The time we’ve all been waiting for is nearly here. The unofficial beginning of the 2008 season commences in about 36 hours. This thread is the place to begin speculating on what will happen come Saturday, and to lay out your vision of what your team needs to target for this years draft. Slip on your GM’s blazer for a bit and lets hear what you’ve got.
For starters here’s a few of the big talking points:
Oakland Raiders On The Clock
What do they do? Trade out of the #1 spot? Pick JaMarcus Russell? Pick Calvin Johnson? Pick Brady Quinn?
Personally I think they are going to end up with Calvin Johnson. There’s no way that they take him and stick with the current QB situation but there are plenty of guys available or expected to be available. I think that Daunte Culpepper or Jake Plummer would be a great temporary solution or even Trent Green. They need a guy who can get the ball to that group of WRs and I think a veteran is a better option than starting from scratch with a rookie QB. Plus, Calvin Johnson is too damn good to miss.
Additionally I think that the Raiders need to focus on building an offensive line and if they decide to get a QB in the free agent market they can use those 2nd and 3rd round picks on OL instead of a project QB assuming the bypass Russell.
Of course if there’s some reason that none of those QBs are likely to find their way into a Raiders uni they have to take Russell. You can’t go through another year with Walter and Brooks at the top of your depth chart. How monumentally bad do the Raiders look for passing on Leinart last year? You could argue that that mistake will cost them one of the best WRs in a decade. For as dumb as the Texans were last year the Raiders might end up looking worse in the long run.
How many trades can we expect?
With the Raiders, Lions, Dolphins, Bucs and Redskins all interested in a trading out of their top 10 picks we could have a ton of shuffling in the first hour or so of the day. It’s all going to hinge on how eager people are to get Johnson and then who ends up falling after that shakes out. With only 1 elite RB, 1 elite OT, 1 elite WR and 2 elite QBs on the board teams will be anxious to match position with need. Any of those guys could slide down the board and make teams salivate. Needless to say that a lot of those mock drafts will be moot after the order reshuffles.
How bad will the Browns and Lions screw this up?
My prediction? Very, very badly.
I’m especially interested in seeing what the Bears will do. Ideally I’d like them to move up and get an impact player, but that’s probably not in the cards. They have a history of trading down to stockpile picks and they might just do that again here. My ideal first pick is either a LB or a RB. Realistically it should be the best player available so I hope that it jibes with a position of need, but if someone at another position falls you have to take him regardless of supposed needs.
With that early second round pick I would love to see us take Kenny Irons. He has the speed that Thomas Jones lacked and paired with Benson could give us a stellar one-two punch. The fact that I’m not sold on Benson certainly makes adding a fallback plan feel like a good idea.
I’m sure I could ramble on and on about this so I’ll stop here and open it up to the rest of the junkies.
There will be a trade up into the top 4 to get Calvin Johnson. It will be the only trade in the top 10.
Michael Turner, Randy Moss or both will get traded.
Lance Briggs will not.
Adrian Peterson will drop to 10 or 12.
Bears take a RB, but not in the first round.
Matt Millen will do something stupid (also, the sun will rise).
For my team: I want and expect the Eagles to take the best available DB in the first round. I’m hoping Reggie Nelson drops, but he won’t.
In the second round, I’m really really REALLY hoping for Brian Leonard, but the Eagles won’t take him even if he does drop, which he won’t. They’ll take a DB or a DE.
What made you exclude the Browns from that list? It’s very likely the draft’s first two picks will be Russel and Johnson, in which case the Browns will very much want to trade down as the remaining players on their draft board can be had a few picks down. There’s a very good chance there won’t be a trade, as trades are pretty rare - but the Browns definitely are open to trading down - probably moreso than the Bucs and Dolphns.
Out of curiosity, why is this? The Browns are a very bad football team - their coaching is (well, was, maybe - Mo Carthon is gone) bottom 3 in the league. The talent base is not good, but it’s mostly coaching holding the team back.
Phil Savage, the general manager since 2005, has actually done a good job. His first top 3 pick, Braylon Edwards, still appears to be the best pick in the top ten, if not the draft. The only arguably better player is Merriman, but no one was seriously considering a DE/LB tweener making a position change as a #3 pick. And who knows if he’ll lose some of his edge now that he’s going to be under scrutiny…
Second round pick Brodney Pool is a solid starter and getting better. Third round pick Charlie Frye… well… he seemed like a good pick at the time.
In 2006, surprise first round pick Kamerion Wimbley had an excellent rookie season that no one heard about because he played for a crappy team. He deserved serious consideration for defensive rookie of the year. A pick that wasn’t on anyone’s radar, but quite possibly the best defender picked in the first round.
Second round pick D’Qwell Jackson so far has been a dissapointment - he might not have the size to play 3-4 eagle/mike. But maybe a year of NFL gym time will help. I’m willing to be patient, because Savage seems to know linebacker talent. (Stabbin’ Ray, Boulware, Adalius Thomas, Bart Scott, etc.)
Third round pick Travis Wilson fell victim to coach catfish’s policy on not playing offensive rookies until they’re in their 5th year in the league.
By the way, fourth round pick Leon Williams (yeah, who?) is a name you’re going to know in a year or two. He saw the field a lot later in the year, and looked really, really good. He played at ILB, but there was some talk of having him take over Paycheck McGinest’s spot on the outside (although that seems less likely having signed a 3-4 OLB in free agency). Unfortunately, I think there’s a good chance that two of our best three linebackers (Leon Williams, Chaun Thompson) will spend a significant part of the year on the bench.
Even the last Butch Davis draft wasn’t terrible. Kellen Winslow was a player, and still did a lot on one knee. Unfortunately, I think he’s going to be out of football not too long in the future. He couldn’t practice all year, and there were some rumors floating around that he moved to a one story house to avoid climbing stairs…
Sean Jones, the second round pick, is a top 10 safety in this league, maybe even top 5. You’ve never heard of him, probably, because he’s a good player in a non-sexy position on a bad team.
Sounds like homerism on my part, but I’d like to think I’m realistic about my team.
We have no talent at all on the defensive line. We’re adequate (good, if LeChuck comes back at anywhere near his former strength) on the offensive line. Our starting inside linebackers suck, our starting LOLB/elephant (McGinest) sucks, our quarterbacking situation is dire, running back (8-ball Jamal) is a big question mark. Our #1 corner, Leigh Bodden, had an absolutely dominant 2005 (if I recall correctly, since Chad Johnson started doing his “Who covered #85?” lists, Leigh Bodden is the only corner to ever get a “yes” check. Maybe Champ Bailey did too, though), but the other corner spots are street free agent types. In 2006, he had nagging injuries all year that kept his performance down.
If he returns to form, I honestly think that he, Wimbley, and Sean Jones are all top 10 at their positions in the NFL. The defense still sucks anyway, due to a lack of defensive linemen, weak cornerbacking depth, and a badly designed defensive strategy that keeps them performing at a lower level than they could.
Anyway - it’s completely unfair to lump Phil Savage in with Millen/the Lions, because he’s done very well in the draft. Because we have the worst coach of Cleveland Browns history - and I’m including Butch Davis here - at the helm, the team sucks in spite of increasing talent levels.
Wow, I really got going on a rant there, didn’t I?
Anyway, I know my Browns football, despite it being nothing but a perpetual kick in the nuts. I watch every play 5+ times (tivo instant replay is almost perfect for this), analyze line play and technique and all that sort of detail, read up about different coaching methodologies, blocking techniques, etc., keep up with all the news, and all that stuff, so I consider myself very well informed.
And… um… anyway, to talk about the actual subject of the thread…
I, like everyone else, expect Russel or Johnson to go number one. There are rumors floating around that Kiffen is in love with Quinn, and that they already made a lowball contract offer to him, but I don’t think that’s going to turn into anything.
Trent Green is going to Miami or nowhere, so I’m not sure what Oakland would do at QB if they don’t take Russell. Culpepper is the most likely candidate.
If Oakland took JR, Detroit’s best move, aside from a trade down, would be to draft CJ. But they can’t. Fans would be outraged. People everywhere would laugh at them. “Three WRs in 4 years!” - but two of those guys are busts, and CJ is the best player available. So, in order to not look stupid, Detroit actually has to do the stupid thing and pass on CJ. I see a TB/Detroit trade as being fairly likely - TB gets CJ, and Detroit drafts Gaines Adams at #4.
As much as I know my team, I’m totally baffled on their draft intentions. People have the impression that Phil Savage is in love with Jamarcus Russel and hopes that he drops. Mostly based on the fact that Savage apparently knew Russel since he was a boy - Phil Savage had something to do with a football camp that Russel attended as a teenager.
Then people try to play up the Weiss/Quinn/Crennel connection.
I think people just try to make these connections more meaningful than they actually are, to have something to talk about, I guess.
If CJ is here, that most likely means that Russell is gone, and Phil is fully into the BPA camp. He’ll draft him - and either gouge TB or Atlanta for picks in a trade down, or just keep him. Receiver isn’t a dire need for the Browns, but CJ is probably the best WR prospect EVER, and how could you possibly pass that up?
I could see it very likely that if a TB-Det trade doesn’t go down, a TB-Cleveland trade does. If the Browns picked up TB’s 2nd, and then drafted Peterson #4, I’d be very happy.
The recent news about Peterson’s injuries is worrisome. A month or two ago, I was fully in the Peterson camp. Then I started to waver when I came to realize how good CJ is. And then I almost started to want Russell, when I learned more about him.
People like to create false dichotomies, and archetypes, and stereotypes. If Quinn is the less physically talented, but cerebral QB - that must mean that Russell is the big dumb athlete, right? He must be lazy, not a student of the game, only gets by on his athleticism, etc. Well, that’s the popular perception, because people like to see things in terms like that. Racism could also play a role there. But Russel is considered by his coaches to be a good student of the game, and very dedicated. His completion percentage was high as well as his yards per attempt, indicating that he was mentally into the game too. He does have a high bust potential, I admit - he shot into the scene late, he’s had questionable games against good teams, and there are a lot of questions, but it’s hard not to fall in love with his potential, and the Browns are desperately in need of good quarterbacking more than anything else.
Joe Thomas - this is the popular pick among Browns fans, possibly only second to Peterson. The Browns have had a crappy line for long enough that the fans have overcompensated and are convinced that the offense can’t possibly be any good until a top 5 pick is starting at LT. And that you don’t need good “skill” players, only suckers are seduced by that, what you really need is a top 5 lineman to solve all of your ills… and then suddenly your mediocre quarterback will turn into Peyton Manning.
And they seem to think the act of drafting an LT in the top 5 is going to transform him into Ogden or Pace. But Joe Thomas isn’t in the same league as Ogden or Pace, or probably even Walter Jones. He benefits from being the best of a weak tackle class, and I don’t consider him to be elite. To be fair, I only saw one game - his bowl game - but they say you can spot an elite tackle just by watching a series of his plays. I broke down his play and wrote up a report on a Browns message board that I wish I’d saved, as it was very detailed, but it’s lost now.
Short version: He’s a quick athlete with excellent technique and footwork, but questionable power and heart. He seemed to do the bare minimum he could on any given play. If he knocked his man down, out of the play - but another nearby player was chasing down his QB, he didn’t try to help, he just stood there and watched his QB get sacked. He seemed to think he was just there to neutralize one defender on any given play, and once that was taken care of, he was done. Very worrisome attitude.
He also got almost no push whatsoever in the running game. Even though they ran an unbalanced line with him to the strongside (TE-LG-C-RG-RT-LT), they never ran behind him. They’d run up the gut, and then he never actually drove anyone off the ball - he’d usually seal off the outside linebacker from shooting into the backfield, and that was it. It was almost like he was playing pass protection in the run game.
So he’s completely one sided. He’s an excellent technician with good feet, and he’ll make a fine pass blocker. But that’s all he can do, and he has questionable heart, and I want nothing to do with him at #3. I’m not at all opposed to drafting tackles high - I wanted Gallery (shows what I know, right?) - but nothing I saw from Thomas tells me he deserves a top 5 selection, or that he should qualify as an elite talent. I’d be okay with drafting him 15th, or something.
Edit: I don’t mean to rain on your parade, Shodan. I think Thomas will be a solid 10 year starter for someone. I just need a lineman to totally blow me away to justify a top 5 pick, and he hasn’t. I agree that he’s probably going to Arizona, and they can certainly use him.
Quinn I can’t manage to have strong feelings on. I’m really not sure what to make of him.
So my draft board looks something like this:
1a) Adrian Peterson
Elite talent, injury concerns. Previous to the recent news, I didn’t give much concern to his injuries. Ankle, shoulder, fluke collarbone break - nothing that’s going to hurt his career, all common stuff except for the collarbone. Not like he tore his knee up or something. Now, though, if he might need surgery to put a plate in his collarbone, I’m a little iffier. Apparently NFL teams have known this since the combine though, so this recent revelation shouldn’t affect draft boards.
1b) Calvin Johnson. I can’t even manage to call him “2)” because he’s too good. I think that Peterson can be an elite talent - he’s not as good a prospect as Johnson, but he’s just a bit behind in potential. But CJ has no question marks at all - when is the last time you could say that about a draft prospect? Reggie Bush, as hyped as he was, always had doubters about his size and running style translating to the NFL. Calvin Johnson essentially has it all - size, speed, hands, work ethic, good citizenship. I’m very tempted to put him at the top of my list.
Peterson gets slightly ahead because I think an elite RB can have more impact than an elite WR, and the Browns are more in need of a long term solution at RB. I expect big things from Braylon Edwards this year if we have any sort of decent quarterbacking. 1200/10 or better. Year three is that lights on time for WRs, and he was hampered last year by an injury that now has fully recovered.
Jamarcus Russel.
Quarterback is the team’s biggest need, and this guy can be really, really good. He’s not another Kyle Boller (I sucked in college, but look, I can decapitate a man with this football!) in that he has good productivity in college to go with his physical skills. High bust potential, but a very high ceiling.
Brady Quinn
Biggest need thing, most NFL ready, etc. Some people like to paint him as a very low likeliness to bust, but he’s got some questions to him. Not as high a ceiling.
Amobi Okoye. His potential intrigues me, and he seems like he has all the attributes to be a dominating 3-4 end. He’s very smart, and very young, and still has room to grow.
But… with the number 3 pick in the draft, if we end up with anyone other than the top 3 I listed, (especially Joe Thomas or Alan Branch) I’ll be very irritated. Either that, or a very favorable trade down.
If Quinn for sure falls to 6, the Redskins will trade out & there are so many permutations that it becomes impossible to guess. This is a possible scenerio if Peterson falls to 6 as well - but I am not as “for sure” there will be partners.
If not, my WAG is the Redskins will take Okoye or Landry depending on which is available. (Adams and Anderson are posssibilities as well)
I think the Raiders are gonna pick Russell,maybe Quinn.
The Detroit Lie-Downs might take Calvin Johnson since they seem hell-bent on trying to get a good WR(see last 3 or 4 drafts) but,last I read, they were leaning towards a DL,can’t remember who. Way to go Millen . :smack:
Browns get the other QB(Russell or Quinn).
Personally,I think Adrian Peterson would be the smart pick for #1.
SenorBeef, certainly the Browns have found some good players in the draft overall, every team, even the Tice-led Vikings and Millen-led Lions, found a couple nuts. But it’s hard to argue that they haven’t had some truly awful luck with top-6 picks.
This column details it more succinctly than I would.
To be fair it’s not entirely their fault, since much of the problem has been injuries. However for how good Edwards and Winslow could be, they haven’t been yet due to injuries and character issues.
To use your argument, the Lions have landed Shaun Rogers, Roy Williams, Jeff Backus, Ernie Sims and Domanic Raiola under Millen, a roster that stands up pretty favorably to the Browns successes. Maybe Lions fans should be asking why I included them with the Browns!
I can see them drafting Peterson and him getting hurt 2 of his first 3 seasons already.
I’m sorry, but you could not be further from the truth. Joe Thomas is comparable to Ogden and Pace. He and Calvin Johnson are considered the two locks of the draft. Last season he gave up one sack and one qb pressure, he is quick and has excellent technique. He was athletic enough to play DE and TE. This guy has Pro Bowl written all over hiim.
I think the way the draft should go is the Raiders should trade first round picks with TB, since the Bucsa are in love with Calvin Johnson. So then the Bucs take Johnson with the first pick. I think then the Lions should take Thomas with the second. The Browns then pick JaMarcus Russel and the Raiders at 4 then select Brady Quinnn who will fit in much much better to their West Coast offence and is more ready to play now having come out of a pro style offense and two season with Chharlie Weis.
There was an interesting piece in the Boston Globe the other day suggesting that the teams that pick in the top ten are actually at a disadvantage. The argument had to do with the amount of money top-ten picks gobble up, as opposed to guys in the bottom half of the first round. The contention is that picking up a top-ten guy means you lose some financial flexibility to, hypothetically, pick up the free agents who would complement your top-ten guy and make him great.
To the extent that the draft is a crapshoot, you’re taking a risk at numbers one through ten, just as you are in the bottom half of the round. But in the bottom half, your risks are so much less expensive. And certainly, if you look at a team like the Patriots, they’ve never seemed to suffer much in recent years (either or on the field or in the success of their drafts), from drafting in the 20-something spot year after year.
Also, for what it’s worth, I think Oakland will take JaMarcus Russell. That’s the only prediction I care to make.
(To be fair, the regime that did that, twice, is gone now)
They pick at 7, which is a pretty crappy place. They really need a WR or a DE (But we would gladly keep Joe Thomas close to home if he fell to us). Most Mock drafts have us taking Adrian Peterson or Landry. We are okay at RB and Safety. But at 7, it’s doubtful the talent at the position we need will be there. We’ll probably trade down, but won’t get much for it.
The Lions should draft Calvin Johnson. He’s the best pick in this draft and a steal at #2. Millen doesn’t have the balls to pull the trigger. He’ll take Gaines Adams (jog your memory, MadTheSwine?). Gaines Adams is too high at number two and has bust written all over him. He’s wretched against the run.
Unless something strange happens, I expect my 49ers to pick a defensive lineman at 11 (Adam, Alan, or Amobi), but also trade for a late-first-round pick to get a receiver, hopefully Robert Meachem.
Whaaa? Braylon Edwards has had a decent showing as a young reciever, with 93 catches for about 1400 yards and 9 TDs in two years, but come on. Pro-Bowler Merriman has 27 sacks and 6 forced fumbles. Pro-Bowler DeMarcus Ware has 19.5 sacks and 8 forced fumbles. Cadillac Williams has just shy of 2000 rushing yards to go with his 7 TDs. Heck, converted QB Matt Jones has as many TDs and over 1000 yards recieveing while Mark Clayton of the Ravens has more catches and yardage than Edwards with one less TD. That’s not even bringing up the steals that were Pro-Bowler Frank Gore and Marion Barber. Best pick in the draft…
I’m so of mixed minds about what my Cowboys should do. I think unless Alan Branch or some top-10 guy does a free fall they should just trade down and pick up a first for next year. It works out good the last time they did that.
I think the dream scenario is that Gaines Adams slides to them, which I think is a pretty strong possibility depending on what the Lions do. If the Lions take CJ or a QB I expect the Browns, Bucs and Cardinals to go offense. The Redskins are a wildcard but it seems reasonable that it’s a 50-50 chance that whoever makes that pick will be targeting one of the big offensive guys who slipped. Miami is a good candidate to move up. Adams has taken a few hits in his rankings and might not warrant at top 5 pick. As a fall back Amobi Okoye is a hell of an option too. I agree that Peterson and Landry make little sense to me, though Peterson would should be the best player available if he fell to 7.
All things being equal I’d wager the Wikes do end up with a DE. Getting a slipping Brady Quinn would be a nice fit too.
Also, look at the draft board. There’s nary a defensive player in the top 8. There doesn’t seem to be an amazing defensive player in this year’s draft (of course, one WILL emerge with hindsight) so if you have an early pick, you take offense. You take what the draft gives you.
True. If you want to imply that the Browns as an entity are somehow cursed, or unlucky, then I guess you can make that point. But if you’re trying to say that they, as an institution, make bad decisions - I think you have to seperate pre-2005 and post-2005 since the front office was completely redone. The current front office can’t be held responsible for the bad drafts that they had nothing to do with - and if you look at the last two years, the drafts have been pretty good.
In case you didn’t know, he tore his ACL in his rookie season. He was starting to pick up, and even had 86 yards and 2 TDs in that game before he tore his knee.
If you projected the stats of his last four games over an entire season - that’s when he became a real part of the offense, he didn’t even start until November - over an entire season, he’d have 1128 yards, 8 TDs, that’s including the game cut short in which he was dominant until the knee injury.
That’s with Charlie Frye, who struggles to put zip on 5 yard passes, stares down receivers, and always throws way after the cut, throwing to him.
He wasn’t expected back until October in 2006, but worked his ass off to be ready by week 1. But he wasn’t 100%, and probably wasn’t till the end of the season, played for a bottom 3 offense in the NFL, with a bottom 3 RB, and a bottom 3 QB, and still racked up 884/6.
Their third year is traditionally considered the year that most WRs adjust and finally get up to NFL game speed and start performing at their best. Additionally, I don’t think the Cleveland Browns are going to be starting Charlie Frye this year, unless they want part of the fan base to commit suicide and part to storm the castle with torches.
So, yeah, 1200/10 or better. Remember this thread at the end of the year so you can make fun of me if I’m wrong
Pass rusher is an easier transition to make to the NFL than WR. Instant-success WRs like Anquan Boldin or Andre Johnson are the exception. Merriman also might’ve accomplished this on steroids.
I should say the best pick the Browns could’ve made, really. I mean - you could say that Tom Brady was the best pick in the 2000 draft, but no one is criticizing him not being taken #1 overall, because he simply wasn’t on anyone’s radar and wasn’t expected to be a top pick.
Braylon Edwards is clearly better than the rest of the top 10 - Benson, Cadillac Williams, Pac-Man, Williamson, Rolle, Rogers, Mike Williams. It’s extremely unlikely that any team would’ve picked a DE/OLB convert in the top 3.
Mark Clayton and Matt Jones are not as good as Edwards - you’re counting their full stats against Edwards where he was injured and recovering. Matt Jones may some day be because he’s such a freak.
