Who will run for the 2012 presidency?

[Enderw24]

Damnit. I'm not getting the hang of this forum at all.

[Fenris]

I don't think the Repubs are showing their hand yet--Certainly Obama will run again...it'll be interesting to see if Hillary challenges him (I kinda think she might).

[Airman Doors, USAF]

If Hillary does challenge him, what will be the basis of her challenge? It can't be foreign policy, because that's as much her purview as it is his.

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by Fenris

I don't think the Repubs are showing their hand yet--Certainly Obama will run again...it'll be interesting to see if Hillary challenges him (I kinda think she might).

Definitely not going to happen. There's just no way: this isn't done, and it would cause a large conflict of interest with her current job, potentially leaving her with nothing.

I think the major Republican candidates are obvious by this point. I do wonder if Jim DeMint is going to be tempted to run.

[racer72]

The Republicans have a kiosk at a local mall to promote their 2010 candidates. I noticed a stack of "Palin 2012" bumper stickers among the other propaganda.

[Lynn Bodoni]

Obama will run again, unless he's incapacitated somehow. If he is out of the race for some reason, Hillary will graciously allow herself to be nominated.

Palin will probably run, if she isn't distracted by something shiny. I don't know who else the Republicans will want. Possibly one or both of the Pauls.

[Gyrate]

I think that the Republican field won't settle until after the 2010 election, if only because it will provide a better gauge of what sort of candidate the American people are minded to put into office at the moment. If those extreme right candidates that have knocked out their more moderate brethren in the primaries subsequently get trounced in the general election, the GOP will take a much more circumspect approach to choosing their 2012 Presidential candidate and will look for someone who can take a softer line where needed (maybe Romney, although personally I think he's lost his mojo).

If the extreme right-wingers do well, however, it'll be Palin 2012, possibly with Pawlenty as Veep.

[Paul in Qatar]

Originally Posted by Lynn Bodoni

Possibly one or both of the Pauls.

I am hoping for RuPaul.

[BrainGlutton]

Romney, maybe. Anyone further to the right than that has no hope of winning.

[TriPolar]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Romney, maybe. Anyone further to the right than that has no hope of winning.

I think you're right. Romney looks like a centrist in the current Republican Party. He'll be the most acceptable across the board, seen as a Party man, and not offensive to most, and as a candidate that non-Republicans can vote for.

I doubt Sarah Palin will make a serious run for office. If she were to get nominated somehow, that would make Obama a sure bet to get re-elected.

[BobLibDem]

Romney will get nominated because it's his turn and that's how the GOP does things. Obama will run and win.

Palin will not run because she has no interest whatsoever in learning enough about the issues to talk about them intelligently. Besides, her only interest in life is making Sarah wealthy.

[Ludovic]

Democrats, at this point, are probably hoping Palin will run. I'd be salivating over running actual footage of her chanting "Drill, Baby, Drill!" It's one thing to oppose a policy, another when you have a pre-made propaganda ad handed to you on a platter.

[RTFirefly]

Romney, Palin, and Huckabee will all run for the GOP nomination. Plus probably a half-dozen others.

While BobLibDem is right in that the GOP tends to nominate the candidate whose 'turn' it is, I think there's less clarity as to whose turn it is than just about any time I can recall. Palin's got a good claim as the veep nominee last time around; Huck and Romney do as well, based on their primary showings in 2008.

Obama will not have a serious challenger for the Dem nomination, and will win re-election.

[Doctor Who]

Originally Posted by Ludovic

Democrats, at this point, are probably hoping Palin will run. I'd be salivating over running actual footage of her chanting "Drill, Baby, Drill!" It's one thing to oppose a policy, another when you have a pre-made propaganda ad handed to you on a platter.

Seconded. She must have seen the BP disaster unfolding on television, thought back to that quote, and said, "Shit."

[Duke]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

Romney will get nominated because it's his turn and that's how the GOP does things.

If Romney is nominated it will almost feel like a concession. Romney feels like the Bob Dole of 2012 to me: someone who's been around a while and run unsuccessfully for the nomination in the past, but the bottom line is that while he's someone who can be liked he's not someone to get excited about. Even when he ran in 2008 it seemed as if his chief claim to fame was that he was a relatively safe candidate with enough money to mount a decent campaign. He's just not got enough mojo to beat the incumbent unless Obama really screws up post-nomination. But I don't necessarily see Romney being nominated. The far right doesn't like him, and the more centrist GOP voters don't like him enough to counter that.

I think the best bet for the GOP in 2012 is to look for an under-the-radar candidate with a good record in state government, preferably one who can appeal to moderates. It's their best shot at appealing to anti-incumbent sentiment while still being able to point to experience. That's not to say a candidate like that is going to win, but at least defeat isn't going to deprive the GOP of a big shot, and despite what I said about "appealing to anti-incumbent sentiment", it's still darn difficult to beat an incumbent president...it's only happened once since 1980.

Frankly I don't think any of the names mentioned in this thread are going to be there in 2012. Romney I mentioned above. Palin is losing support by the day and could torpedo herself at any moment. Ron Paul is too old to run again, Rand Paul might not even win the KY Senate race, which would be a massive blow to the GOP and will run him out of politics on a rail. Jim DeMint...*shrug*...maybe if the right-wing rallies around him. I can't help but recall he actually lost his SC GOP primary by 18 points, was saved in a runoff election, then couldn't even win a very solid GOP state by double-digits in the general election.

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by RTFirefly

Romney, Palin, and Huckabee will all run for the GOP nomination. Plus probably a half-dozen others.

Huckabee may try but I don't think he's going to be in it for very long. And unfortunately last I saw it looked like he'd regained a bunch of weight. That's a serious problem for him. Whether he runs or not I hope he can deal with it.

Originally Posted by Doctor Who

Seconded. She must have seen the BP disaster unfolding on television, thought back to that quote, and said, "Shit."

Maybe. But Obama's earlier support for offshore drilling may limit his ability to attack her (or anyone) on that issue. We'll see what he does in the wake of the leak.

[RTFirefly]

Originally Posted by Marley23

Huckabee may try but I don't think he's going to be in it for very long.

That part, I'll agree with. He played his hand badly in 2008, wasting time and money on NH, where he should have known he never had a prayer, after winning Iowa. (IMHO, he should have essentially skipped NH and gone straight to MI or SC, stealing a march on his rivals in one of those states.) I don't think he's gotten any smarter since then. But he'll still run.

[ElvisL1ves]

The more people got to know Romney the last time, the lower his support got. And he's done nothing since to change that, or to add to his thin resume. He may get it because somebody has to, but not with any real enthusiasm behind it.

I don't see any potential winners on that side, only survivors. But it's early yet.

[Skammer]

In addition to Huckabee, Romney, Paul and Palin, I see Gingrich in the primaries as well. Then possibly Jindal or Pawlenty. I think you might see 7-8 candidates running in Iowa/NH, before they start dropping out.

As to who will get the nomination -- it's a crapshoot. I would rule out Palin and Gingrich and probably Huckabee. Romney and Paul, possibly, if Paul doesn't say or do anything stupid. The others are not yet well known enough to get a good gauge on.

Edited to add: for the Democrats, Obama will re-run and probably win. If (heaven forbid) he is incapacitated before the election, you might see Biden run for re-election against Hillary. If Obama serves out his term but elects not to run, you might get a couple of other Dem hopefuls in addition to Hillary but she'll have the clear advantage.

[Phlosphr]

As a salivating Democrat hoping Palin runs again, Romney will certainly run but I can't discount a favorable pull by Jindahl or one of the Pauls. I will jump for joy if Palin runs again, she makes a mockery of the GOP by simply having no poolitical acumen aside from Drill Baby Drill! And the Conservative Right Loves her for it - if this current spill gets any worse - which it looks like it will, she'll be eating her words even more than Obama's early support for OSD.

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by Skammer

In addition to Huckabee, Romney, Paul and Palin, I see Gingrich in the primaries as well. Then possibly Jindal or Pawlenty. I think you might see 7-8 candidates running in Iowa/NH, before they start dropping out.

Just for the record, in the last few non-incumbent GOP primaries, there were seven (2008), six (2000, and eight (1996) candidates in the Iowa caucuses. And there are always a couple of candidates who can't raise enough money to even make it that far.

[Diogenes the Cynic]

I don't think Palin will run. She doesn't have the intellect, the belly or the skin for it. She'll never come out of her protective little conservative media cocoon and fight a fair fight. Even in the Republican Primaries, she would have to face opposition and criticism. Those guys like Romney and Gingrich and Huckabee are not just going to give her a free ride (though Pawlenty might, he's an obsequious little bastard), and even if she won the nomination, she'd be trounced in the general. Obama is still the most popular politician in the country, and Palin is one of the most (if not THE most) unpopular.

Gingrich looks to me like he wants to run. He's got a huge ego, and he probably thinks he can get the teabaggers while maintaining some credibility as a national candidate because of his legit background as a former Speaker.

On a charismatic level, he's a plane crash, though. Charmless, reptillian, amoral in his personal life. Three marriages, lots of adultery, cheating on, then serving divorce papers to one of his wives while she was in the hospital with cancer. Cheating on his next wife at exactly the same time he was calling on Clinton to resign for getting a blowjob.

His public life has not been much better. After the so-called "Republican Revolution" of 2004, Clinton totally pwned him during the government shutdown -- just pulled down his pants and spanked him -- then Gingrich told a bunch of reporters that he'd shut down the government because Clinton had made him sit at the back of Air Force 1, and the Republican Revolution was dead in the water after that. Gingrich's unpopularity became an increasing political liability to his party. He became the first Speaker ever sanctioned for ethics violations, his approval ratings tanked, and his own party started gunning for his seat. He survived one House coup attempt, but after the loss of seats in '98, Gingrich resigned both the Speakership and his own seat in the House (basically, he was too much of a baby to be able to tolerate going back to just being a member under somebody else's leadership).

The guy would be a dream for the Dems to run against. He's all flaws and no strengths.

I think it will probably be Romney, as the safest, non-crazy choice. The Pubs can't beat Obama with just teabaggers. With the unlimited corporate financing they will now have, they don't even need to pander to the wingnuts for cash. Teabaggers only matter in Republican Primaries. In general elections they are meaningless.

I predict Romney will choose Jeb Bush as his running mate, or possibly (if he can find one) a credible Republican Latino.

[Marley23]

Palin's already run, though. There were parts of it she didn't enjoy but she seems like the type who would do it again, either to prove to her enemies that she can do it, or because she's become convinced that 'real Americans' love her.

[jsgoddess]

Originally Posted by Diogenes the Cynic

I predict Romney will choose Jeb Bush as his running mate, or possibly (if he can find one) a credible Republican Latino.

I think he'd do better to find a good female running mate. One who shows up all the flaws in Palin.

[Duke]

Originally Posted by Diogenes the Cynic

I predict Romney will choose Jeb Bush as his running mate, or possibly (if he can find one) a credible Republican Latino.

I don't think Romney would make the mistake of picking Jeb Bush as a VP candidate. The GOP can only win the election by converting Obama voters, and putting W's brother on the ticket is just not going to do that.

[Captain Amazing]

Originally Posted by Diogenes the Cynic

I predict Romney will choose Jeb Bush as his running mate, or possibly (if he can find one) a credible Republican Latino.

Rubio, maybe, assuming he wins the Senate seat?

[jayjay]

I don't think you can really predict, this early, who's going to be running (aside from Obama, of course). I highly doubt Obama will get a serious primary opponent...you'll maybe get a couple of publicity runs, far left icons who will try to point up Obama's centrism and corporate ties, but they won't even get to Iowa.

As far as Republicans, I'm not making any predictions until I see who flies to Iowa or New Hampshire in October 2011 to lay their groundwork ("retail politics", as it's called...visiting farmers, eating lunch at diners, kissing hands, shaking babies, etc.).

[Bryan Ekers]

If Palin runs, it'll just be to publicize her latest ghost-written book.

[Ogre]

I figured the Repubs would be tempted to trot out Bobby Jindal, as a viable minority candidate.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Ogre

I figured the Repubs would be tempted to trot out Bobby Jindal, as a viable minority candidate.

He's also an exorcist and faith-healer. Even many religious conservatives would look askance at such claims.

[Skammer]

I mostly agree with Diogenes -- I think Palin will be a tease, string out her fans, but ultimately not decide to run for whatever self-serving purpose (and blame it on the media). Then she'll go back to her book royalties and Fox News paycheck.

[Little Nemo]

I think it'll be Romney if Obama is looking vulnerable. He's the establishment candidate.

But as such, Romney won't want to waste his chance in a losing campaign. If he thinks Obama is going to be re-elected, he might risk defering his "turn" until 2016.

This could backfire. Bush was seen as unbeatable for 1992 and the big names for the Democrats decided to wait until 1996. This left an opening for Clinton to step into.

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by Little Nemo

This could backfire. Bush was seen as unbeatable for 1992 and the big names for the Democrats decided to wait until 1996. This left an opening for Clinton to step into.

Which is why Mario Cuomo has been known to get into bed at night, hum the first few bars of "Hail to the Chief," and cry himself to sleep.

[ElvisL1ves]

Fuck him. Cuomo wanted the job, but only if it were going to be handed to him by a grateful public begging him to save them. Not if he had to actually work for it.

He's far from the only pol who's had that problem, but c'mon, he couldn't even decide to accept the Supreme Court nomination Clinton was going to hand him.

[Little Nemo]

Which is why Mario Cuomo has been known to get into bed at night, hum the first few bars of "Hail to the Chief," and cry himself to sleep.

There was a Tom Toles cartoon that showed Bill Clinton at his inauguration and in the crowd there was Mario Coumo saying "I'm still thinking it over..."

[BobLibDem]

Originally Posted by jsgoddess

I think he'd do better to find a good female running mate. One who shows up all the flaws in Palin.

I've got it! The ticket of Romney-Bachmann!

[Skald the Rhymer]

Originally Posted by Doctor Who

Seconded. She must have seen the BP disaster unfolding on television, thought back to that quote, and said, "Shit."

I doubt it. She does not strike me as being sufficiently self-reflective.

[jayjay]

Originally Posted by Skald the Rhymer

I doubt it. She does not strike me as being sufficiently self-reflective.

Got it in one!

[Chefguy]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

Palin will not run because she has no interest whatsoever in learning enough about the issues to talk about them intelligently. Besides, her only interest in life is making Sarah wealthy.

A winnah! She's not about to risk any of her new capital on a campaign. She might be drafted by the Tea Party, and will make a big show of contemplating a run, but in the end will give some version of the same lame "I'm quitting for the good of America" bullshit speech she made when she quit as governor. Running for prez is hard goddamned work and she's not up for it unless there's a paycheck at the end.

[Chronos]

Palin will not run because she has no interest whatsoever in learning enough about the issues to talk about them intelligently. Besides, her only interest in life is making Sarah wealthy.

That's not true at all! She's also interested in making Sarah famous.

In the Republican primaries, we'll probably see Palin, one of the Pauls, Huckabee, Gingrich, Romney, Jindall, and Pawlenty, plus maybe a few others. Out of those, I think that Romney is the best chance for the Republicans, and I also think that they'll realize that and he'll get the nomination, but I think there's still the opportunity for Paul (whichever one runs), Huckabee, or some dark-horse governor. Palin will have a very public meltdown and be forced out by the evil media quit before the convention, Gingrich is old news, and if Jindall shows up on the ticket, it'll be as VP, not President.

[Dallas Jones]

Originally Posted by Chefguy

A winnah! She's not about to risk any of her new capital on a campaign. She might be drafted by the Tea Party, and will make a big show of contemplating a run, but in the end will give some version of the same lame "I'm quitting for the good of America" bullshit speech she made when she quit as governor. Running for prez is hard goddamned work and she's not up for it unless there's a paycheck at the end.

I agree.

I think Sarah Palin will remain in her newly found role as outside agitator. There is more money in it and less risk. She can say whatever she wants with few consequences.

[foolsguinea]

Originally Posted by Paul in Qatar

I am hoping for RuPaul.

Can the GOP do better?

[Wesley Clark]

I think someone might try to primary Obama from the left, but I'm not sure who. But something like that could happen to recapture all the energy Obama originally created, but lost from his base.

As far as the GOP, the tea party activists keep electing more right wing candidates than the official GOP party puts out. This is good and bad from a liberal POV because on one hand they are less electable, but if they do win elections they will be even less cooperative and more aggressive (as if the current GOP isn't already).

So the same should happen in the 2012 GOP primary. I assume the field will consist of governors and senators, some of whom are reasonably moderate, but at the end some tea party approved candidate will win.

But for both parties the 2010 primary season seems to be one where the base pushes for more ideological and non-incumbent candidates. I don't know if that'll carry over to 2012 but I assume so.

[foolsguinea]

Originally Posted by Chronos

... if Jindall shows up on the ticket, it'll be as VP, not President.

Yeah, if that. Is putting a South Asian Roman Catholic on the ticket worth it to the party?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by foolsguinea

Can the GOP do better?

It hasn't since Eisenhower.

[Onomatopoeia]

Originally Posted by jayjay

Got it in one!

Oh my. She is mind-numbingly stupid.

[Dostoyevsky]

Originally Posted by Duke

Ron Paul is too old to run again[SNIP]

The latest issue of Time disagrees.

All that, and the rise of the son, makes a repeat White House run by the father more likely, no matter his age. Ron Paul has already scored a big win in the first straw poll of the 2012 season, beating the likes of Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin at a gathering of conservatives in February. "It's way too early" to decide, Paul says. "I have no plans, but I have not ruled it out." And why would he? He has already waited a long time — and it appears the country is moving his way.

[Rhythmdvl]

Originally Posted by jayjay

Got it in one!

No experience with Twitter here, but I assume that people can choose their own usernames. Is that actually her account, a rabid Palin supporter, or a parody?

[Frank]

Originally Posted by jayjay

... you'll maybe get a couple of publicity runs, far left icons who will try to point up Obama's centrism and corporate ties, but they won't even get to Iowa.

Originally Posted by Wesley Clark

I think someone might try to primary Obama from the left, but I'm not sure who.

Kucinich. If Obama runs in 2012, he'll be nominated. Otherwise, it'll be a tough fight between Biden and Clinton.

I agree that Gingrich will likely run; agree that he won't get anywhere. I agree that Palin will flirt around with it, and won't. If I had to put money on the nomination right this second, I'd put it on Romney. Pawlenty, Jindal, et al, I don't expect to see seriously until 2016.

[jayjay]

Originally Posted by Rhythmdvl

No experience with Twitter here, but I assume that people can choose their own usernames. Is that actually her account, a rabid Palin supporter, or a parody?

If you click on her name link on that page, it takes you to the actual Twitter account page and it's a "verified" account, which means that Twitter has determined that it actually is her.