Space travel seems similar to time travel. It has been argued that if time travel will eventually be possible, we’d be seeing visitors from the future. Similarly, it seems as though if space travel and exploration to significant portions of the universe were possible we would be seeing evidence of that: space aliens or contact or some sort.
Since we don’t see any evidence of it (outside some of the claims of some), is it because:
They don’t exist (seems unlikely, but possible)
There hasn’t been enough time to develop the technology
Given another 1,000,000,000 years and the exponential rate of technological development (and the assumption the physical limits as we now understand them can be overcome), surely humans would develop a way to reach out into the universe in a significant way. Since no other life forms have come to us, and assuming they have had a 1,000,000,000 year head start on us, this leads to:
The limits of space travel (size of universe/complexity of the travel)
Space is mind boggling huge. Huge in ways we can hardly imagine. Finding a planet with intelligent life in such vastness is akin to finding the right grain of sand in the world’s beaches. We haven’t explored much of our own oceans, let alone tried to send someone to Mars. The obstacles to space travel are immense. But if it is possible to overcome these things eventually, I’m back to argument 2. This leads me to believe that this is the answer. It just will never, ever be possible. We will forever be alone in the universe.
ET doesn’t call because he doesn’t exist, but we won’t be alone because we have each other. And in any case, fairly soon we’ll begin to split into other races and different beings so there will be plenty others.
This is known as the Fermi paradox. The crux of it is that, given an intelligent species somewhere in a galaxy, it should only take a few million years (an eyeblink, compared to the time it takes for such a species to evolve) for that species to completely fill the galaxy. And once a species gets to the point where it’s spreading to multiple star systems (even just the very nearby ones), extinction should be nearly impossible. But we’ve never met any of them.
This leads to several possible conclusions:
1: We’re alone in our galaxy. This pretty much requires stretching every term of the Drake equation to the limits of plausibility.
2: Intelligent species tend to go extinct before they develop the capability for interstellar travel. Maybe, but we’ve made it this far, and we’re not really all that far from interstellar capability.
3: Other intelligent species are arising, but we just happen to be the first. This seems unlikely at first glance, but if intelligent species tend to drive almost-intelligent species extinct, then there might be an anthropic bias at work here.
4: Other intelligent species are out there and can reach us, but for reasons of their own choose not to. Some variant of the Prime Directive, perhaps? But while the Prime Directive makes for good stories, I’m not sure there’s any reason to expect that it’d be actually implemented.
Perhaps other intelligent species simply choose not to engage in exploration of space for whatever reason. After all there are lots of humans who think it’s a complete waste. Perhaps when a species gets to a certain stage of advancement they turn more inward (starting off by becoming obsessed with message board technology and eventually going to a completely virtual world :)). Maybe as certain technologies become available (like nano-tech) they don’t NEED to explore anymore and are content to simply exist on their home world, since all their material needs would be met and at least in theory they’d have control of their environment. Or maybe aliens are sufficiently different to humans that exploration isn’t a driving force in their cultures…maybe it’s even against their core beliefs or something. Perhaps to many species intelligence doesn’t translate to technology…and maybe technology itself is shunned.
Or…we could be all alone in the universe at least wrt intelligent life. I think we should push OUR technology to go forth and find out! Well, that and to make sure that I live for a few hundred more years so I can perhaps find out…
Maybe ET has called us but we were having a bath and didn’t pick up the phone.
Heard on CBC radio today that some new planets have been observed in the Pegasus constellation. (Could be wrong about the Pegasus part, was trying to stop the boys from killing in each other in the back seat at the time.) They’re gas giants, bigger and also more massive than Jupiter.
I think we’ll find an earth like planet in my lifetime. I too was reading a bit about the first visuals of an extra-solar planet (on CNN I think) and was thinking ‘Wow!’.
Or, they just don’t care.
Not every species would be interested in otherworldly forms of life, much less intelligences.
They’re just in it for the minerals. <shrug>
Or perhaps there are intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarding this earth with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drawing their plans against us.
Well, they could be alien centaurs who go about killing all intelligent races and the rubble between the Earth and Mars may be the remnant of a 2nd Imperium military base that was destroyed in the last incursion (which happened 68 million years ago…coincidence?)…and the moon COULD be a hidden 3rd Imperium star ship in disguise…
For beings near the center of our galaxy, I imagine there being such a constant cacophony and barrage of naturally occuring radio waves that the prospect of determining and using individual frequencies for communication would be, at the very least, impractical. If they’re using another means of distance communication, such as, say, a locally scarce charged particle, or isotope, they may simply be unaware we’re here, even if they are sufficiently technologically advanced. Our ships may be passing each other in the night, completely blind and deaf to each others’ attempts at contact or detection.
I believe it highly improbable that we’re alone in our own galaxy, much less the entire universe. I believe it almost as highly improbable that there will be direct contact with an intelligent extra-terrestrial life form in this century.
Space is a big place. Could be the Vorlons are out there, but they haven’t found us yet, same as we haven’t found them. We don’t have a really noticiable footprint beyond our own solar system, and are just beginning to be able to detect other solar systems. If they have similar technology, hooking up for even mutual dectection seems…unlikely in the forseeable future.
True… but how far are we from light-speed interstellar capability? Sure, we can fly to Mars–but it’ll take us the better part of a year. In order to get anywhere serious–into deep space–it seems like we need the equivalent of a warp drive.
I’m honestly curious: how far are we from that technology?