Alaska Senate race

[Frank]

Lisa Murkowski, a politician from the moment she was put to her mother's breast, has apparently lost to Tea Partier Joe "Who?" Miller, whose only previous political campaign was a loss in a race for the state legislature. Miller was supported by you-know-who, and will now face Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams.

I still see Alaska as a win for the Republicans. Some think that Miller is too extreme, and point to Begich's win in 2008 as evidence. I disagree. Begich won for two reasons: Steven's conviction, and name recognition of his own. (He was mayor of Anchorage (the state's largest city), and his father was in Congress.) A mayor of Sitka would not have been able to defeat Stevens.

Nor can a mayor of Sitka defeat Miller. I believe, given two relative unknowns, that Alaska will remain safely Republican. Joe Miller will be the junior Senator from Alaska come January.

[pseudotriton ruber ruber]

Do the write-in ballots favor Murkowski overwhelmingly?

[Frank]

Originally Posted by pseudotriton ruber ruber

Do the write-in ballots favor Murkowski overwhelmingly?

Who knows? If all absentee ballots requested are returned, Murkowski will need to win close to 60% of them.

Perhaps I'm jumping the gun. I don't think so, but we'll see.

[E-Sabbath]

I would assume that, all things being equal, write-in ballots would favor the more stable candidate, as they tend to be physically older than the vote. She has the more famous name, being a second-gen politician. I would suspect the write-ins largely come from smaller, more separated towns. I think her chances of winning is at least even, and probably better than that.

[Chefguy]

Miller's success is a mystery to me, since part of his platform is to have the state stop accepting government money. One-third of the jobs in Alaska are federal, a large number of contractors depend upon federal projects, and nearly every program depends upon federal spending, so it would be disastrous to shut off the flow. Not that the legislature would allow him to do it in the first place. Murkowski has apparently been branded as not being conservative enough. What this really means is that she thinks for herself on many issues (such as abortion) instead of marching in lockstep with the Palinistas. Also, a lot of people are still pissed off about her being appointed to the position by her daddy, her subsequent election notwithstanding.

I agree that absentee ballots will favor her, possibly even heavily enough to pull off a win.

[Simplicio]

Originally Posted by pseudotriton ruber ruber

Do the write-in ballots favor Murkowski overwhelmingly?

The polls turned against Murkowski fairly recently, so I think her hope is that absentee ballots, which were filled out some time ago, will reflect previous polling rather then the results of the actual election.

Dunno how believable that is, or whether absentee ballots in similar elections have shown that pattern, but it seems at least vaguely believable.

[Chefguy]

Originally Posted by Simplicio

The polls turned against Murkowski fairly recently, so I think her hope is that absentee ballots, which were filled out some time ago, will reflect previous polling rather then the results of the actual election.

Dunno how believable that is, or whether absentee ballots in similar elections have shown that pattern, but it seems at least vaguely believable.

Many people in Alaska vote absentee so they don't have to fight any lines (that's a joke, as hardly anybody votes up there), and can do so almost up until election day.

[Frank]

Murkowski conceded Tuesday evening. She was gaining slightly in the absentees, but nowhere near what she needed.

[Chefguy]

Originally Posted by Frank

Murkowski conceded Tuesday evening. She was gaining slightly in the absentees, but nowhere near what she needed.

A somewhat shocking result, but since Murky decided to "take the high road", they can only blame themselves. I know John Bitney, her campaign manager, and I'm sure he was frustrated by her lack of fight. She also had the unmitigated gall to actually vote for some Obama initiatives, which put her at odds with the lock-step obstructionist mentality of the Republicans. The general campaign should be a real dogfight.

[Chefguy]

The NYT has revealed in a very good investigative piece that Joe Miller, he of the anti-government, don't accept government money bent, has spent a good part of his life working for the government and accepting government handouts. He has eight children, which means that for many years he was collecting 10 permanent fund dividend checks from the state. At the height of the payout, that was $32,000. The guy sounds like a fake and a flake to me. This one could backfire on Palin, the Tea Party and the Pubs.

[Lamar Mundane]

Regardless of who wins, the state of Alaska, which relies extremely heavily on Federal funding, will have the least experienced Senate delegation in the country. It's one House member is 77 and who knows how long he'll be around.

[Chefguy]

Originally Posted by Lamar Mundane

Regardless of who wins, the state of Alaska, which relies extremely heavily on Federal funding, will have the least experienced Senate delegation in the country. It's one House member is 77 and who knows how long he'll be around.

Hopefully, not long. Don Young is an asshole of the first order and has contributed little to anybody but himself.

[Chefguy]

Sarah Palin and Glen Beck are holding a 9/11 event in Anchorage tomorrow. They're charging for the privilege, of course.

[Frank]

Murkowski is expected to announce a write-in campaign.

I suppose that with what has to be almost universal name recognition, and a small voting population, she could gain some traction.

Enough to win? Enough to throw victory to the Democrat? I dunno, but it should make things interesting anyway.

[Chefguy]

Originally Posted by Frank

Murkowski is expected to announce a write-in campaign.

I suppose that with what has to be almost universal name recognition, and a small voting population, she could gain some traction.

Enough to win? Enough to throw victory to the Democrat? I dunno, but it should make things interesting anyway.

It gives the Dem a real fighting chance if Murky splits the vote. Joe Miller's ideas and behaviors are too goofy even for a state as red as Alaska presently is. Murkowski is more centrist, even though she votes party line, and is therefore the enemy of all things Palin. I'm sure she'd like to retaliate for the bitch slap she got in the primary.

[BrainGlutton]

Same thing happened in the Florida Senate race: We've got a Democrat, a Tea Party Republican, and a centrist Republican making an independent bid.

Interesting times.

[gonzomax]

As a write in candidate, Murkowski, will spelling count? Could they just write in Lisa?

[Simplicio]

There's only been one US senator ever elected in a write in campaign (Strom Thurmond in the 50's), seems like quite a long shot, and she's going to make herself a pariah amongst the GOP, which ought to limit her post-senate career options.

So points for balls, if nothing else.

[gonzomax]

Originally Posted by Simplicio

There's only been one US senator ever elected in a write in campaign (Strom Thurmond in the 50's), seems like quite a long shot, and she's going to make herself a pariah amongst the GOP, which ought to limit her post-senate career options.

So points for balls, if nothing else.

The party turned on her. She owes them nothing.
She was insufficiently Palinized for them.

[Simplicio]

Didn't say she did, but getting a job as a lobbyist or in a Conservative think-tank after she's out of the Senate would probably be a lot easier if she wasn't going up against her party now, regardless of whether they deserve it or not. Especially given that she's still young enough that immediate retirement probably isn't an option.

Not that I think she'll be starving on the streets or anything, I'm sure she's still well connected enough to find another gig, but still, she's making life more difficult for herself in whats historically been a pretty quixotic strategy thats unlikely to pay off.

[Jophiel]

Originally Posted by gonzomax

As a write in candidate, Murkowski, will spelling count? Could they just write in Lisa?

The Secretary of State is supposed to come up with a list of acceptable aliases so "Liza Merkowsky" will probably be accepted but "L. M." won't be. From what I've read, Alaska is fairly liberal in accepting intent.

[Frank]

Originally Posted by Simplicio

Didn't say she did, but getting a job as a lobbyist or in a Conservative think-tank after she's out of the Senate would probably be a lot easier if she wasn't going up against her party now, regardless of whether they deserve it or not. Especially given that she's still young enough that immediate retirement probably isn't an option.

Not that I think she'll be starving on the streets or anything, I'm sure she's still well connected enough to find another gig, but still, she's making life more difficult for herself in whats historically been a pretty quixotic strategy thats unlikely to pay off.

We could probably stand a few more politicians whose primary concern is not how they will take advantage of having been a politician in order to line their pockets.

[Boyo Jim]

Originally Posted by Simplicio

There's only been one US senator ever elected in a write in campaign (Strom Thurmond in the 50's), seems like quite a long shot, and she's going to make herself a pariah amongst the GOP, which ought to limit her post-senate career options.

So points for balls, if nothing else.

If she wins, they will have secretly have been rooting for her all along. If she loses, she's a hates American and supports Al Queda.

[Chefguy]

Now it has come to light that Joe Miller, the Tea Party darling whose mantra is "no government handouts", accepted farm subsidies from said government in the 90s. At least he admits doing so, but it kinda weakens his platform I would think.

[gonzomax]

Originally Posted by Jophiel

The Secretary of State is supposed to come up with a list of acceptable aliases so "Liza Merkowsky" will probably be accepted but "L. M." won't be. From what I've read, Alaska is fairly liberal in accepting intent.

On CNN today ,they said the name has to be spelled properly. They showed Murkowsky aides on ads showing the correct way to spell it.
They also said there is pressure being exerted to have the spelling rules relaxed. They may end up doing it.

[joebuck20]

It seems the Palins are a little miffed at some of Miller's debate responses:

http://gawker.com/5656514/leaked-ema...yline=true&s=i

Some testy emails between the camps of Sarah Palin and Alaskan Senate candidate Joe Miller, whom she endorsed, have leaked, and yikes! Basically, when Miller refused to directly answer a televised question regarding Palin's presidential qualifications, Todd Palin was... unhappy.

[Chefguy]

Originally Posted by joebuck20

It seems the Palins are a little miffed at some of Miller's debate responses:

http://gawker.com/5656514/leaked-ema...yline=true&s=i

I'm wondering if Miller actually asked for Palin's endorsement, or if she decided that she would just butt into the fray in order to try to take out Murkowski. Miller is from Fairbanks, and people up there don't react well to what they see as interference in their lives. If he didn't ask for her endorsement, I'm sure he feels zero obligation to suck her (or Todd's) political dick.

Also, I find it very amusing that Palin spent an entire morning working on a Facebook entry.

[BobLibDem]

Originally Posted by Chefguy

Also, I find it very amusing that Palin spent an entire morning working on a Facebook entry.

To be fair, she probably gets distracted by Farmville when she makes her Facebook entries.

[Chefguy]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

To be fair, she probably gets distracted by Farmville when she makes her Facebook entries.

At least she's making good use of that journalismic degree.

[Chefguy]

An outfit called Alaska Dispatch (.com) is digging into Joe Miller's employment history and has sued for release of information from the Fairbanks Borough. Seems he may have used borough computers to do some of his politicking, which is expressly forbidden by state (and borough) law. This follows on the heels of his accusing the borough of politicking on behalf of Sen. Murkowski. Additionally, while he is demanding full disclosure, he refuses to authorize the borough to release his records, which delineate why he left their employment. This guy is the definition of slippery and slimy.

[Chronos]

A borough is the equivalent of a county, right?

[Boyo Jim]

Not in NY. NYC is divided into boroughs. So there, at least, they're more akin to city council districts.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Boyo Jim

Not in NY. NYC is divided into boroughs. So there, at least, they're more akin to city council districts.

But, each borough is a county, isn't it?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Chronos

A borough is the equivalent of a county, right?

Actually, it's the equivalent of a rabbit-warren.

Don't ask me to explain. People grow strange out on America's Last Frontier, and it seeps into their politics.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Chefguy

An outfit called Alaska Dispatch (.com) is digging into Joe Miller's employment history and has sued for release of information from the Fairbanks Borough. Seems he may have used borough computers to do some of his politicking, which is expressly forbidden by state (and borough) law. This follows on the heels of his accusing the borough of politicking on behalf of Sen. Murkowski. Additionally, while he is demanding full disclosure, he refuses to authorize the borough to release his records, which delineate why he left their employment. This guy is the definition of slippery and slimy.

The silent refrain that must be on the minds of many Dem candidates this year: "I can't believe I'm losing to this guy!"

[Chefguy]

Originally Posted by Chronos

A borough is the equivalent of a county, right?

In Alaska, yes. Fairbanks is in the North Star Borough. Wasilla is in the Matanuska-Susitna (or Mat-Su) Borough, etc. They're very large, with the Mat-Su Borough covering over 25,000 square miles.

[MovieMogul]

In a bizarre press conference Monday, Alaska GOP Senate candidate Joe Miller announced he will no longer answer questions about his past and blamed the media for focusing on personal attacks instead of the issues.

"We’ve drawn a line in the sand. You can ask me about background, you can ask about personal issues — I’m not going to answer. I’m not," he said.

Cite

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by ArchiveGuy

Cite

So, he's conceding the "character" ground entirely?

[Chefguy]

It's as though he really doesn't want the job. This gives an entire arsenal full of ammunition to Murkowski, who would be a fool not to lock and load. Unfortunately, the Dem in this race is getting no help from the national folks and really doesn't stand a chance.

[Boyo Jim]

I think it means Miller is going to win. Pretty much everybody doesn't want to have to answer for shitty things they've done in the past. And it seems that nobody wants to hold politicians to higher standards anymore.

Plus, not enough people will be able to spell Murkowski's name right.

[Chefguy]

Originally Posted by Boyo Jim

I think it means Miller is going to win. Pretty much everybody doesn't want to have to answer for shitty things they've done in the past. And it seems that nobody wants to hold politicians to higher standards anymore.

Plus, not enough people will be able to spell Murkowski's name right.

She has now got the financial support of the Native communities and the labor unions, so we may see an upset.

[Boyo Jim]

They better pour a lot of money into spelling programs.

[hajario]

Actually, they'll accept a close spelling as a vote for her. They said that they would even accept "Lisa M."

[Boyo Jim]

Originally Posted by hajario

Actually, they'll accept a close spelling as a vote for her. They said that they would even accept "Lisa M."

I heard they were still struggling over just how bad the spelling will be allowed to be, but maybe there is newer news than I've heard.

[Chefguy]

The latest bizarre twist in Joe Miller's campaign: his security detail "arrests" a reporter asking questions at a town-hall type meeting in a public school.

[Boyo Jim]

I can picture Miller's victory speech, "Alaska, you are under arrest."

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Boyo Jim

I can picture Miller's victory speech, "Alaska, you are under arrest."

'Bout fuckin' time . . .

[BrainGlutton]

Polls still have Miller leading -- but it's very close. At least, Miller and Murkowski are close. McAdams must feel like . . . like Kendrick Meek in Florida.

[Frank]

Originally Posted by Chefguy

The latest bizarre twist in Joe Miller's campaign: his security detail "arrests" a reporter asking questions at a town-hall type meeting in a public school.

Having never lived or even visted Alaska (one of the two states I've never been to), perhaps it's a stereotype I've got, but I have a very hard time seeing Alaskans reacting well to this.

Being sort of a wimp, isn't he? Not exactly someone with nerve, and a backbone.

[SmartAleq]

It gets better--check out the video in this story taken by a couple of other reporters from the ADN while Hopfinger was being detained in handcuffs. Keep in mind that this event was advertised as an open Town Hall meeting, held in a public school, and that bullet headed motherfucker who refuses to give his name is William F. Fulton, head of "Dropzone Security Services" which Joe Miller hired to do security for the event. Apparently the business license for Dropzone expired in 2009 and has never been renewed, so that guy has no legal right to be hiring out as security at all, let alone throwing his weight around pushing and threatening reporters in that manner.

Typical Teabagger, all about the Constitution unless it involves freedom of speech, freedom of assembly or freedom of the press for someone he doesn't like, at which point the jackboots come out and the threats, intimidation and violence start.