NFL Predictions - Week 2 (The Reconciliation)

In My Humble Opinion
1

Well folks, it’s week two and it’s time to get to prognosticating. I went 8-7 last week, getting over .500 on Monday nights game. Went 3-2 in the pick 5. Split on my 2 Fantasy Football teams. Winning my Money league easily, and losing my SDMB league by a pubic-hair. Damn you McNabb. I got dumped from my survivor league just like about everyone else. Supposedly sure things all fell apart, with Minnesota, St. Louis and Denver all getting spanked. That was fun, huh? There’s a few big spreads this week, so we’ll have to be wise in our wagers. Lets look ahead:

Sunday, Sept. 18th
Baltimore (-4.0) @ Tennessee
Do you really knock the Ravens down a peg when the lose Boller? It’s not anyone gave him a ton of credit to begin with. Wright sucks too, but maybe the change of pace will give them a one-week boost offensively. The real knowledge was that Jamal Lewis wasn’t the same guy, or at least isn’t yet. Indy’s D was improved, and played really well, but they weren’t dominant. A big part of that near shutout is due to Baltimore’s ineptness on the ground as well as in the air. On the flipside, the Titan’s didn’t exactly show much of anything. They couldn’t tackle. Turned the ball over, and got simply gouged on the ground. I expect this game to look a lot like the Pittsburgh game. 150+ yds on the ground for Baltimore, mediocre Titans offense. Not going to be a blowout, lots of mistakes on both sides, but in the end the Ravens take it. Lots of field goals for Stover.

The pick: Ravens (-4)

Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Houston
The Texans couldn’t stop the run and while the Steelers D isn’t quite as good as the Bills, they’ll be stout enough to make Davis struggle again. That’s about all you need to know in this game. The Steelers are going to go on the road, dominate the ball, the clock and the kicking game. That’s a pretty good recipe for success, kinda like meatloaf and mashed potatoes.

The pick: Steelers (-6)

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-9.0)
9 points seems a bit extreme, doncha think? Jacksonville’s offensive stats match Indy’s in the first game almost exactly, and Jacksonville played a very solid defensive game against a much stronger offense than the Raven’s. Now, I’m not saying the Jags are a better team, and I’m not saying they’ll go on the road and win this thing. But there’s no way they should be nearly a double digit dog against a team they historically play close. I like Leftwich to play big, I like the Jag’s D to contain Edge. I like Peyton to get in done in the end though.

The pick: Jags (+9)

Detroit (-2.0) @ Chicago
How much fun will it be to see people foaming at the mouth over the fact that Favre got devoured by the Lions D while the rookie Orton eats them up! It’d be great, wouldn’t it! Yeah, I thought you’d agree. Honestly, I don’t know what to make of this game. The Lions aren’t great, and if the Pack hadn’t sucked so hard they’d have made a game of it. As it stands the Pack have the worst D in the league and the Lions only managed 17 points. The Bears D doesn’t suck. The game is in Chicago, and I just don’t see the Lions causing Orton fits the way the Redskins did.

The pick: Bears (+2)

Minnesota @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
This game may not even be this close. The Bengals are at home, coming off a big win and have a diverse offense that will give the revamped Vikings D troubles. The Vikings gave a big game up to Cadillac Williams and Rudi/Perry will be able to match that and then some. I’m sure Culpepper will make a fewer mistakes and play well, I’d expect a high scoring affair, but in the end I like the Bengals to walk away with it.

The pick: Bengals (-3)

San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-13.5)
2 TDs? Seriously? McNabb is questionable, and the 49ers put together a solid effort last week. I’m sure the Eagles will probably get the job gone, but 2 TDs is practically a NCAA spread. McNabb managed a whopping 68.5 passer rating that doesn’t factor in the 2 fumbles. And even if he plays, he will still be feeling the effects of the bruised sternum. It’s not like he’s been the most gutty guy. Westbrook and TO didn’t exactly look dialed in either. SF doesn’t have the ponies to go on the road and take the big upset, and the Philly D will make life miserable for Rattay, but I don’t think they cover the points.

The pick: 49ers (+13.5)

Buffalo @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)
I’m not ready to start making the Bucs the favorite over quality teams yet. I do think they are going to have a very solid year, I really like how Griese has played. The one catch is this Buffalo D. They are gnarly. They’ll force turnovers, and the Bucs won’t hold down Willis. People seem to be over-valuing a win against the Vikes. They are the least clutch team ever, beating them at home doesn’t solidify your status. That’s not to say that dominating the Texans does either, but I’ll hang my hat on the one squad that isn’t in doubt, the Bills D.

The pick: Bills (+2.5)

New England (-3.0) @ Carolina
I expect the Panthers to bounce back from last week and be an excellent team this year, I’m not reading too much into it. I also didn’t like the way the New England played the run last week, and they missed tackles in the secondary. On the other hand, Carolina’s D wasn’t up to the level I expect. The Pats offense was consistent as expected and mostly mistake free. It’s going to be close, both teams tend to do the little things. Belichick had an extra 4 days of prep time (seems a little unfair, no?). In the end, I think that Carolina is going to come out with a chip on its shoulder and pound the ball mercilessly. I’d feel better if Jenkins were filling up that middle, but I’ll wing it here.

The pick: Carolina (+3) [sub]Can you believe I just talked myself into picking against the Champs?[/sub]

Atlanta @ Seattle (-1.0)
How good did the Falcon’s D look last week, and I loved the way Dunn was carrying the ball. Seattle is that one team that always gives me fits to predict. One week they look unstoppable, the next they can’t do anything right. I guess the lesson is to never trust Holmgren. The Seahawks secondary is very good and very underrated, though they didn’t show it last week. Go figure. I feel like the Falcons are going to let down after last week’s tough Monday Night game. A game like that to start the season has to take a little out of you, and then having to fly all the way across the country on a short week would suck. Vick of course can offset all of that. Well, crap. I have no idea at all here. Flip a coin.

The pick: Falcons (+1)

St. Louis @ Arizona (-1.0)
I don’t quite know how to pick this one either. I’m not ready bail in the Cards just yet, they played a solid squad last week and gave up 2 special teams TDs. I also don’t think the Rams are quite as bad as you’d expect after that last loss. Call it the Martz factor, he automatically creates a +/- 6 point variance for them, which of course is wholly unpredictable. With the game outdoors and in Arizona I want to favor them, and I’m equally optimistic since I have Arrington n my fantasy team. I like the Rams over that Cards D with Jackson, though I think the pass rush of the Cards will hassle Bulger. In the end I’m going with hope over anything else.

The pick: Cardinals (-1)

Miami @ N.Y. Jets (-6.5)
I said it last week; I’m saying it again now. The Jets suck. Miami isn’t exactly in KC’s league, but they’ll do plenty to overcome the Jets. I simply can’t rationalize any reason to expect the Jets to bounce back against Saban and his guys. They dominated Denver, and Denver isn’t the worst team you’ll see this year. I’m expecting Herm’s seat to start getting a little warm.

The pick: Dolphins (+6.5)

Cleveland @ Green Bay (-6.5)
Oh, oh! I know this one, the Packers blow! Run Romeo, run. That’s the answer against this flimsy team. I know Lambeau can be intimidating, and Favre doesn’t tend to crap away games at home that often, but you can do it. Can Cleveland be the team that gets it done? I don’t know, but I do know that the Pack shouldn’t be favored by nearly a TD. Sherman is the other Mike who you never put money on under any circumstances.

The pick: Browns (+6.5)

San Diego @ Denver (-3.0)
Think Tomlinson is a little bitter that he was held to 78 yards last week? I do. Think Gates is chomping at the bit to get into the game after sitting one out? I think so too. Does the concept of betting on Marty Schottenheimer scare the ever living shit out of me? You betcha! Lets face it, if the Dolphin’s were able to run roughshod over Denver, you can’t think San Diego’s offense will struggle at all. Also, two words: Jake Plummer.

The pick: Chargers (+3) [sub] Can you believe that I’m getting points?[/sub]

Kansas City (-1.5) @ Oakland
Look, I like Randy Moss as much as the next pot-head. I do think having Kerry Collins on your fantasy roster is going to be a great choice. But there’s one detail that gets overlooked. Failed 3rd down conversions don’t show up in many fantasy leagues. They do show up quite often in NFL games however, and I’ve yet to see Collins or Moss have a big impact converting them ever. Moss is the classic 1st down receiver, take a chance and you’ll have a Yahtzee more often than about anyone else. Collins has a strong arm and a drinking problem. Of course, KC was big last week, but that was against a awful, awful team. 6 FUMBLES! Not going to happen this week, but Oakland will make plenty of their own mistakes.

The pick: Chiefs (-1.5)

Monday, Spet. 19th
Washington @ Dallas (-6.0)
I’m inclined to pick Washington here just because my gut tells me so, but all the other indicators point to Dallas at home. 6 points is probably more than they deserve, but the Brunell experiment is likely to be an unpleasant experience. It’ll be interesting to see how successful the running game is for the Cowboys against this defense. And if it struggles it’ll be curious if Bledsoe is able to step up without it. I’m not going to ignore how solid the Cowboys played against a good san Diego team. This game is rife with perils for Dallas, but I’m going to trust in Parcells to out coach Gibbs.

The pick: Cowboys (-6)

New Orleans @ N.Y. Giants (-3.0)
It’s more than a little pathetic that this game is being played in New York. Think Tags is getting a little taste of the action here? Did they really need to make a snap decision immediately after the fact, or could they have held off a little and arranged for a game to be played in a southern/neutral location. No way should a team get an extra home game; they’d better be giving away tickets to every single evacuee in the tri-state area. Anyways, to the game. All season long I expect the Saints to give everyone fits. They looked really tough and determined last week. They handled a very solid team in Carolina last week, and come to town to face a somewhat unpredictable Giants team. The Giants got 14 special teams points, not a feat I think they’ll repeat. So I’m going to look at that last victory as being a little closer than it was. Nonetheless, the time away from home has to wear on the Saints. I think Deuce will be a force, and Brooks will be erratic as usual. The real question I have is the capabilities of the Giants offense. I just don’t have a good read on them. They weren’t impressive on 3rd down, and didn’t sustain many drives. Based on those factors I’m going to side with the Saints

The pick: Saints (+3)

Upon review I picked 11 road teams to cover. That’s got to be a recipe for disaster, no? 10 underdogs were picked to cover as well. Man, I’m really living dangerously this week.

Let’s see, who’s going to make the pick 5:
New Orleans, Miami, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Dallas [sub]Kansas City and San Diego look pretty tasty too[/sub]

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Not a single comment, are you shitting me?

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To be fair, I read the thread last night at about three in the morning, and I was way too drunk to post anything coherent at the time.

I think this week should be a lot less chaotic than last week in terms of wins and losses - in large part because there aren’t half a dozen games that scream “mismatch” where there could be big upsets for silly suicide pool people (myself included). There are a bunch of divisional games that should be toughly fought, and most of the other games are between teams evenly matched enough that you don’t really expect a blowout either way.

McNabb has said he will play Sunday. I also think the Eagles will win but not cover - to win by two touchdowns, they would have to play significantly better than they did on Monday night. I’m not sure that happens against a team they are pretty sure they should beat, in a situation where they need to protect their franchise player from further injury early in the year.

I’m not really sure on the spreads in the Pats-Panthers, Falcons-Seahawks, and Chargers-Broncos games. I think the Pats, Falcons, and Chargers should all be favored by minimum three points more than they are, and that all three of those teams have the potential to win pretty big. On the other hand, all three of those are road teams, and with home field the way it is in the NFL you never really know.

If I were the betting type (as opposed to the fantasy-league-obsessed type), I’d take most of who you took, with the exceptions of the Bucs, Pats, and probably Packers. Though I’d have to think really hard about taking the Packers after last week’s abomination.

4

Things are looking pretty good so far. I should have put some money on those early games…

5

Two touchdowns nothing. The Eagles are currently up by four touchdowns and are shutting out the Niners.

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Lets take a quick look at the early games.

Went 5 - 3 on the early games, feeling pretty good about that since I’m undefeated in the pick 5 so far. Plus the Bears won, the Pats, Lions and Vikes lost and my fantasy teams are kicking ass. Good week so far. Unfortunately, I’m an idiot and forgot to enter my pick-em choices. Oh well, here’s where it counts, eh?

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Boy, it can be exasperating to be a Broncos fan. Two missed field goals, two turnovers in the red zone, and two touchdowns called back because of penalties. If nothing else, the Broncos have got to do something about that red zone offense.

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::Jets fan sulks out from under his rock::

Whoo-Hoo! :smiley:

Omniscient, although I disagree with your assesment of my Jets, I just wanted to thank you for the great threads. Good luck with the rest of the games.

::Slinks back under his rock, praying Gang Green’s luck holds out another week.::

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Hey, Omni, I missed this thread earlier, but very happy to see you dead wrong on the Bucs. Cadillac Williams is a very good young RB.

Oh, and the Bears looked quality today, too. Pity about the Pack and Vikes, though.

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Yeah, it’s a damn shame…:wink:

I think it’s a stretch to say I was dead wrong. I was pretty damn positive about them, I was just mistakenly a little more positive on the Bills.

11

hehheh, tell me about it. I’ll be bumping my ghost-town of an NFL thread tomorrow night, and the over/under on how many hours it takes to drop like a rock to the second page is 2½.

I was otherwise occupied last night after getting home, so I didn’t check for this thread. I prefer waiting until Saturday night / Sunday morning to gather up the Post spreads, as they tend to change during the week.

I do plan on participating, though. I had multi-level fun with it last week. Immersing myself back into the NFL wagering mindset was fun, as I always did enjoy the actual picking of games. And then printing them out and checking them off during the games on Sundays is quite fun. And then the best part is not being down money because I’m only pretending to make bets. It’s, literally, “all good”.

So don’t be discouraged from making another one next week; I plan on being there. (I didn’t make my template for nothing!) Hell, how long do Airman’s Steelers threads go? You could just make it one giant thread with all your picks for the whole season, as I doubt you’ll get more than a dozen or so posts per week, but it really is quite fun.

I don’t trust your spreads, btw. (For the above stated reason.) One thing that always pissed me off about handicappers was the way they touted their record. “We went 12-4 last week!” Yeah, right, asshole, I booked four of your “winners”, but guess what? The bookie’s spread was two points worse and I got my clock cleaned, you misrepresenting piece of shit! (Not you, or anything like these threads. I’m referring to the “services” that offer hot picks…think 900 numbers. Yes, I’m so bad at handicapping the NFL I have tried those scams.)

I wonder if there were any spread differentials that you hit on last week? Certainly nothing this week, unless the Eagles line crept up to -45 over the weekend.

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Be honest…you wanted Fiedler to start this week, just a little bit.

Also, remember your recent history. (As I’m sure you do.) How’d 2002 start off? Outscored (roughly) 119-23 in a 1-4 start? As I recall, Gang Green humiliated Peyton Manning 41-0 in the playoffs that year. Then again, that’s when The Chad was still shiny; he even had a little bit of the “new QB” smell still lingering.

In all seriousness, how much are you bumming about Kareem McKenzie? Curtis is hurting without him. Tiki and Jacobs, OTOH…

Hey, that reminds me: Anyone doubting the importance of the Center? Good lord, would it have killed the Vikings to guarantee Birk’s 2006 salary? Quick, somebody toss 'Pep a lifeline before we get a QB controversy in the Twin Cities. I bet they can’t wait to come visit East Rutherford. hehheh.

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BTW, I just checked the schedule and we’re up at Lambeau next week, then back home the following week against the Lions. Hopefully we can help you out some more.

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I haven’t gotten to that yet, but I knew I was in trouble when I was admiring Gus Farrote’s tight spirals. :rolleyes:

Yeah…he’s got some miles on that shoulder, which looks it’s warranty just expired. I’m not giving up hope yet, but if his shoulder isn’t healthy by now, when will it be? What this team needs is a bye week, not back to back match-ups with the Jags & Ravens.

I’m missing him quite a bit. I’ll also say that the defensive line without Fabini is also hurting. They rush the passer quite well, but why pass when you can run the ball up the gut all the time?

Tiki looked great in week one, and you might actually have a “thunder & lightning” thing going with Jacobs. Although it looks like Ron “Almost a yard” Dayne had a somewhat productive day yesterday. Enjoy the game tonight.

15

I’ve missed this thread two weeks running now.

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Washington-Dallas

**Omni: ** On this one I think you have the right facts and come to the wrong conclusion on the analysis – you get the Washington D will shut down the Cowboys running game and then it will all be on Bledsoe … vs. the NFL coach who knows him best (maybe even better than Parcells?) Gregg Williams.

Looking at last year:

Game no.1
Week 3, Dallas 21-18 Richie Anderson and Terry Glenn hooked up on a 26 yrd TD halfback option pass as Dallas stunned the Redskins 21-18 at FedExField on Monday Night Football. (BTW Brunell threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns in his best game as a skin and *that * is why he is starting tonight)

Game no.2
The Cowboys’ 13-10 over Washington. Patrick Crayton caught a 15-yard pass on 4th-and-10 before hauling in a 39-yard touchdown with 30 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.

I think take Washington and the 6.*

And I realize a) you picked all the games and I am picking 1 and b) I have the benefit of the observing the relative strength of the Bears, Pack (Lions last week opponent) , and Chargers thru the 2nd games which you didn’t have.

  • I am a total Washington homer – you are crazy if you bet based on this
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You should be big favorites in both, and I’ll be betting just about anything up to a 7 point spread. Call it 10 for the Lions.

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Last year doesn’t mean much to me. Rarely is it a good indicator of the upcoming results. One thing you didn’t comment on was the fact that it’s a home game for the Cowboys. Of last week’s wins, though the Bears had a big week this week against a awful team, I still think the win over the Chargers is the more impressive of the two. As it stands, both teams are pretty evenly matched in all phases of the game, but I still like Bledsoe a little more than Brunell. 6 points is a bigger spread than I feel confident with, but my gut tells me to go with it. We’ll see.

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In past seasons I’ve always tried to get the thread up on Thursdays, based off the spreads listed in USA Today. The same as Gazoo did before me. In my experience the spreads simply don’t move that much between Thursday and Sunday. Maybe a point at most when a injury status gets updated, but I don’t know that thats been an issue in the first two weeks so far.

I’d rather go off of Thursday spreads and give everyone a extra few days to reply and participate than to be perfectly accurate with gametime spreads.

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You make a compelling case; include the over/unders and I’ll go with yours. (That was the main reason I went over to the Post to check the spreads.