OK, first and foremost this is going to be a strange week. Only one road team is favored in any of these games. While there are two games without a line yet, I’m guessing at best only one of those could be expected to have a road favorite. When things like that happen you can usual expect something very unusual to happen and as a result most bettors will either have very very good weeks or very very bad weeks. Here’s to hoping, eh?
Sunday, Oct. 30
**N.Y. GIANTS 2 Washington 42 **
Eli’s looking pretty good, there’s no doubt. I never thought he’d step up and was expecting him to have a very Tim Couch like career. I’m not disappointed to be wrong; he’ll be fun to root against just so long as it doesn’t lead to a run of Giants Super Bowls. I don’t know who I favor more here, Brunell, Moss and Portis had big games last week and the Giants D leaves a lot to be desired. The Redskins could put up a big number for the second week in a row. They’ll need to score to keep ahead of that potent NY offense, but the Redskins defense is good enough to slow them down some. Perhaps even getting to Eli. It’s possible that the Giants will get a bit of an emotional bounce form the passing and sentimentality surrounding Well Mora’s death, I’m sure the home crowd will respond to whatever ceremonies they have. In any case, I think the Redskins are just a little bit more of a well rounded team.
The Pick: Redskins, Over
**CINCINNATI 9 Green Bay 46 **
Think the Bungles are stewing over last week’s loss? I doubt it, but I bet Marvin cracked the whip a little more frequently in practice this week. The Pack are simply decimated by injuries right now at all their key positions except QB, and he’s fractured in his own way. Everything out there points to a big Bengal victory, though part of me thinks the Pack will mount one last gasp. I can see Brett tightening up and willing the ball down the field, the Pack D playing way over their heads on pure emotion and getting a surprising win……but that’s not going to happen away from Lambeau.
Think the Bears can lure the Pack into giving up next years #1 pick for the rights to Benson? God I would love that……
The Pick: Bengals, Under
**DETROIT 3 Chicago 32½ **
You kidding me? Garcia has one mediocre game against a crappy defense and the Lions are the next big juggernaut? Is everyone forgetting about the last match up between these two teams? Do you suppose that was all about Soldier Field and Joey Harrington? Of course I’m a little nervous about the prospect of the Bears going on the road into a dome, but this spread is silly. Now, we know that the Bears defense will exert themselves against the Lions. Kevin Jones if going to have a very very long day and Garcia may take some nasty hits and not finish the game. However, will this quietly resurgent Lions defense cause similar stress for Kyle Orton on the road? I think the answer is yes, but that doesn’t mean that Mr Thomas Jones won’t flex his muscles and see to it that the chains are moving. I expect a pretty busy day for the Bears kicking team, but on Monday the Lions will be having a QB controversy all over again.
Kind of a shame this is a road game, it’d have been nice to trot the Sox out onto Soldier field for a standing O.
The Pick: Bears, Under
**CAROLINA 8 Minnesota 44½ **
This number feels a little bit too big, but the Panthers have a hefty advantage over this Vikings team. I don’t expect the Vikes to move the ball on the ground at all, nor do I think they’ll stuff the combo of Foster and Davis. It warrants mentioning that the Viking passing game isn’t totally DOA and should score some points. I’m conflicted. The Vikings have looked lost on the road this year, and I think that’s being awfully kind. The Panthers have only played in one game with a margin greater than 4 points, and that was a 10 point win at home over the Pats. It doesn’t really bode well for them covering that 8 point spread, and it’s not like they’ve played a very strong schedule. Then again, they are coming off a bye week in which I’m pretty sure a sex boat was not involved. I’m going to take a chance and pick the Vikes to score enough points to cover.
The Pick: Vikings, Over
**TENNESSEE N/L Oakland N/L **
Checking in later.
**DALLAS 9 Arizona 40½ **
Fred, er, Julius Jones is going to be out once again with a splinter in his thumb or something. That’s going to slow the Dallas offense a little bit, especially on first down. Arizona’s running game is probably the worst in recent memory, it’s running backs combining for a whopping 2.4 yard/carry average. So, the question is how potent is each teams passing attack is relative to one another and how stingy the defenses can be. Dallas has the edge in the running game even without Jones and they are a bit better on defense, but not by a large margin. The Cardinals passing game is capable of outstripping the Cowboys so long as Bledsoe is rushed and it’s McCown under center. The point being, that even in Dallas, I don’t see the Cowboys blowing out the Cardinals here.
The Pick: Cardinals, Under
**HOUSTON 2 Cleveland 37½ **
What? The Texans are favored? That’s garbage, the 3 INT Dilfer was a fluke. Were Andre Johnson playing I might give them a decent chance, but I think Houston’s gonna miss out on the chance to get that elusive first win. Big game for Braylon Edwards this week.
The Pick: Browns, Over
**NEW ORLEANS 2 Miami 41 **
Which force of suckitude will over power the other? The chaos that is the New Orleans Saints season or the ineptness that is the Dolphins on the road? New Orleans D hasn’t been too bad, but they have been weak against the run, Miami’s strength. Aaron Brooks had a good week last week but now he’s got to manage the game against one of the leagues best defenses. I’m envisioning one of those Aaron Brooks games where anything is possible, backwards passes, pooch punts, an 80 yard bomb and about 16 sacks.
The Pick: Dolphins, Over
And yes, right now I’ve picked 6 of 7 road dogs…………oh my god.
**ST. LOUIS N/L Jacksonville N/L **
….moving on.
**SAN DIEGO 6 Kansas City 50 **
These teams are clones of one another. KC has the slight edge in that they had an extra 2 days in which to prepare for this game. The blue print the Eagles laid out to stop LT could be of use as well. By the way, did you guys watch that Jimmy Kimmel gimmick where he had Lawrence Taylor on getting pissed and threatening Tomlinson for stealing his nickname? Good times. This could be one of those surprisingly low scoring games, both defenses have shown flashes, and all the action on the ground will shorten this game. I’m a little surprised that the Chargers are so favored, I’d have expected one of those non-committal 3 point spreads. Frankly, I have no idea so I’m going to break the trend and just go with the home favorite.
The Pick: Chargers, Under
**Tampa Bay 11 SAN FRANCISCO 36 **
You saw by statement last week. Until further notice I’m not going against any of those big spreads. News of note, Ken Dorsey is announced as the 49er QB.
The Pick: Bucs, Over
**DENVER 3½ Philadelphia 42½ **
I like Denver at home against an iffy Eagles team. That Eagles offense is just fragile, and the Broncos tend to dominate at home on both sides of the ball. I’m not expecting a repeat of the brick wall defense for the Eagles against the Broncos running game which has found its stride. They handled the pass happy Pats and they’ll do the same here.
The Pick: Broncos, Under
**NEW ENGLAND 9 Buffalo 44 **
I’m expecting extreme unpleasantness for Bills fans. The Pats have been getting pushed around some this season and with Belichick getting a bye week to prepare, you better believe that the Bills are getting the Pats best fastball Sunday night. The loss of Takeo Spikes is probably the fork in the back, not to mention the loss of one of the funnest names to hear from the PA guy.
The Pick: Pats, Under
Monday, Oct. 31
PITTSBURGH 9½ Baltimore 33
You know, this game is a no brainer. There just is no way the Steelers should be giving fewer than 10 points. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are out, the Steelers got it done in a big way last week and they are at home, a place where they are pretty damn good. Expect another one of those Raven meltdown games where things get really chippy, lots of penalties and boneheaded plays, once the score gets out of hand.
The Pick: Steelers, Over
