[QUOTE=Omniscient]
How many trades can we expect?
With the Raiders, Lions, Dolphins, Bucs and Redskins all interested in a trading out of their top 10 picks we could have a ton of shuffling in the first hour or so of the day.
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What made you exclude the Browns from that list? It’s very likely the draft’s first two picks will be Russel and Johnson, in which case the Browns will very much want to trade down as the remaining players on their draft board can be had a few picks down. There’s a very good chance there won’t be a trade, as trades are pretty rare - but the Browns definitely are open to trading down - probably moreso than the Bucs and Dolphns.
Out of curiosity, why is this? The Browns are a very bad football team - their coaching is (well, was, maybe - Mo Carthon is gone) bottom 3 in the league. The talent base is not good, but it’s mostly coaching holding the team back.
Phil Savage, the general manager since 2005, has actually done a good job. His first top 3 pick, Braylon Edwards, still appears to be the best pick in the top ten, if not the draft. The only arguably better player is Merriman, but no one was seriously considering a DE/LB tweener making a position change as a #3 pick. And who knows if he’ll lose some of his edge now that he’s going to be under scrutiny…
Second round pick Brodney Pool is a solid starter and getting better. Third round pick Charlie Frye… well… he seemed like a good pick at the time.
In 2006, surprise first round pick Kamerion Wimbley had an excellent rookie season that no one heard about because he played for a crappy team. He deserved serious consideration for defensive rookie of the year. A pick that wasn’t on anyone’s radar, but quite possibly the best defender picked in the first round.
Second round pick D’Qwell Jackson so far has been a dissapointment - he might not have the size to play 3-4 eagle/mike. But maybe a year of NFL gym time will help. I’m willing to be patient, because Savage seems to know linebacker talent. (Stabbin’ Ray, Boulware, Adalius Thomas, Bart Scott, etc.)
Third round pick Travis Wilson fell victim to coach catfish’s policy on not playing offensive rookies until they’re in their 5th year in the league.
By the way, fourth round pick Leon Williams (yeah, who?) is a name you’re going to know in a year or two. He saw the field a lot later in the year, and looked really, really good. He played at ILB, but there was some talk of having him take over Paycheck McGinest’s spot on the outside (although that seems less likely having signed a 3-4 OLB in free agency). Unfortunately, I think there’s a good chance that two of our best three linebackers (Leon Williams, Chaun Thompson) will spend a significant part of the year on the bench.
Even the last Butch Davis draft wasn’t terrible. Kellen Winslow was a player, and still did a lot on one knee. Unfortunately, I think he’s going to be out of football not too long in the future. He couldn’t practice all year, and there were some rumors floating around that he moved to a one story house to avoid climbing stairs…
Sean Jones, the second round pick, is a top 10 safety in this league, maybe even top 5. You’ve never heard of him, probably, because he’s a good player in a non-sexy position on a bad team.
Sounds like homerism on my part, but I’d like to think I’m realistic about my team.
We have no talent at all on the defensive line. We’re adequate (good, if LeChuck comes back at anywhere near his former strength) on the offensive line. Our starting inside linebackers suck, our starting LOLB/elephant (McGinest) sucks, our quarterbacking situation is dire, running back (8-ball Jamal) is a big question mark. Our #1 corner, Leigh Bodden, had an absolutely dominant 2005 (if I recall correctly, since Chad Johnson started doing his “Who covered #85?” lists, Leigh Bodden is the only corner to ever get a “yes” check. Maybe Champ Bailey did too, though), but the other corner spots are street free agent types. In 2006, he had nagging injuries all year that kept his performance down.
If he returns to form, I honestly think that he, Wimbley, and Sean Jones are all top 10 at their positions in the NFL. The defense still sucks anyway, due to a lack of defensive linemen, weak cornerbacking depth, and a badly designed defensive strategy that keeps them performing at a lower level than they could.
Anyway - it’s completely unfair to lump Phil Savage in with Millen/the Lions, because he’s done very well in the draft. Because we have the worst coach of Cleveland Browns history - and I’m including Butch Davis here - at the helm, the team sucks in spite of increasing talent levels.
Wow, I really got going on a rant there, didn’t I?
Anyway, I know my Browns football, despite it being nothing but a perpetual kick in the nuts. I watch every play 5+ times (tivo instant replay is almost perfect for this), analyze line play and technique and all that sort of detail, read up about different coaching methodologies, blocking techniques, etc., keep up with all the news, and all that stuff, so I consider myself very well informed.
And.. um… anyway, to talk about the actual subject of the thread…
I, like everyone else, expect Russel or Johnson to go number one. There are rumors floating around that Kiffen is in love with Quinn, and that they already made a lowball contract offer to him, but I don’t think that’s going to turn into anything.
Trent Green is going to Miami or nowhere, so I’m not sure what Oakland would do at QB if they don’t take Russell. Culpepper is the most likely candidate.
If Oakland took JR, Detroit’s best move, aside from a trade down, would be to draft CJ. But they can’t. Fans would be outraged. People everywhere would laugh at them. “Three WRs in 4 years!” - but two of those guys are busts, and CJ is the best player available. So, in order to not look stupid, Detroit actually has to do the stupid thing and pass on CJ. I see a TB/Detroit trade as being fairly likely - TB gets CJ, and Detroit drafts Gaines Adams at #4.
As much as I know my team, I’m totally baffled on their draft intentions. People have the impression that Phil Savage is in love with Jamarcus Russel and hopes that he drops. Mostly based on the fact that Savage apparently knew Russel since he was a boy - Phil Savage had something to do with a football camp that Russel attended as a teenager.
Then people try to play up the Weiss/Quinn/Crennel connection.
I think people just try to make these connections more meaningful than they actually are, to have something to talk about, I guess.
If CJ is here, that most likely means that Russell is gone, and Phil is fully into the BPA camp. He’ll draft him - and either gouge TB or Atlanta for picks in a trade down, or just keep him. Receiver isn’t a dire need for the Browns, but CJ is probably the best WR prospect EVER, and how could you possibly pass that up?
I could see it very likely that if a TB-Det trade doesn’t go down, a TB-Cleveland trade does. If the Browns picked up TB’s 2nd, and then drafted Peterson #4, I’d be very happy.
The recent news about Peterson’s injuries is worrisome. A month or two ago, I was fully in the Peterson camp. Then I started to waver when I came to realize how good CJ is. And then I almost started to want Russell, when I learned more about him.
People like to create false dichotomies, and archetypes, and stereotypes. If Quinn is the less physically talented, but cerebral QB - that must mean that Russell is the big dumb athlete, right? He must be lazy, not a student of the game, only gets by on his athleticism, etc. Well, that’s the popular perception, because people like to see things in terms like that. Racism could also play a role there. But Russel is considered by his coaches to be a good student of the game, and very dedicated. His completion percentage was high as well as his yards per attempt, indicating that he was mentally into the game too. He does have a high bust potential, I admit - he shot into the scene late, he’s had questionable games against good teams, and there are a lot of questions, but it’s hard not to fall in love with his potential, and the Browns are desperately in need of good quarterbacking more than anything else.
Joe Thomas - this is the popular pick among Browns fans, possibly only second to Peterson. The Browns have had a crappy line for long enough that the fans have overcompensated and are convinced that the offense can’t possibly be any good until a top 5 pick is starting at LT. And that you don’t need good “skill” players, only suckers are seduced by that, what you really need is a top 5 lineman to solve all of your ills… and then suddenly your mediocre quarterback will turn into Peyton Manning.
And they seem to think the act of drafting an LT in the top 5 is going to transform him into Ogden or Pace. But Joe Thomas isn’t in the same league as Ogden or Pace, or probably even Walter Jones. He benefits from being the best of a weak tackle class, and I don’t consider him to be elite. To be fair, I only saw one game - his bowl game - but they say you can spot an elite tackle just by watching a series of his plays. I broke down his play and wrote up a report on a Browns message board that I wish I’d saved, as it was very detailed, but it’s lost now.
Short version: He’s a quick athlete with excellent technique and footwork, but questionable power and heart. He seemed to do the bare minimum he could on any given play. If he knocked his man down, out of the play - but another nearby player was chasing down his QB, he didn’t try to help, he just stood there and watched his QB get sacked. He seemed to think he was just there to neutralize one defender on any given play, and once that was taken care of, he was done. Very worrisome attitude.
He also got almost no push whatsoever in the running game. Even though they ran an unbalanced line with him to the strongside (TE-LG-C-RG-RT-LT), they never ran behind him. They’d run up the gut, and then he never actually drove anyone off the ball - he’d usually seal off the outside linebacker from shooting into the backfield, and that was it. It was almost like he was playing pass protection in the run game.
So he’s completely one sided. He’s an excellent technician with good feet, and he’ll make a fine pass blocker. But that’s all he can do, and he has questionable heart, and I want nothing to do with him at #3. I’m not at all opposed to drafting tackles high - I wanted Gallery (shows what I know, right?) - but nothing I saw from Thomas tells me he deserves a top 5 selection, or that he should qualify as an elite talent. I’d be okay with drafting him 15th, or something.
Edit: I don’t mean to rain on your parade, Shodan. I think Thomas will be a solid 10 year starter for someone. I just need a lineman to totally blow me away to justify a top 5 pick, and he hasn’t. I agree that he’s probably going to Arizona, and they can certainly use him.
Quinn I can’t manage to have strong feelings on. I’m really not sure what to make of him.
So my draft board looks something like this:
1a) Adrian Peterson
Elite talent, injury concerns. Previous to the recent news, I didn’t give much concern to his injuries. Ankle, shoulder, fluke collarbone break - nothing that’s going to hurt his career, all common stuff except for the collarbone. Not like he tore his knee up or something. Now, though, if he might need surgery to put a plate in his collarbone, I’m a little iffier. Apparently NFL teams have known this since the combine though, so this recent revelation shouldn’t affect draft boards.
1b) Calvin Johnson. I can’t even manage to call him “2)” because he’s too good. I think that Peterson can be an elite talent - he’s not as good a prospect as Johnson, but he’s just a bit behind in potential. But CJ has no question marks at all - when is the last time you could say that about a draft prospect? Reggie Bush, as hyped as he was, always had doubters about his size and running style translating to the NFL. Calvin Johnson essentially has it all - size, speed, hands, work ethic, good citizenship. I’m very tempted to put him at the top of my list.
Peterson gets slightly ahead because I think an elite RB can have more impact than an elite WR, and the Browns are more in need of a long term solution at RB. I expect big things from Braylon Edwards this year if we have any sort of decent quarterbacking. 1200/10 or better. Year three is that lights on time for WRs, and he was hampered last year by an injury that now has fully recovered.
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Jamarcus Russel.
Quarterback is the team’s biggest need, and this guy can be really, really good. He’s not another Kyle Boller (I sucked in college, but look, I can decapitate a man with this football!) in that he has good productivity in college to go with his physical skills. High bust potential, but a very high ceiling.
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Brady Quinn
Biggest need thing, most NFL ready, etc. Some people like to paint him as a very low likeliness to bust, but he’s got some questions to him. Not as high a ceiling.
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Amobi Okoye. His potential intrigues me, and he seems like he has all the attributes to be a dominating 3-4 end. He’s very smart, and very young, and still has room to grow.
But.. with the number 3 pick in the draft, if we end up with anyone other than the top 3 I listed, (especially Joe Thomas or Alan Branch) I’ll be very irritated. Either that, or a very favorable trade down.
