait and see on that one. The Panthers are probably the second most beat up team in the league (behind my Bears), and it showed last week against the Cowboys. Luckily for them its not a huge drop off between Peete and Wienke, but I’m not sure I’d wager on Wienke after last season. I’d take the under here, but its less clear on who’s gonna win it. Since its in Atlanta on the turf, I’m gonna guess that the Falcons win and cover.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions 1:00 p.m. ET (Da Bears by 3)
This game scares the shit out of me. The Bears’ brain trust didn’t heed my advice last week, big shock, and what did it get them? It got them nearly 2 weeks worth of practice with Jim Miller who is now questionable this coming week. Shit. Granted, I think Chandler is one guy who’ll not be affected by that short practice week, but it’d have been nice to get a game plan around him. Still, Miller might be the starter this week making the whole point moot. We didn’t really get anyone healthy in the time off, so thats not much of a relief. The Lions might very well take us down here, I can’t predict it in good conscience, but their running game and a QB who’s starting to slow things down could move the ball successfully. The upside is that we should be able to move the ball as well, A-Train should see some holes and if Shoop isn’t a complete pussy we should out match them downfield. Bears win and cover, but I won’t be betting on it, and frankly I’m not sure I wanna watch.
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints 1:00 p.m. ET ('aints by 2½)
Anyone wanna bet TO has a pen in his sock this week out of spite, just for the extra attention? I wasn’t too bent out of shape over the thing last week, since it was a little thing him and Springs had going with a mutual friend. Springs knew it was in good fun, kinda cocky, but thats acceptable. No where near the Dallas Star incident, but after hearing some of the pundits and Holmgren blow their stack he’ll probably make a ritual out of it. Thats the kind of prick he is, maybe if we all stopped paying attention he’d quiet down like every other 4 year old. Just looking at this on the surface I’d think the Saints would roll, but when you look at the match ups I think it gets quite a it closer. The Saints big soft spot is the pass defense, and this could be the kind of game where Owens is a one man wrecking crew. The 49ers can play the run pretty well, so I don’t expect a huge day for Mcallister. Both teams will score in this game, and the winner with probably be the one who makes the least mistakes. Tough tough game to call, but I’m going to take the 49ers in the upset, their just more balanced overall.
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams 1:00 p.m. ET (Rams by 5½)
Now, I wasn’t surprised that the Rams came to life last week, but this spread seems a little out of line. I’m sure its a big help to have it taking place in St Louis, but the Seahawks didn’t exactly roll over against the 49ers like a certain team here. I do think the Rams are going to continue to play well, and getting that monkey off their back was a big thing especially against a very good team. I’m not sold on Bulger just yet, he certainly played well, but traditionally that doesn’t hold in the second game after a team gets time to scout him. Seattle’s defense is fairly solid as well. Then again, if the Rams defense starts ball hawking like last season, Dilfer could be in trouble. He’s certainly not the most accurate passer I’ve seen, especially when he’s behind. Another game with alot of question marks. Frankly, this has been one of the toughest seasons for me predict, it seems like everyone is more inconsistent and injury prone than ever. I’m gonna take the Rams to win here, but the Seahawks to cover and make it interesting.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens 1:00 p.m. ET (Ravens by 2½)
Lewis is probably still out, and Brunell is a question mark. Now this game should probably be OFF until we know if Brunell is playing or not. I’m gonna guess he will. The Jags have managed to play pretty well against the run this season, and have been able to stay in those games. I expect them to hold Lewis under wraps without a strong passing game to make them stay honest. The Raven’s D will keep them in it, but I predict that without Ray Lewis Taylor has just enough room to move the chains and maybe break one or two loose for big gains. As long as Brunell plays and is seeing clearly, they’ll pick up this road win. However, I admit that the Titans loss worries me, but I blame the fact they had to play without Brunell. Jags win.
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders 4:05 p.m. ET (Raiders by 7)
Very dangerous game for the Raiders. I think last week was a fluke, the Rams played well, but the Raiders really let down. If both teams had shown up the Raiders would still be undefeated. But, even a Raider team thats playing well could have trouble against the Chargers. They have the balance on offense to really score alot of points against the Raiders, especially without Woodson. They also have a defense that might contain the Raiders like no other they’ve seen. Since the Chargers are pretty banged up on defense, and playing on the road, I’m gonna pick the Raiders to win this one. Something about those veterans just makes me doubt they’ll lose two straight, but the Chargers are gonna cover. [sub](I might even change my mind on the winner in a day or two)[/sub]
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns 4:05 p.m. ET (Browns by 9)
This spread is outlandish, ok maybe not outlandish, but a little surprising. The Texans have hung in against teams alot better than the Browns. Part of me thinks that the Browns will get things right against these guys, but another part of me thinks the Browns are just the kind of team the Texans could snap up. Both teams will be able to run the ball some, and Couch could have an excellent day. Butch Davis needs to exert himself here, if he can get his guys rallied and win this one convincingly. Might turn out to be an indictment of him if they don’t. Neither team gives me much of anything to zone in on for comment, they are just really bland. Talentwise the Browns should dominate. But by that logic they shouldn’t be 2-4 either. I expect the Browns to win this, but I’m gonna go with my first instinct and say the Texans cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles 4:15 p.m. ET (Iggles by 3½)
Sapp has 6 sacks already, the normally mobile McNabb has been sacked 19 times. The TB defense has been flat out vicious so far, and the Eagles offense has been all McNabb and has shown signs of weakness. Why exactly are the Eagles favored? Now, the Alstott thing was probably a fluke. Philly’s D will probably give the Buc offense just as much trouble, especially at home in some slightly chilly weather. Its usually a dangerous thing to take the road dog in games against to good evenly matched teams, but the Bucs have just been winning in much more convincing fashion than the Eagles. Then I recall that the Eagles are off a loss and a bye week, usually a very strong omen for success. I’m going to predict a close, low scoring slug fest, and take the Eagles to win and the Bucs to cover in a classic matchup. I would pick the upset, but all the intangibles go the Eagles way in this one, so I’ll hedge my bets.
Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers 4:15 p.m. ET (Pack by 9)
As much as it pains me, the Pack seems to have gotten their shit together. I don’t expect Ramsey to really put much pressure on that defense, though Steven Davis might. In any case, it won’t matter since the Packers will be able to do just about anything they want against the 'skins D. I’d probably take the over, and Spurrier might be able to exploit the secondary some, but I can’t really predict it will be close. The Packers are really banged up on both sides of the ball, so I suppose that could play a factor but Favre could win this one on his own. Packers win and cover.
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals 4:15 p.m. ET (Cards by 3½)
Both teams are dinged at very important spots, the Cowboys O line is in bad shape, and the defensive stars are missing. The Cards skill positions are depleted. I think the Cards will handle the Dallas running game with much trouble, and while Carter has been looking solid of late, he probably won’t challenge the Cards secondary that has been coming together of late. On the flipside, its probably going to be all Plummer for the Cards on O, luckily for that banged up Dallas D, the Cards O may even be worse off. Nevertheless, I think the Cowboys magic runs out this week and Boston will have a solid day. Cards win, but the Cowboys cover.
Monday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers 9:00 p.m. ET (Steelers by 4½)
No way the Steelers should be favored. They have no prayer of containing the Colts offense. They’re gonna give up 30+ this week, and there’s no way that iffy running game can keep them in it. Dungy has managed to get that Colts defense playing well enough to keep the games winnable, and the Steelers aren’t likely to challenge them. They can play them straight up and wait for the Steelers to make mistakes, the Steelers however have to gamble on defense. I’m not willing to bet against the big three on Indy there. Colts win big and embarrass the MNF guys once again.
As usual, I’m gonna mull things over, and keep and eye on the injury reports and make my OMNI picks later this week. Good times.
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