. . . At stake is not just the country’s political future, but what some see as a radical anti-American, left-wing resurgence sweeping Latin America.
As the dominos have fallen one by one, U.S. officials have grown more wide-eyed and alarmed.
A dozen presidential contests and 13 legislative elections come due in Latin America over the next year. Left-wing candidates stand to win in several countries, including Nicaragua and Mexico. A radical former military officer has also leapt into contention in Peru.
These all come on the backs of victories in Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina in recent years.
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A close ally of Cuba’s Fidel Castro and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Morales described his Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party as “a nightmare for the United States.” He vows to end free-market policies and legalize the growing of coca, which is part of indigenous culture but also happens to be the main ingredient in the production of cocaine. He also plans to nationalize Bolivia’s natural gas reserves and rewrite the constitution to better reflect the country’s indigenous majority.
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The son of a tin miner, Morales was born and brought up in the highlands. Four of his six siblings died in infancy and he never finished high school. After the government closed the inefficient state-run tin mines, the Morales family joined the thousands of other poor peasants who turned to growing coca. Coca growers defended their actions by saying the government failed to provide promised funding for alternative agriculture programs.
As cocaine production grew, the United States began to pressure Bolivia to crack down on coca. That’s when Morales began his political ascent, emerging as a powerful union boss for the coca growers battling the U.S.-backed eradication program.
He was demonized by U.S. diplomats, who described him as little more than a murderous thug unworthy of public office. Today, his talk of legalizing coca worries U.S. policymakers who have invested billions in the drug war.
Adding to the explosive political cocktail are Bolivia’s enormous reserves of natural gas. Indigenous leaders vow the potential underground riches will not be “plundered” by foreigners as occurred with the silver mines in colonial times. Protests led to the canceling of contracts that might have shipped the gas to California.
Most of that gas now goes to Brazil by pipeline, which could result in a moderating influence on Morales’ plans. Brazil, the continent’s largest country by far, consumes a lot of gas. Its president, Ignacio Lula da Silva - a leftist, who has stuck with free market policies - wields a lot of clout.
Even so, a Morales victory would likely push Bolivia into the Cuba-Venezuela axis. Using a tried and tested model, Cuban medical teams will likely provide much needed social assistance, fanning out into indigenous rural areas. (Che Guevara, who died trying to lead a revolution in Bolivia in 1967, will no doubt be smiling from his Cuban tomb.) Chavez will provide a financial lifeline thanks to the cash bonanza Venezuela is enjoying from current oil prices.
