NFL Draft - April 23rd & 24th

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
1

Well, 9 days until the official start of NFL obsessing season again.

I’m pretty geeked about this draft and I want to hear some thoughts. I know damn well I’ll be holed up on the couch with some unhealthy food watching it unfold.

My initial thoughts:

  1. Braylon Edwards vs. Mike Williams

I’ve got to tell you this one’s been getting a lot of play around here. The Bears need a WR desperately, and all the experts are saying Edwards is going to be there at #4. I’m not so sure. I don’t know that SF, Cleveland and Miami will all pass on WR in favor of QB/RB. More importantly, I’m not convinced that Edwards is the top choice. Edwards is the better combine guy, great 40 time and leaping ability, but he tended to disappear against averae competition in college. Partly because Michigan was a pretty balanced team that played alot of D, but also because he simply didn’t find ways to get into the action. Williams however always stepped up in the clutch. The bigger the game, the bigger he was. Speed seems to be overrated at WR, how many speedsters came out in the pros and never really got off the ground. Not to mention that I have a really bad taste in my mouth about Michigan receivers. I

I’m hoping he gets taking in the top three, removing the temptation for the Bears to take him. And if that doesn’t happen, I hope someone offers to trade up toget him. I’d love to see the Bears get Williams, but I don’t think many teams see him as the best value at #4…he’d be there at #7. I’d take him anyways, but the Bears office doesn’t think that way. They’d rather trade down for $0.80 on the dollar to avoid taking someone out of “position”.

  1. Best Player on the board

Watching all the workouts and reading the reports. I’m feeling that Ronnie Brown is probably the best guy out there. Really weird situation for him though. There’s 3 stud backs out there in free agency who are seriously under-valued. If you’re the Dolphins do you go with a proven guy, sure thing, with a big price tag (but still a bargain due to the thick RB market) and use the draft pick on QB? Or do you use the pick for a RB and fill that hole on the cheap? If it’s me, I grab Alexander or Edge, take advantage of the glut of RBs (3 big FA and 3 stud rookies) and get a guy like Edge relatively cheap, and then use the pick to take either one of the stud WRs (of which there’s a thin FA crop and huge drop off in talent in the draft after the top two) or take whichever of the QBs is still there if you think they are going to be sucessful.

Personally, I’d love them to do this since that might take Edwards off the board and leave Brown to the Bears. Almost forcing them to not fuck up that pick. Brown would be a much bigger asset than Edwards, though I’m not sure what the Bears would have to do to shore up WR after that.

  1. Draft day trades

I think you’ll see a few of these. Some that have big ramifications. All of the top 4 teams are looking to trade down. The parity at the top of the draft means that you can probably get equal talent at #2 as you will at #8, just at a bigger price tag. When this happens teams at the top of the trade tend to force trades. They have a guy like either Williams pegged as their fave, but almost no one thinks they are a top 5. What the harm in taking a guy you love at #3 is when he’d probably go at #7, I can’t say, but this is how they think.

I don’t think the 9ers will be able to move that pick. Though I am beginning to doubt that they’ll take a QB. To rank the likelyhood of events:

  1. They take Edwards
  2. They take Rodgers
  3. They trade down (Washington maybe?)

I think Cleveland will end up moving their pick, perhaps with Tennessee. Since they need help all over the board. They won’t take a WR, but the RB crop is solid. They might even move down farther and get themselves a top DE in the middle of the round.

The Bears also aren’t likely to make a move before the draft. However, if things get loopy at the top and one of those QBs or Ronnie Brown fall to them someone might make a last minute offer they can’t refuse. If things go all chalk, no one will reach up to grab Edwards when M. Williams will be on the board too.

  1. Team to Watch

Dallas. They have two first rounders and a need for WR and CB. I’m guessing Parcells, given the option, would probably rather address the WR positions and get a CB or LB somewhere in the next round. They’ll be a possible canidate to leap up to grab a guy like Edwards. If they stand pat, they could make two real impact picks, a long shot at getting M. Williams at #11 or most likely Merriman, and then filling in with a best player available pick with #20 (Campbell maybe?)

I’d love to see the Bears make a #4 & #36 for #11 & #20 swap.

  1. Biggest Potential Steal

Campbell…if he goes anywhere below #12, that team is getting a bargain. Dallas should pass on him at #11 since the only team who might take him before #20 is St. Louis at #19, and that’s unlikely. No way he goes lower than Baltimore at #22.

If 2 of the top 3 teams pass on QB, Campbell could slide really far. Look for a team like B-more to make a trade up if Smith/Rodgers is still there at #7.

  1. Team(s) with the most to gain

Miami, they have TONS of options. And if they play it smart, they could get good really fast. If they can secure a good RB and QB, one way or another, they’ll make a fast turn around. Having all the cap room and the #2 pick is a dream situation…too bad there isn’t a stronger #2 overall prospect.

San diego, me likey! That trade last year looks like it could pay off in spades here. They’re in position to really get two immediate contributors on defense. A rush and and impact safety/LB.

Should be fun! Any other wannabe draftnicks out there chomping at the bit to prognosticate?

2

I haven’t prognosticated since I was a teenager. I’m pretty sure it’s against the law up here.

Seriously Omni, I have nothing of value to add here. I just wanted to say that I thought the OP was very informative, well-written and interesting to read.

Yew one of dem sportswriters or sumtin’? :slight_smile:

3

I don’t have any deep analysis to add. Though I will say I’m rather underwhelmed with this year’s draft class. Defense looks as deep as any other year, but offense is mostly a meh. At least from what I’ve seen. I’m getting nervous that Thompson isn’t aggressively persuing F/A’s to bring to Green Bay. I just don’t see holding the NFC North if we’re going to build the team around the draft.
Hot damn I can’t wait for football season! The NFL is proof that God loves each and every one of us!

4

I disagree somewhat. I feel that this draft is a little on the light side defensively. Only a couple impact DEs, and they are not considered sure things, Pollack is considered the top guy and he’s a bit of a tweener with reach and speed questions. There isn’t a monster DT coming out, a position which has been taken the top 5 of the last 5 or so drafts. Its pretty deep in the secondary, but the LBs are pretty run of the mill.

Offensively there isn’t a Vick, Moss, Palmer, Manning, or Tomlinson type guy out there. Plenty of solid guys that will produce, but none that are seen as franchise guys. Frankly, I think that’s more perception than anything. This is however, a very deep draft. Especially the RB position. when was the last time you saw 3 RBs predicted to go in the top 6, followed by another 6 that are sure to go in the first 2 rounds. The QB crop is thin, but not as thin as some years, the top three will certainly go in the top half of the first round. Thats more than any year since 99, most didn’t even have three in the first round altogether. There’s only a couple stand out WR/TEs, but the top 2 are really really good.

I’d be willing to wager that this draft class will have more drafted players in the starting lineup at the start of their sophmore year than any in a decade.

5

The top 4 may want to trade down, I’ve heard SF really does, but I don’t know if they’re going to find that many takers. With this class it almost doesn’t make much sense to move up. Even the top guys aren’t utterly thrilling people, why jump to pay them more when you can get a guy almost as good for less.
I’d be surprised (and a little disapointed) if Dallas moves up. They have too many needs to reach for just one. WR & CB yes, but they also really need another good S to pair with Williams, Parcells isn’t crazy about his LB’s and they need a decent pass rusher in the worst way. A lot of places are predicting them to take one of the top DE’s first (usually Merriman, another tweener) then either a WR or S with their 20. I also read that Parcells hates really high picks.
Locally, I’m curious what Gruden’s going to do. If anybody could use moving down it’s them, they have holes all over the place, but I doubt they will. Last I heard they’re hoping one of the Williams will fall to them.
I totally agree about how deep this one is. Like any draft it’s a crap shoot, but there does seem to be a lot of really good players out there.
The top couple of LB’s are supposed to be OK, and Johnson’s supposed to be really good, but he might not last long.

6

As a Dolfan, I’m psyched. As the OP’er noted, Miami needs a QB and a RB (although I think securing a good QB is more crucial). We’ll find out soon enough…

7

The new buzz has Alex Smith climbing up the boards. Supposedly Rodgers is a little too much of a prima donna for some of these teams looking for a QB. smith seems to be the “attitude guy”, the buzz is getting loud enough that people are practically ready to garauntee someone will trade up for him.

This shocks me, and I’m inclined to ignore it as misinformation, but just about every guy who is “in the know” is selling it.

Alternatively, people mysteriously are now ranking Cedric Benson as the #1 RB…balderdash I say. However, the Bears suddenly could fuck this draft up after all.

Supposedly Gruden is really antsy to move up to grab a QB. Interesting, bet San Fran and Miami are listening intently, we’ll see how much they need to offer. Honestly San Fran might trade straight up (not really since that be too much of a mess in negotiating) with them just avoid paying that huge signing bonus.

It’s getting juicier by the day.

8

Who has Benson at the top?

9

Peter King of SI has Benson going a pick before Brown in his latest speculative mock. More generally, people seem to have about the same amount of respect for the top three RBs, the top two QBs, and the top couple of WRs… though incidentally, Len Pasquarelli of ESPN.com has Campbell actually ahead of Rodgers in his QB rankings.

I’m really excited about how many trades and how much general motion we may see in the first round, as well as how many extra picks both this year and in the future the Pats will manage to walk away with this year - particularly when they have much more in the way of needs than they have in the past few years. I think things at the top will depend even moreso than usual on how the individual teams have players ranked, as opposed to the “general consensus” - since the general consensus seems to have a lot less separation than usual.

10

Unlike last year, when every day before the draft was chock full of anticipation and prognostication, this year I’m mostly indifferent to the draft. My Giants have no first rounder, which turned out to be a major plus in free agency not having to earmark money for the 12th pick overall.

I’d like to see the Bills get Heath Miller at TE, but they (like the Giants) gave away their first rounder picking up a QB last year, (Losman, who I wanted for the Giants), but most people think Miller will go at the end of the first round. As such, I’d like to see Miller go to the Jets. They need a real TE, though not nearly as badly as the Billies; the guy behind Becht was a good pass catcher, though for the life of me I can’t remember his name at this point. (And I had him on my woeful FF team.)

September 11th can’t get here fast enough. Go Big Blue! Go Gang Green! Time to topple the divisional powerhouses and have both NY teams win their divisions. Or something.

11

OK, at this point I’m totally convinced that the QBs are going in the top 3. Not sure if it will be SF or Miami taking them, Tampa trading up or someone else trading up, but both top guys are going off the board before the 4th pick. If either one is still there at the 4th pick, expect someone to trade up with the Bears.

So, what are the Bears going to do. If my instinct is correct that the QBs go down early, that’ll basically give the Bears more options and more chances to fuck things up.

Here’s the scenarios I see happening in no particular order.

  1. The scenario at the top I’ve predicted takes place leaving the bears with pretty much anyone they want. Cleveland or Miami probably chooses between Edwards and Benson/Brown/C. Williams. Whoever is highest on their board. That allows the Bears to take whoever is left. If I had to bet, it’d be Ronnie Brown.

  2. The other scenario I hinted at happens, one of the QBs slip to #4 and someone trades up. Hopefully this puts the Bears somewhere in the low teens, giving them a shot at a guy like Mike Williams though I doubt he gets past Minnesota or the third RB off the board.

  3. I’m totally wrong and both Brown and Edwards go off the board early and everyone expects either Rodgers/Smith to slide to them or Campbell to be there as a fall back, negating the value in trading up. this puts teh Bears in a tough spot. They need a WR much more than a RB, but here one of the RBs is probably a better “value” than M. Williams. I’d prefer to see them make a slight reach for Williams and try and negotiate a slightly below scale bonus instead of taking another RB before they know whats going to happen with the incumbents and the free agents.

Whichever scenario plays ut, if it end up with teh Bears getting Mike Williams I’m satisfied, even if most people don’t have him ranked as the #4 player in the draft. He fits, and doesn’t have “head case” written all over him.

One more note, I’m to the point where I’m practically certain that all three QBs will go in the top 10. If the FA RB market wasn’t so flush, I’d be equally sure that the top 3 RBs will go in the top 10 too. And I won’t be a shred surprised to see the top 3 WRs (insert Clayton at #3) go in the top ten too. There isn’t a single defensive player that’s a sure thing, and two top CBs are the only one’s I can envision going higher than 10. Could be a really interesting first hour.

12

Sorry, refering to Smith and Rodgers here…not Campbell when discussing the top three picks.

13

One last thing. If the Bears take Benson at #4, I’m throwing myself off a fucking bridge.

14

According to this report Washington has acquired the 25th overall pick for a 3rd rounder this year and a first and fourth rounder next year.

Awful deal. Just awful, Isiah Thomas must be consulting.

First off, there is NO way that Campbell is still there at 25. Its unlikely under normal cicumstances, it becomes a complete impossibility when everyone knows you want him there. If he’s still on the board at #20, teams will be clamoring to trade up in front of the 'Skins. Wow, looks like the game has really passed ole Gibbs by.

Secondly, the odds of Washington finishing in the top 7 teams next year is virtually nil. That means denver gets a 3 this year, a 4 next year, and if I had to guess, a mid-teen overall pick next year. Ouch.

Is anyone around here actually a Redskin’s fan? Bet those folks in Philly, Dallas and NYC are thrilled.

15

Agreed… that trade is brutal. It’s one thing if you do it on draft day when he’s on the board at that spot, to take a chance on a guy… but to do it in advance, and to let the world know what you’re after? It sounds so stupid that they would almost have to be bluffing, but if they’re bluffing, they paid WAY too much for the pick they got.

16

Wow, that’s an awful trade. A 1st (very likely high-mid, based on recent performance), a 3rd, and a 4th for a late 1st Rounder in a relatively weak draft class? As a Giants fan, I love Dan Snyder. . .

17

That midget is ruining my life! He’s ruining Joe Gibb’s Hall of Fame credentials. He’s ruining my Redskins. This is the type of trade the computer offers you in Madden. It’s insulting, degrading, and he took it! I can only hope that Mark Brunell and Dan Snyder spontaneously combust and leave the team to someone, anyone else. Mark Cuban would be nice.

18

Hate to break it to you, but this trade was probably 95% Joe Gibbs’ decision. Snyder has gotten out and left player decisions to Gibbs. Face it, the guy is a dud.

19

I am. That’s what The Danny does. He mortgages draft picks. Pretty soon he’ll be saying, “Okay, give me your first rounder this year, and I’ll give you my first rounder next year and two years from now.”

A GM! My kingdom for a GM!

20

As a Giants fan, let me just say…
[Nelson]
Ha ha!
[/Nelson]