OK kids, I’m back. Sorry for the short delay but Thursday are getting a little busy. I’ve been playing flag football Thursday nights and then going to the bar afterwards. It’s wreaking havoc with my wagering and predictions.
Quick FFL note, I just completed a trade in my money league, Warrick Dunn straight up for Chris Chambers. I think it’s a pretty good move, I was loaded at RB and still have Anderson, McAllister, J. Jones, and Steven Davis. My WR corp has been drastically underachieving with starters Burleson, Bennett and Branch. I feel like I made a sizable improvement.
Lemme throw a quick rant out there. Many of you probably read EPSN’s Bill Simmons regularly. I’m probably what you’d call a fan boy, sad huh? Anyways, take a look at a couple snippets from todays column:
WTF! I’m apoplectic here. Can you picture Favre in a Bears uni? Ugh, people would be shooting at him from rooftops, both Bears fans and Packer fans. It’s might be the first time we were ever in agreement. Emotionally, historically this might be the worst suggestion ever. It’s like him suggesting the Red Sox trade Papi and Papelbon for Clemens, except worse because Favre sucks now and Clemens is good. Also, the trade he proposes is fucking off the charts bad. Two No. 1s for a guy who people are wanting to retire now? Even if he were playing like 98 Favre, would you give up 2 first rounders for a guy that has maybe one year in him? Granted I’m the first guy to state that Benson is the worst draft choice since Curtis Enis, but still at least he has a little potential. And next years first rounder would probably be a top 10 pick, without Favre we’ll be in the top 3 and have a shot at Reggie Bush. Baffling. Excuse me while I throw my keyboard across the goddamn room.
Now read what I wrote a week or so ago here. Yes, yes indeed.
Ok, enough banter, on to the picks. I’m going to try and limit the commentary some since we’re a little behind schedule, I may go back and elaborate or revise some picks later today or tomorrow since I’m not looking too close at stats and basically going with the gut. Also, I’ll come back and tally up my running totals after last weeks mess.
Sunday, Oct. 9
CLEVELAND 3 Chicago 36
Da Bears. Favre in a Jim Harbaugh jersey? The mind boggles. Cleveland worries me and I don’t have much faith in Orton on the road. Both teams are coming off a bye, I’m not sure who that favors. The Browns are going to struggle to run the ball and the Bears will have some success. Braylon Edwards has been very impressive so far, I totally did not predict that. He reminds me of a young TO minus the crazy. As solid as Dilfer has been he’s going to be playing the best D he’s faced to date, and without a running game the Browns will need to rely on Orton mistakes to put up points. I’m taking the Bears, but I’m not staking money on it.
The pick: Bears, Under
Note: Watching the Pregame for the Sox-Sox in Fenway and they are playing the Rocky theme calling it “Do-or-Die”. Not sure how I feel about this.
GREEN BAY 3 New Orleans 41
All season long I’m taking the over when the Pack are playing. The weather’s going to be a little chilly, and that might hurt the Saints. The Saints, as I’ve pointed out repeatedly, are a non-starter for wagering. The gut tells me that Favre gets it together here and the Saints make lots of mistakes in Lambeau.
The pick: Packers, Over
**Tampa Bay 3½ N.Y. JETS 31½ **
V-I-N-N-Y……they still suck. The Bucs D is going to devour, devour I say, the Jets. However, without a healthy Cadillac the Bucs may struggle to find consistentcy on offense themselves. Griese looked like the Griese of old last week, but I think Gruden gets them back on track. Even if they are stuck with Pittman, I think he’ll manage to run against that D.
The pick: Bucs, Under
**ST. LOUIS 3 Seattle 49½ **
You know, Mike Martz is a real piece of work. Did you see that stupid reverse call last week? It’s a nightmare for me, the Rams still have a ton of talent but Martz is the great equalizer……in the wrong way. I’m going to go with the gut and not over think this one. Alexander needs to have a big day because the Seahawks WRs are either hurt or sucky. The Rams have good numbers against the run, but haven’t played anyone worth a crap on the ground.
The pick: Seahawks, Under
**ATLANTA 2½ New England 43½ **
Wounded Pats go on the road. Just for kicks, here’s the injury report for this matchup:
Patriots: PROBABLE: QB Tom Brady (right shoulder)
QUESTIONABLE: LB Tully Banta-Cain (knee); LB Matt Chatham (knee); CB Randall Gay (ankle); T Brandon Gorin (thigh); DE Marquise Hill (ankle); WR Bethel Johnson (knee); CB Tyrone Poole (ankle); S James Sanders (ankle); CB Chad Scott (shoulder/hand); DE Richard Seymour (knee); CB Duane Starks (thigh)
OUT: RB Kevin Faulk (foot); T Matt Light (ankle)
Falcons: PROBABLE: QB Michael Vick (knee)
Um, feeling confident in the champs? For some reason Harrison isn’t even listed as OUT. Maybe they ran out of space and it was truncated……I’ve got a feeling that the Pats will get it together, Belichick and Brady are both pissed and talking big to the media. However the Falcon D has looked really really impressive. They just don’t have enough to handle them.
The pick: Falcons, Under
**BUFFALO 2½ Miami 33½ **
The Bills pulled Losman for Rob Johnson. That’s all I need to know.
The pick: Dolphins, Under
**DETROIT 1 Baltimore 33 **
Can’t remember the last time I saw a 1 point spread. The Anthony Wright Experience vs Joey Harrington Surprise, who do you like? I thought the Lions got hosed last week, and as a result I lost a bet. That TD would have given me the over, I was not pleased. At any rate, something tells me that the Lions offense will put a few things together here. Just a little more than the artist former known as Jamal Lewis can.
The pick: Lions, Under
**HOUSTON 3 Tennessee 40½ **
Both teams have looked pathetic. The Titans have keys guys like Bennett, Kinney and Troupe dinged up and questionable. Assuming a couple of those guys play, I’m going to just go with the best player on the field. That player is Steve McNair.
The pick: Titans, Over
**Indianapolis 15 SAN FRANCISCO 46½ **
15 points? Wow. I just have a feeling that the 49ers will keep it together at home and play reasonably well. Then again, they are yanking Rattay for Alex Smith. Cardinal rule, never bet on a rookie QB against a Super Bowl contender.
The pick: Colts, Under
**Carolina 2½ ARIZONA 43 **
This is one of those red flag games, a team that played on Monday night going on the road across the country. Normally I’d go against them quickly, but this is the Cardinals we’re talking about, a team that was in Mexico City last week. I suppose that might balance it out a little bit. The Cards D hasn’t been terrible, and McCown looked good last week, but the Panthers aren’t the 49ers.
The pick: Panthers, Over
**Philadelphia 3 DALLAS 44½ **
You know, I want to pick the home team here. I’ve picked a scary number of road teams this week, a fact I may have to review later, but just picture the statue-like Bledsoe up against the Eagles frequent blitzes. Is that something you’d stake hard earned money on? I think not.
The pick: Eagles, Under
DENVER 6½ Washington 35
That’s seems to be too many points against a team that’s 3-0. I do like Denver at home, but Washington has been pretty good against the run. When it comes down to it, I think the Broncos will win the game, but I can’t give away that many points. One too many mistakes by Plummer under pressure and Portis gets motivated enough to make a game of it. Yes, I’m picking another road team……though if I change any picks, this will be the first.
The pick: Redskins, Over
**JACKSONVILLE 2½ Cincinnati 37 **
This is nuts, as good as the Jags D has been and as solid as the aged Jimmy Smith has played, even at home they should be favored over the Bengals. Granted this is the first thing that’s resembled a test for the Bengals, but they shouldn’t be underdogs. Sigh, will I talk myself in another road dog? Everything in me says that the Bengals will win. But damn! The Jags took it on the chin at home last week, why shouldn’t they again? Someone please talk me out of some of these picks……
The pick: Bengals, Over
Monday, Oct. 10
SAN DIEGO 3 Pittsburgh 45
Finally I get to pick a home team. Between my man-crush on LT and the fact that I’ve picked an absurd number of road teams, I’m not even going to allow myself a chance to rationalize a way to go against the Chargers here. I know Bettis is due back and the Steelers D is just a bit better than the Giants :rolleyes:, but still!
The pick: Chargers, Under
Also, I am at least as big a Simmons fan boy as you, probably a bigger one, given that I grew up nearest to Boston and those are my teams. His trade is kind of crazy… mostly because of the whole Favre in a Bears uniform thing, though. He definitely has a point that the Bears are a halfway competent QB away from being a serious contender, and they might even be willing to overpay a little for such a QB… but Favre is absolutely the wrong one.