NFL Predictions - Week 6 (Where Fred Smoot is planning my weekend)

Sunday, Oct. 16
**DALLAS 3½ NY Giants 47 **
This game could be a shootout, but I think that Dallas’s D at home will contain the Giants offense enough to get the W. For all the hype Eli’s been getting, Bledsoe has been even better. If Jones is out of the game, I reserve the right to flip-flop.

The pick: Cowboys, Over

**DETROIT 1 Carolina 41½ **
Tough game to call. I’m inclined to take the Panthers here, the odds of Harrington and Co having another big game against a solid D is slim, but the Lions have been a different team at home. Also, both Foster and Davis are dinged up and questionable. If they are depleted a RB, it creates a totally different dynamic.

The pick: Lions, Under

**Atlanta 5½ NEW ORLEANS 43½ **
The Saints were getting stomped on and now they are without my boy Deuce? Things are liable to get ugly with this nasty Falcons D. Doesn’t matter that it’s a “home” game.

The pick: Falcons, Under

**CHICAGO 3 Minnesota 37½ **
Sex Cruise! Woo hoo! Am I the only one who doesn’t get the outrage? So a bunch of rich, young men chartered a couple boats, had some girls come along, clothing was removed, one or two people may have had some sex….and this is disgusting thing? Seriously? With the outrage you’d think these guys were burning crosses or something. I suppose if it were in Vegas it’s be okay. Also, have you seen Minnesota women…I’m more than a little jealous. There’s way too much Swedish and Norwegian blood up there, my brain just about exploded.

The pick: Bears, Under

**KANSAS CITY 5½ Washington 43 **
This game will pivot on if Willie Roaf plays or not. If he does, they should win at home. If not, the Redskins D wins the day. Either way, I’m taking those points.

The pick: Redskins, Under

**Cincinnati 3 TENNESSEE 45 **
Another road test for the Bengals. If they win this one I’m going to say they are for real. I think the Titans in Tennessee is a real test. Hope to see T.J. Houshmandzadeh back in the game. I think in the end the Titans will be outmanned on defense.

The pick: Bengals, Over

**PITTSBURGH 3 Jacksonville 34 **
Big Ben probably won’t play, Hines Ward is iffy as well. Though, the Jags have been less than impressive on the road don’t stop the run very well. That’s usually enough for the Steelers to get a win at home. Don’t think that I’m not nervous pinning my hopes on Chaz Batch……

The pick: Steelers, Under

**BALTIMORE 6 Cleveland 34½ **
I think the Ravens are imploding, and last week was an indicator. I don’t care that it’s the Browns on the road. They looked solid against the Bears and Dilfer made enough plays to get it done. The Bears D is better than the Ravens right now, and I see no reason to expect anything from the Ravens O. 6 points is a gift.

The pick: Browns, Under

TAMPA BAY 4½ Miami 35
Ricky is back! Not that it really matters, the rookie has finally managed to entrench himself and be successful. The Bucs have been all over the place, and I’m conscious of Shibbs feelings if I pick them. The Phins have been crap on the road and the Bucs solid at home. Cadillac is expected to play so that could be the difference.

The pick: Bucs, Over [sub]Sorry Shibb[/sub]

**DENVER 3 New England 47 **
The bruised Pats got a big win last week against the odds, I was impressed. However, they are still a little banged up and now have to go into Mile High where home field has mattered. Of course there’s the Plummer factor, but I am going to hold my nose and take a drink anyways.

The pick: Broncos, Under

**BUFFALO 3 NY Jets 32½ **
J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets………um, never mind. The trend continues! The Jets Suck! The Jets have to go on the road and play a team that isn’t missing its no. 1 RB. Kelly Holcomb is better than Losman and better than Vinny, and I’m just giddy that the Bills are my fantasy D this weekend.

The pick: Bills, Over

**San Diego 2 OAKLAND 50½ **
The Chargers played well last week, but now they have to go on the road following a Monday night game. This is usually a deadly combo for a team, but one upside is that it’s a short trip to a town they know well. Things certainly get rough in the Black Hole, but a guy like LT can quiet a crowd in a hurry. Tough game to pick, especially with the Raiders coming off a bye week. Still, I have been impressed with the way SD has played over the last few weeks, they’ve looked like a team with a purpose.

The pick: Chargers, Over

**SEATTLE 9 Houston 46 **
This feels like a no brainer.

The pick: Seahawks, Under

Monday, Oct. 17
**INDIANAPOLIS 13½ St. Louis 51½ **
Am I the only one that thinks the Rams will get a bounce from Martz being gone? I think Indy’s going to get the win here, so the debate is whether they’ll win by 2 TDs or not. The Rams D has been non-existent this season and they go on the road. It’s still a dome, but it’s not enough to give you an expectation of a turnaround. This line has been creeping upwards all week, so the popular choice must be a Colts cover. I’m not willing to buck the trend.

The pick: Colts, Under

And now for a quick bonus game!

Saturday, Oct. 15
usc 12 NOTRE DAME
This is going to be a fun game to watch, I’m tempted to make the trip over to South Bend to tailgate. A bunch of my friends all are going to the game and are booking a Hummer Limo to drive them to a from the game. Tickets are out of my price range on Stubhub, but it might be fun to go tailgate and see if I get lucky with a scalper. We’ll see, it’ll mean I get virtually zero sleep all weekend, but it is the game of the year……Hmmm. Anyways, who’s gonna win? Well, I’ll tell you right now that it shouldn’t be a 12 point spread. The Trojans have been beatable on the road and the Irish can play D better than the Pac10. Reggie Bush is a little dinged up, but White isn’t a big drop off if he needs to miss some snaps. Count me as one guy who believes that Charlie Weis getting an extra week to prepare will have an impact. So far Notre Dame has played the tougher schedule and has been tested, so stats might not tell the whole story. USC loves the spotlight and tends to get better when the media is in a frenzy, but the rabid fans will be giving the Irish a boost all game long. I’m looking forward to watching this puppy, that’s for sure.

The pick: Fighting Irish….but I think USC still gets the W straight up.

Apparently everyone agrees with me wholeheartedly.

Aggghhh! I feel like Charlie Brown and Lucy. Now, first, there is absolutely no way this game is over. Second, I think the Bucs wheels are coming off, so don’t be surprised if they don’t win. Big powerful runners normally give them fits, although a steady diet of Gus Ferret may be just what they need, so I expect them to be a bit soft on defense unless they make at least two picks.

USC wins this going away. Only thing keeping this close is the game being played in South Bend. But I have to think that Pete Carroll is itching to show himself off big on a regular Saturday in front of a huge audience.

USC 45 - ND 30

All right, I’ll give it a go. I’m new to football, so I’m not going to get myself twisted with things like spreads that I’ll have no hope with. This is all straight up wins. And since I am new, take my consideration with a big grain of salt, even though I have picked 62% this season (starting round 2).

Sunday, Oct. 16
DALLAS 3½ NY Giants 47

I don’t trust Dallas. They lose when I pick them, they win when I don’t. Anyway, didn’t the Giants beat the Rams last week? Giants will do this.

DETROIT 1 Carolina 41½
Oooh, I’m not sure. I’d like the Panthers if they were at home, and I haven’t seen much of the Lions. But I have a feeling they’re better than I think they are. Also, I think the Panthers aren’t as good as I think they are. Lions.

Atlanta 5½ NEW ORLEANS 43½
Falcons are good. Saints are homeless and can’t be relied upon to win anything. Falcons.

CHICAGO 3 Minnesota 37½
I don’t have a whole lot of love for Chicago, but the Vikings suck. Who thought getting rid of Randy Moss was a good idea? Besides, Minnesota will be way too busy with post-cruise shit to worry about playing football. Chicago.

KANSAS CITY 5½ Washington 43
Yeah, I’m not real sure about this one. Washington don’t seem as good as their win record would suggest - they could just as easily have lost to Seattle and Dallas and they’d be looking very different. Kansas City looked unstoppable when they played Denver, but then the week after that they played some team whom I can’t remember and were kinda shite. I’ll stick with the Redskins, but I’m not confident.

Cincinnati 3 TENNESSEE 45
Bengals are the real deal. No one believes it yet, but it’s true. I haven’t seen the Titans do anything wonderful, and the Bengals are good. In case you missed it, Bengals.

PITTSBURGH 3 Jacksonville 34
I’m loathe to go against Pittsburgh, but I have to. Last week I stayed certain the Steelers would triumph, even though everyone else seemed to be giving it to the Chargers. This week… well, haven’t they just lost their QB? Besides, every time I see the Jaguars they look kind of nasty.

BALTIMORE 6 Cleveland 34½
Yeah, Baltimore got nothing. Browns.

TAMPA BAY 4½ Miami 35
Why do I not like Miami? I don’t know, but I don’t like Miami. Tampa is at home, and I don’t like Miami. I think Miami reminds me of the '49ers and the Packers - teams that were once good (I think) when I didn’t pay attention to football, but aren’t worth speaking of now.

DENVER 3 New England 47
Last week was the last time I go against the Pats. I’ve learned my lesson. Broncos are good, but Pats all the way, baby.

BUFFALO 3 NY Jets 32½
I always seem to be neutral on Buffalo. Picking with them is always done on the basis of my feelings about the other team. I feel that that the Jets are not good. Therefore, I pick Buffalo.

San Diego 2 OAKLAND 50½
Chargers will not lose. Oakland have Randy Moss and nothing. Chargers have LT Smash and a team that keeps winning games.

SEATTLE 9 Houston 46
I’m struggling to come up with ways the Seahawks can lose this.

Monday, Oct. 17
INDIANAPOLIS 13½ St. Louis 51½
I’m struggling to come up with ways the Colts can lose this. And sure, it would be a whole lot harder to pick if I had to take the spread into account, but I told you, I know nowhere near enough to do that. You notice how I do things like go against Miami because I just don’t like them? I have no business considering spreads.

1:00pm…**COWBOYS…3½…Giants…47…**Giants, of course, and bet the 401k on the OVER.
1:00pm…**LIONS…1…Panthers…41½…**Panthers need this win.
1:00pm…**Falcons…5½…SAINTS…43½…**Even with Vick, the Falcons should cover this. Under.
1:00pm…**BEARS…3…Vikings…37½…**No clue.
1:00pm…**CHIEFS…5½…Redskins…43…**Redskins cover, and may win outright. Over.
1:00pm…**Bengals…3…TITANS…45…**Chad stops crying w/the win, but Titans cover. Over.
1:00pm…**STEELERS…3…Jaguars…34…**Steelers and the over.
1:00pm…**RAVENS…6…Browns…34½…**Browns win outright, but it stays under.
1:00pm…**BUCS…4½…Dolphins…35…**Dolphins expose the Bucs. Over.

4:15pm…**BRONCOS…3…Patriots…47…**Patriots keep it rolling. Under.
4:15pm…**BILLS…3…Jets…32½…**Jets have the better veteran QB. Over.
4:15pm…**Chargers…2…RAIDERS…50½…**I like all four bets, which is never a good sign.

8:30pm…**SEAHAWKS…9…Texans…46…**Seahawks and the under. How bad are the Texans?
9:00pm…**COLTS…13½…Rams…51½…**Rams run without Martz, so bet the under.

Spread Picker Picks
4 Rams
4 Ravens
3 Cowboys
3 Panthers
3 Texans
2 Chiefs
2 Saints
2 Vikings
1 Broncos
1 Bucs
1 Steelers

I hate all the spread picker picks this week, which is usually a red flag that I’m about to lose my shirt. Ignoring this and going with my gut anyway…

Early Games
Risk 110 for 100 on the Over: Giants @ Cowboys

Late Games
If down 110, risk 55 for 120 on the Jets & Pats, or else
Risk 30 for 60 on the Jets & Pats

Sunday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Seahawks & the Under

Monday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Rams & the Under

[post=6673256]Standings[/post]
Last week: 13-6, +20
Season: 32-40, -175
Spread Picker: 13-5

Seems I’ve picked a few games in the minority… yet again.

Considering my track record in the Pick-em leagues lately, I could use a few upsets to get me back into the competition.

If this is truly the case, then I’ll be laying all the blame squarely on you if my Giants lose.

**DALLAS 3½ NY Giants 47 **
Dallas D will keep this close, but I think the G-Men will pull it out.

The pick: Giants, Under

**DETROIT 1 Carolina 41½ **
I just can’t pick Detroit. Perhaps it’s pathological.

The pick: Panthers, Over

**Atlanta 5½ NEW ORLEANS 43½ **
Where is this home game, anyway? Falcons go over if Vick is not back, if he is then Falcons and under.

The pick: Falcons, Over

**CHICAGO 3 Minnesota 37½ **
Sex Cruise! Any pics on the internet yet?

The pick: Bears, Under

**KANSAS CITY 5½ Washington 43 **

The pick: Chiefs up, Skins ATS, Under

**Cincinnati 3 TENNESSEE 45 **
I have a feeling the Bengal’s D wins this for them.

The pick: Bengals, Under

**PITTSBURGH 3 Jacksonville 34 **
I normally wouldn’t touch this with an eleven foot pole. Since it ain’t gonna cost me nuthin’ I’ll hunch it out.

The pick: Jags SU & ATS, Over

**BALTIMORE 6 Cleveland 34½ **

The pick: Browns, Under

TAMPA BAY 4½ Miami 35
Lots of running in this game and tough defense should keep the score low. Even better if they never allow Griese to throw the ball.

The pick: Bucs SU, Dolphins ATS, Under

**DENVER 3 New England 47 **

The pick: Pats SU & ATS, way Under

**BUFFALO 3 NY Jets 32½ **

The pick: Bills, Over

**San Diego 2 OAKLAND 50½ **
ANother don’t touch this pick.

The pick: Chargers, Under

**SEATTLE 9 Houston 46 **
The pick: Seahawks, Under

Monday, Oct. 17
**INDIANAPOLIS 13½ St. Louis 51½ **

The pick: Colts SU, Rams ATS, Under
OMNI Picks: Hawsk, Bills, Fins, Skins, Falcons

Last week: 1-5
Season: 1-7

I’ll take the Lions because Carolina isn’t even a real city.

Atlanta got pretty roughed up last week against the Patriots; more red shirts dropped in that game than in a Star Trek marathon. Looking at the injury list, it seems none of the injurieswere long-lasting, and the Saints stink, so i’ll take the Falcons.

The Steelers seem unbeatable(until the AFC Championship comes, of course), i’ll stick with them.

The Patriots have more injured palyers than healthy. I hear the towel boy is playing cornerback. But i’ve learned never to bet against the Patriots when they’re the underdog. It pisses them off and they win just to spite me.

I like the way San Diego has played this season and i hate Raiders’ fans, so i’ll go with the Chargers.

After last night, I was downgraded from probable to questionable for getting up in time to watch all the games today… but I’m pretty sure it was just Belichick screwing around with the league.*

For five this week, I like:

Panthers, Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, Seahawks

even though that leaves me picking three teams that I just HATE picking because they’re so unpredictable.

Mostly, though, I just can’t bring myself to take the Pats. They should win this game for sure - Atlanta last week was a better team than Denver IMO, and Matt Schaub is better than at least a third of the starters in the league, Plummer included. The Pats ALWAYS have trouble when they’re in Denver, though, and with the way they’ve been up and down, it leaves me a little wary. On the plus side, they won’t be blacked out by my “home teams” this week because of the 4:15 start, so I’ll actually be able to see the game (wheee!).

On the other hand, who do I have to kill to get the Cowboys/Giants over Skins/Chiefs? :mad:

*for anyone outside of New England who may not have been following, Belichick seems to be pretty convinced that the Falcons never had any intention of playing Vick last week, and just used the injury report as a toy to make the Patriots prepare for him. Belichick has been chastised and fined by the league for this practice a number of times in the past, but no one said anything about the Falcons last week. So instead of bitching and getting himself in more trouble… this Thursday, fifteen new Patriots appeared on the injury list as probable (missed part of practice, <whatever body part was hurting>). On Friday, every probable was downgraded to questionable. Except for Brady, who has been probable (shoulder) for two and a half years now. Great stuff.

Just realized that I forgot to post my Pick 5…you’ll just have to trust me that I’m not cheating. Atlanta, Redskins, Bills, Seattle, Cincy

Oh, and how about some props for that UCS/ND game? Methinks I nailed it, especially calling the excellent effort by the Irish D.

Too many missed opportunities by the Giants and Cowboys both for either team (or it’s fans) to be celebrating over but it’s nice to see both the resurgent strength in the NFC East overall and parity within. Boys in a squeaker; 16 - 13.

And Ellis, yes, I’m fully aware this performance wasn’t reflective of what y’all usually see at home w/ Eli.

woops!

Quick recap of the early games.

Looks like I was 3-6 ATS and 5-4 vs. the O/U…it’s getting comically bad.

When Jacobs fumbled, I said to myself “I’ll take an overtime loss”, and that’s exactly what I got. Aikman ranted about putting Jacobs in, but he clearly didn’t do any homework on the Giants; Coughlin would have been crucified if he didn’t put Jacobs in. That’s the exact situation he was drafted for.

It’s now officially become a trend…Eli struggles on the road. That’s NOT A GOOD SIGN. sigh

Good win Cowboys…let’s see how you fare in East Rutherford.

Yay Broncs! Wish I had money on the game, as it was Broncos and the over. Brady is a damn good comeback quarterback, but you can’t win them all the time, and even cutting a 25 point deficit down to 8 is pretty good.

My results thus far:

Dallas D will keep this close, but I think the G-Men will pull it out.
Giants, Under

The pick: Panthers, Over

The pick: Falcons, Over

The pick: Bears, Under

The pick: Chiefs up, Skins ATS, Under

The pick: Bengals, Under

The pick: Jags SU & ATS, Over

The pick: Browns, Under

The pick: Bucs SU, Dolphins ATS, Under

The pick: Pats SU & ATS, way Under

The pick: Bills, Over

The pick: Chargers, Under

**SEATTLE 9 Houston 46 **
The pick: Seahawks, Under

Monday, Oct. 17
**INDIANAPOLIS 13½ St. Louis 51½ **

The pick: Colts SU, Rams ATS, Under
OMNI Picks: Hawsk, Bills, Fins, Skins, Falcons
SU 9-3, ATS 7-5, O/U 7-5 in the first twelve games. Sucking in the Omni picks, though.

The Sunday night game moves me to SU 10-3, ATS 8-5, O/U 7-6.

I’m waiting until after MNF for my roundup as usual, but holy shit, I am so fucking happy that I don’t bet anymore. Jesus Christ I suck at betting.

The messed up thing is that I still feel like I’m down 400. Not completely, but in the back of my mind it’s nagging at me. And it is a most unpleasant feeling, to say the least.

The spread picker clinched above .500 this week, at 6-4 right now,with the Rams pick tonight.

Well, this was a nice little turn around. Odd though that I can’t seem to get both the ATS and O/U picks both right ever…strange.

Went 4-0 ATS in the late games and 1-3 in the O/U. Finally I’ve clinched at least a .500 week ATS.