From what I’ve read (which may or may not be accurate, of course), conservatives are not at all hopeful about the economy, because someone more liberal than them who disagrees with their general philosophy is in charge, and of course they thus think he’s doomed to failure. Liberals are not, because they don’t think said person in charge went (or is going to go) far enough when he had the chance, so they also think he’s doomed to failure.
So is ANYONE predicting ANYTHING besides malaise and disaster for the foreseeable future? If so, why? If not, is there any reason for there be more hope than there is?
(This is all barring, of course, predictions like “Obama will lose in '12, and we’ll get a REAL President in charge”, for various reasons - not the least of which is that such a prediction would be premature without at least an inkling of who’ll be the Republican nominee.)
The general consensus is that the current recovery matches the historical pattern of past recoveries: improvement in some areas while others have a much longer lag time- I’ve heard the figure of six years for full recovery of real estate markets.
Home prices were a bubble. I’m not aware of many people predicting a “recovery” to previous levels. As someone who might buy a house in the next five years, I hope they stay low.
I think things will slowly get better. The company I work for is actually doing pretty good, and fundamentally we make consumer products. Surprising many, last year was actually one of our best ever, and we all got bonuses. I can’t predict the future, of course, but right now my life is going well and I’m pretty optimistic about things.
When I read the news I see that I’m definitely in the minority. So my solution is to stop reading the news.
There’s the counterargument that you won’t ever see a “full recovery” of the housing market because as Trom says it was a bubble; it shouldn’t have ever gotten so big in the first place. A robust, healthy real estate market still won’t look like it used to because the idea that it’s some endless wealth machine is gone. In other words, we are looking at a real estate recovery closer to what happened after the Dutch Tulip Mania; tulips are still sold but haven’t ever reached their old peak, because that peak was a massive aberration.
I’m starting to hear good news on the employment front personally. Two cousins who have been unemployed for a while just got good job offers, while another got a promotion.
This too shall pass. All economic downturns end sooner or later; all that’s in question is whether it’ll be sooner or later. And on that front, every indicator I’ve seen other than employment is already pretty close to recovered, and there’s only so much employment can plausibly lag the other indicators.
My non-professional POV is that the current recession is the consequence of years of inept economic policy. Supply side economics, deregulation, indifference to sustainability and a shrinking middle class are all collapsing in on themselves at once. We have an economy built on unstable foundations, a lack of demand and a shortage of resources.
I do hope that this is a turning point for the US and global economy, and we move towards an economy which is more sustainable (peak oil isn’t going to help), with a more stable and less debt ridden consumer/labor class and some regulation to stop trillion dollar bubbles.
If that happens, I’m hopeful. But who knows if that is what’ll happen. Either way the trajectory of humanity as a whole is pretty much always for the best. Most people are pretty decent most of the time, and if you give them tools they/we use them mostly for good. So in 50 years the world will be more educated with better infrastructure, better science, better medicine, more wealth, etc.
But I don’t know how I feel about the short term future. I think things are just going to keep limping along for another year or two until all the problems in the economy somehow get resolved and businesses feel confident enough to reinvest.
My understanding is employment is getting better, it is just getting better overseas. Businesses are taking the record profits and cash reserves and investing them in production overseas.
If all you have is a hammer, everything you see is a nail. We are not in a recession, nor are we on the cusp of a depression. Both predispose a viable capitalist economic system where the economy expands and contracts over a continuum. However, since most people cannot think outside of the box, their view of this current mess is short-sighted and just plain wrong.
I believe we are experiencing a fundamental fracturing of the economic system, coupled with a polarization and breakdown of the political system, and a social “it’s all about me” attitude. Everyone blames everyone else yet no one will look in the mirror. I fully expect one or both Houses of Congress to go Republican in the mid-term election, further stalemating any honest attempt to fix anything, let alone admit the problems are much, much worse than either side desires to share. Big money is already siding with one party to drive out the current president (as they are currently withholding their dollars and jobs so as to blame Obama for everything) in 2012 with unsustainable promises and the electorate will believe the political claptrap thinking a new president will turn it all around. The dishonest promises of 2010 and 2012 election will manifest themselves in mid-2013 way beyond current conditions.
Worst case scenario is the economy will not recover to anything like the 1990s heyday for at least a generation, unemployment will not drop for at least five years (or more), assuming the electorate remains placated with their own self-centeredness and fed by the political bullshit. Then again, when people who have never experienced real poverty start stealing and robbing just to keep bread on the table, all bets are off.
Procrustus summed up my views quite nicely. In the short term, I see no reason not to be hopeful. In the long term, I am not a psychic, and my views on the economy more than 10 years out are just as worthless as everyone else’s.
It occurs to me that I should provide some examples of liberals being down on the economy, to get an idea of why they’re saying so. Paul Krugman has been one example of late (e.g. his most recent NYT [?] column), as his constant arguing for more and bigger stimulus spending should tell you.
(ETA: Now that I think about it, the commenter sounds a lot like gonzomax in terms of arguments made, if that gives you an idea. Just my opinion, tho’.)
How I feel is all about my perspective. If I consider where we were in 2008, I’m relieved to see that things aren’t nearly as bad as they could have been. I really believe that we avoided the big one - and that’s good. But when I look at unemployment - I see that it’ll be years until we fully recover all the lost jobs - so that’s a bit depressing. I’m also worried that fiscal conservatives could severly cut government spending - which I believe would reverse the slow growth we’ve been seeing. I hope we take to heart the lessons of 1937.
On balance - I’m very optimistic about my personal future. I’m cautiously optimistic about the economy as a whole - since a slow recovery is better than no recovery at all.
