Scenarios for the next election and beyond

[New Deal Democrat]

It looks like the Democrats are going to do badly in the next election. The only real questions are: how badly? and what comes next? I can think of four scenarios for the future, and solicit comments on them.

1. The Roosevelt scenario. It is unfortunately too late for this, but this is what should have happened. Shortly after his inauguration in 1933 Franklin Roosevelt began the Civilian Conservation Corps. This hired people at government expense to do necessary work that the private sector was not addressing. It was enormously popular with the public. People hired by the CCC earned pay checks. They bought things. In order to supply those things, private employers hired people to make them, bringing the unemployment rate lower. In the Congressional election of 1934 the Democrats picked up nine seats in each house of Congress.

When Obama's approval rating was close to 70% he should have raised the top tax rate, and done something like that. Instead, he worked on a health plan most Americans do not like, as the unemployment rate continued to rise.

2. The Carter scenario. This, of course, is what Republicans expect and desire. The Democrats will do poorly in the next election. A Republican will be elected president in 2012. With the support of a Republican Congress, he will move the country in a sharply rightward direction.

3. The Clinton scenario. The Republicans will regain both houses of Congress in the next election, but the economy will improve, and President Obama will be reelected in 2012. Nevertheless, he will be unable to transform the country.

4. The Reagan scenario reversed. Because it is too late for the Roosevelt scenario, this is what I hope for. In November 1982 the unemployment rate was over one percentage point higher than it is now. The Democrats picked up 25 seats in the House of Representatives, but lost one seat in the Senate. Nevertheless, the economy did improve, Reagan was reelected by a landslide, and he transformed the country.

5. My scenario. This is what I think is most likely. It is similar to the Carter scenario. Reagan was saved by a decline in the world price of petroleum. Clinton was helped by the development of the internet, and the widespread sale and use of personal computers. I do not see anything comparable happening in the near future. To the contrary, I think a number of historical advantages have given out for the United States, and that the country faces irreversible economic decline.

I expect the Republicans to sweep the next election, regaining large majorities in both houses of Congress. The GOP will prevent President Obama from doing anything to deal with our economic problems. The economy will get worse. In 2012 a Republican will be elected in a landslide, and a solidly Republican Congress will enable him to pass anything he wants to.

Whenever the Republicans have dominated the country, the rich got richer. In the past most of everyone else benefited somewhat, although not nearly as much as the rich. In a declining economy benefits for the rich will mean that nearly everyone else declines. I do not think that is politically sustainable.

If the electorate decides that economic growth is no longer possible, it may opt for economic redistribution. That will benefit the Democrats. On the other hand, the Republicans may hold on to power by continuing to make successful appeals to white racial solidarity.

[Chronos]

Whenever the Republicans have dominated the country, the rich got richer.

And whenever Democrats have dominated the country, the rich got richer, too, and by about the same amount. The difference isn't in what happens to the rich, but what happens to everyone else.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Chronos

And whenever Democrats have dominated the country, the rich got richer, too . . .

True.

Originally Posted by Chronos

. . . and by about the same amount.

False, I think.

Bear in mind that which party "dominates" the country in a given year is a matter of a general party system, not just who is POTUS. The U.S. was in a Republican-dominated party system from 1981 through 2009 -- even while Clinton was POTUS. I believe we are now on the cusp of the Seventh Party System, as argued in this thread and this thread.