Is McCain's campaign unraveling?

After yesterday’s fiasco with McCain’s Texas fundraiser, and as the numbers continue to come in from polling, it seems to me that his campaign is self-destructing. For those who aren’t aware, McCain has accepted more than $300,000 raised by an oil magnate named Clayton Williams. Williams is infamous for having said that rape is like bad weather, that women should just lie back and enjoy the experience. He also compared Texas Governor Ann Richards to a cow, saying during his campaign against her that he would “head her and hoof her and drag her through the dirt”. McCain refuses to give back the money (or give it to charity as his opponent did with Reznik’s money) ostensibly because the donations Williams gathered were for McCain, not Williams.

It also surfaced yesterday that one of McCain’s principle Veep candidates, Gov. Bobby Jindal, participated in an exorcism that he wrote about in 1994 for New Oxford Review. According to Jindal, supernatural forces were pushing down on his chest while he prayed on behalf of a possessed woman named Susan. He says he was afraid her demon would leave her and possess him, so he chickened out and stopped praying. But the exorcism as a whole was a success, he said, and he believed that as an added bonus, the procedure cured her cancer.

Daily tracking polls are consistently showing McCain trailing, not just overall but among key groups. And the margins appear to be widening, especially among women and minorities. Representative Rosa DeLauro said yesterday that a full-blown campaign is being organized to educate women about McCain and his positions. What effect this could have on the vote might have come to light yesterday, when NARAL released an interesting poll. Asking women simply which candidate they prefered, the poll showed McCain trailing by only 2 points. But when the question was asked again after reading the candidates’ positions on key issues, McCain fell by 5 points, and his opponent increased by 6. That same poll shows McCain losing support among both Independent and Republican women in the key states of Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

It’s too early yet to know what effect some of McCain’s positions might have, like his opposition to Habeas Corpus (the right of people to be heard by the judiciary when they are detained), that could also affect women, who generally oppose war and support human rights. But as his opponent establishes beachheads in all 50 states and continues to build momentum while controlling the news cycle, McCain seems stuck in the mud. His speeches in his small town hall meetings have devolved into white noise, as he can do no better than beg for media attention and take random cat-swipes at his rival.

But even given all these bad signs, McCain’s campaign is not without hope. MSNBC said that there are rumors that McCain supporters are in the process of launching an all out e-mail war on Michelle Obama, apparently hoping that they can bring down the Democrat by attacking his family. McCain seems to have paved the way for that effort by dismissing calls for civility last week, claiming that he cannot police every 527 group out there — groups that he helped create with his campaign finance reform. But such an aggressive move could backfire, and even hurt McCain’s vaunted support among white men, who admire men who defend their wives and might be put off if the attacks become too severe or random.

Issues for debate: (1) Will McCain’s attempt to hit on Hillary’s women ultimately fail? (2) Is he out of touch on issues like civil rights and liberties? and (3) Would his campaign benefit from the purchase of a modem so it can Google for information on people like Clayton Williams?

It does seem to me that his rival is campaigning circles around him. McCain appears to be coming across as quite the phoney with respect to women and their issues. And he seems to be surrounded by incompetent staff. I’d love to hear the points of view from his supporters on these matters.

Frankly, I’m just waiting for the first public McVolcanic eruption. McCain’s temper is legendary, and I can’t imagine that a hotly contested presidential campaign, especially in an election year when the Republicans are under pressure and public opinion is turning against them, won’t engender a public release of that temper. He’s already had a couple of temblors in the primary (“Thanks for the question, you little jerk! You’re drafted!”). I really can’t wait for Mount Grampy to blow its top…

I doubt I’ll vote for McCain, but both of the issues mentioned at the beginning of the OP seem pretty minor. Some guy who made a (pretty disgusting) off color joke 18 years ago gave McCain money and someone who is occasionally mentioned as a possible McCain VP pick participated in a rather hokey religious ceremony.

Agree McCain is in increasing trouble in the polls, but then his GOP primary campaign was coming off the rails too until a few weeks before he won.

Clayton Williams made his comment in 1990. I think eighteen years might be enough time to live down a bad joke.

I dunno.

Is Obama’s unraveling because the head of his VP vetting-team resigned? Maybe he oughtta vet his vetters, no?

Didn’t McCain’s campaign unravel last summer, too?

It must be a seasonal thing.

It’s like Cheney’s heart attacks, they’re good luck a few months before an election.

Then he’'l find out something about one of the people he hires to vet the vetters and he’ll have to start vetting the vetter vetters.

This guilt by association stuff is just running amok right now. Clayton Williams does not reflect on McCain any more than some ex-hippie neighbor reflects on Barack Obama. All that stuff is ridiculous and I think it’s reached a point of diminishing returns. I don’t fault McCain for that, in particular, but it doesn’t help him get any momentum and he does appear to be having trouble getting up any steam. His base is not excited, he’s getting less than full-throated endorsements from other elected Republicans, his fundraising is down, and all those Hillary voters don’t appear to be going over to him in droves after all.

The Jindal thing, while hilarious, will probably have minimal to no damage since it came out before McCain might have tapped him as Veep (I guess that’s what veters are for).

I will say that if Obama had a fundraiser who made made a rape joke like that (no matter how long ago), Sean Hannity would lead with it every day for a week.

Can’t argue with that.

What if Obama had a fund raiser who was convicted of fraud? Would Hannity lead with that?

Regards,
Shodan

Clayton Williams is, and always has been, an utter nitwit. It is a peculiarity of Texas politics that the voters have affectionate disdain for nitwits. They expect it, they get it, and the cycle goes merrily along. I am a great admirer of the late Ann Richards, but it is entirely possible that Claytie Williams was the only Republican she could have beaten in the Governor’s race, he was so stupid that he actually embarassed the “good ol’ boy” voters, and that takes a whole heap of stupid.

But he is a known commodity, anybody who stands next to him had best take along a pistol, so he can be shot before he reaches the microphone. But McCain was stuck, he desperately needs the support of Texas conservatives (who are to money what Wahabbism is to Islam), and he needs their money.

My best guess is that they gambled that nobody outside of Texas has any idea who the blue fuck Clayton Williams is, and maybe they could swoop in, grab off the cash and make a dash for the border before the trajectory of the shit intersected the locus of the fan. They lost, but they didn’t have much choice anyway. There are knuckle-walking troglodyte Pubbies in every state, but nowhere are they so numerous, so rich, and so powerful as in Texas.

But brothers and sisters, pals and gals, change is coming, even to Texas. And when it does, the Pillars of Heaven will shake.

It falls on me to point out that the current Democratic candidate for the Senate in Minnesota faced some opposition at the state convention - and some of this came about because of his own rape jokes.

I haven’t seen a lot of coverage of this aside from local stuff, so it seems that most people just don’t give a crap.

Yep, and he did (though “fundraiser” is kind of an exaggeration for Rezko).

Well, yeah, Claytie Williams and Al Franken, why, they’re like two peas in a pod! But, you know, Moto, somebody’s just bound to nag you for a cite on that, maybe you ought to get it out there now, you know, pre-emptive like.

Thank goodness you took up that burden for us, as it did indeed fall to you.

Speaking as someone living in MN, the state in question, it has indeed gotten quite a bit of coverage, including some very nice, in-depth discussion on MPR.

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/06/17/gop-convention-button-asks-if-obama-is-presidentwill-we-still-call-it-the-white-house/

For those of you blessedly ignorant of what passes for politics in the Lone Star state, this link for a button being sold at a GOP gathering in Texas, to witless: “If Obama is President, will we still call it the White House?”

I swear, I am not making this up.

Let me do the honors:

Cite, Moto? :smiley:

Cite.

BTW, here’s an example. As you’ll see, Franken’s joke about rape was as he and other writers were discussing ideas for a Saturday Night Live sketch, and as we all know, that show is politically correct and sensitive at all times.

That said, I agree with Dio that his guilt by association stuff is running amok. I don’t give it credence against any of the candidates; I just don’t see how it matters.

Not that I care about Williams, but the Franken joke had a much different context. Franken and some SNL writers were spitballing jokes for a 60 Minutes sketch. the intention was to lampoon Andy Rooney by having him make outrageous claims and Franken suggested a joke about Rooney claiming to have given roofies to Leslie Stahl. When you read the article, you can see it’s writers throwing things out there randomly and trying to work towards something useable for a sketch. Franken was saying something about how maybe Rooney claims he takes her in the closet and papes her, then changes it to “maybe he takes pictures of her,” then Norm Macdonald suggests that he should be raping one of the men on the show instead (funnier already) and on it goes. It wasn’t a good joke (and it wasn’t used on the show), but it was part of a barrage of things which were getting thrown out. It was part of a process of finding a joke, not the end result (and, as I said, the idea was that it would sound shocking and absurd coming from Andy Rooney, not that ha ha, rape is funny).