I'll bet Obama gets reelected

[Elendil's Heir]

As many of you know, I'm a strong Obama supporter. Although it's a long time until Election Day 2012, I'm willing to bet $100 right now that he'll be reelected. I'll bet $20 with the first five Dopers who say otherwise. If you want to take my bet, simply post, in bold, "I'll take your bet." Say anything else you want to, but those are the magic words to take the bet.

We'll exchange real names and U.S. Mail addresses via PM. If I win, each of the five will send me a check for $20 within two weeks of Election Day. If I lose, I'll send each of the five winners a check for $20 by the same deadline.

If the President dies, resigns or otherwise leaves office before then, all bets are off. If he simply chooses not to run for reelection (which seems very unlikely, to say the least), I'll pay up.

[Covered_In_Bees!]

When you win that easy money, I just would like to humbly request a donation so I can be a "member" and not a guest.



EDIT: And if you're feeling extra generous, a little something on top for a custom title?

[Elendil's Heir]

Nothing is easy money almost two years before the election. Just ask Tom Dewey and George H.W. Bush.

[Little Nemo]

Maybe you can get Rand Rover to put up seven dollars.

[furt]

Incumbent presidents are reelected about 2/3 of the time. I think you'll have to give odds to get any takers.

[What Exit?]

Originally Posted by furt

Incumbent presidents are reelected about 2/3 of the time. I think you'll have to give odds to get any takers.

Isn't that the whole point though? The bet is for any true Obama haters or fill in the appropriate Republican lover to believe enough that Obama is screwing up that he will not be re-elected.

[An Arky]

While the anger at Obama is palpable, the economy is slowly but surely improving for non-buggy whip makers, and by the time 2012 rolls around, barring colossal collapse, he should get back in. But if you think past elections seasons have been ugly, you ain't seen nothing yet.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by furt

Incumbent presidents are reelected about 2/3 of the time. I think you'll have to give odds to get any takers.

You don't take this kind of bet in hopes of winning money, you take it in hopes of winning gloating rights.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

You don't take this kind of bet in hopes of winning money, you take it in hopes of winning gloating rights.

This.

[TravisFromOR]

I doubt that Obama will be reelected. But then, if Republicans like our esteemed Walker keep doing what they do, reelection will be more likely.

[Chronos]

I think that he's probably likely to get re-elected, too, but I'm not a betting man.

Maybe you can get Rand Rover to put up seven dollars.

Wouldn't his stake end up being more like $2? I seem to recall the odds he wanted being more like 10 to 1.

[furt]

Originally Posted by What Exit?

Isn't that the whole point though? The bet is for any true Obama haters or fill in the appropriate Republican lover to believe enough that Obama is screwing up that he will not be re-elected.

So, the bet would be for any true Obama lovers or fill in the appropriate Republican hater to believe enough that Obama is doing so great that he will give odds, n'est ces pas?

[It's Not Rocket Surgery!]

Vegas has Obama as a current -130 favorite, meaning you would put up $130 to win $100.

[gonzomax]

You are likely to get Qin's allowance money.

[What Exit?]

Originally Posted by gonzomax

You are likely to get Qin's allowance money.

Isn't he a minor?

[Peremensoe]

I see no takers.

[Ají de Gallina]

Since I'm not a US citizen nor live in the US I can't participate n the bet, but even if there were Egypt-style protests and Obama was hiding in Cheyenne mountain out of fear for his life, I wouldn't take the bet at 1:1., 2 years is a loooong time.

[campp]

I think the more interesting bet would be on who the Republican candidate would be.

[Cyberhwk]

Who was it that proposed that absurd political bet a year or so back? Said he was right and was willing to put money on it...then glossed over the fact he was requiring people give him 10-to-1 or something ridiculous like that. Then got all indignant saying nobody taking it was proof he was right IIRC.

[Elendil's Heir]

Originally Posted by campp

I think the more interesting bet would be on who the Republican candidate would be.

By all means, start your own thread!

Ají de Gallina, you may certainly take my bet if you like, despite living overseas and not being a U.S. citizen.

[Peremensoe]

Originally Posted by Cyberhwk

Who was it that proposed that absurd political bet a year or so back? Said he was right and was willing to put money on it...then glossed over the fact he was requiring people give him 10-to-1 or something ridiculous like that. Then got all indignant saying nobody taking it was proof he was right IIRC.

It was Rand Rover, and it was 15-1. Thread here.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by campp

I think the more interesting bet would be on who the Republican candidate would be.

Here you go.

[Ají de Gallina]

Originally Posted by Elendil's Heir

By all means, start your own thread!

Ají de Gallina, you may certainly take my bet if you like, despite living overseas and not being a U.S. citizen.

Let's talk in a year's time.

[Agnostic Pagan]

I am tempted to take this bet since I have a horrible record of winning such things, but, also knowing my luck, this is what would cause me to break that streak.

Waiting to see if any real takers do show up.

He better get his butt to Wisconsin soon though if he wants to keep his base.

Ed Schultz railed on him last night after this exchange at the White House:

Q On the Wisconsin -- I’m sorry, on the Wisconsin situation, Congressman Ellison and others have called for the President to come out to Wisconsin and stand with the workers. Is that under discussion?

MR. CARNEY: Not that I’m aware of, Chip. I think what we have made pretty clear is that the President thinks and we think, he’s stated this, that obviously a lot of states in the union are dealing with fiscal issues, big problems in their state budgets that need to be addressed. And they need to act responsibly, tighten their belts, live within their means, just as we in Washington, the executive branch and Congress need to do with our federal situation.

Q And forgive me --

MR. CARNEY: But again, he believes very strongly that the way to achieve that, just like the way to achieve it here, is that people need to come to the table, work together, share the sacrifice, and produce the result that the people in the states want and, again, extrapolating to the larger picture here, the whole country -- do the things that we need to do to live within our means so that we can invest in the future, and I think that’s true on a state level.

Q And forgive me if I’m being redundant, I missed much of yesterday’s briefing. But you’ve been asked about what he said about joining the picket lines back in 2007 when he said, “If American workers are being denied their right to organize when I’m in the White House, I will put on a comfortable pair of shoes and I will walk on that picket line with you as President of the United States.” Is he ready to put on a comfortable pair of shoes and fulfill that promise?

MR. CARNEY: I think, Chip, that the President, as President, has a -- obviously an ability to be heard when he speaks, and he spoke to the situation in Wisconsin and his views on it last week. And I’ll leave it at that.

Q And I know you weren’t with him at the time, but do you think he meant that when he said it? Is that a promise?

MR. CARNEY: I wasn’t with him at the time, but again, I think that the President has different means of speaking out on issues and being heard, and clearly he did -- he made his viewpoints known on the situation in Wisconsin, the need for people to come together. He takes very seriously the fiscal situation that the states find themselves in -- some of the states -- and understands it because he understands it at the federal level. But he encourages the parties involved to come together and sacrifice together and reach a solution that serves the interests of all the people of the states, just like he’s trying to do for the broader nation.

Q Thanks.

Bolding mine.

I agree with Schultz and think he really needs to keep that promise - I love Obama, but he really needs to use the bully pulpit a lot more effectively. He needs stop the 'governing' mode and turn on the 'campaign' mode and start rallying his supporters, or 2012 may be a repeat of 2010 and not 2008 - and this country will be screwed beyond belief.

Congressional 'leadership' has been too damn quiet also. But that is another thread and/or bet.

[Elendil's Heir]

I must agree.

[gonzomax]

The finances have been orchestrated to heavily favor the Repubs. Citizens United gives corporate Repubs a huge edge. Now the Repub, governors are involved in major union busting. If they succeed, the Dems will lose their ally. I wonder how the Repubs will stop internet donations? This whole mess is political. I think the Dems are haded for a difficult fight.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

Originally Posted by gonzomax

The finances have been orchestrated to heavily favor the Repubs. Citizens United gives corporate Repubs a huge edge. Now the Repub, governors are involved in major union busting. If they succeed, the Dems will lose their ally. I wonder how the Repubs will stop internet donations? This whole mess is political. I think the Dems are haded for a difficult fight.

Yes, it'll be more difficult after Obama. Not now, though. Obama's sitting on a billion dollars. Wouldn't that be crazy to see a 2 billion dollar election cycle? When will this madness end?

[gonzomax]

The next election is expected to break 2 billion.

[Elendil's Heir]

I know what you're driving at, but I'm not betting more than a hundred bucks.

[elfkin477]

Originally Posted by An Arky

While the anger at Obama is palpable, the economy is slowly but surely improving for non-buggy whip makers, and by the time 2012 rolls around, barring colossal collapse, he should get back in.

If we see the predicted $5/gallon gas while we still have ~ 10% unemployment, a whole lot more politicians than Obama are going to face reelection doubts when the economy spirals rapidly downward again. As it is, things are too uncertain to predict the state of the economy in 2012, and isn't that the issue that generally keeps presidents from being reeelected? Or, you know, ballsing up an impending civil war, but that won't happen on Obama's watch.

[Really Not All That Bright]

I might have taken this bet if he hadn't abandoned DOMA last week.

[DigitalC]

Bush got reelected, i doubt anyone would take this bet. The Republican field also does not look very inspiring so far. Even a hardcore Republican has to know an uphill battle when they see one, i'm a hardcore Democrat but i wouldn't have put any money on them on this past election.

[gonzomax]

The REpubs have lots of money, they own TV stations ,newspapers and radio stations. They don't mobilize to run an election but run one 24 hours a day ,everyday. They are nasty and take no prisoners.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Does that mean you're taking the bet?

[gonzomax]

Too early. I need to see if the REpub union busting works. The, if it generates a huge backlash as people figure out the rich are after all middle class and poor people, then I might not. There is time.

[Rigamarole]

No shit he'll get re-elected. Constant/rapid regime changes serve nobody.

[jasonh300]

I'd only take that bet if someone could guarantee that Sarah Palin wouldn't be the republican running against him.

[Nunzio Tavulari]

I feel that a large part of Obama's success was the due to effort to get the inner city residents to vote. Now that the first black president has been elected, I do not believe that he will get as large a turnout from people would do not consistently vote in every election.

Older, wealthier, conservative white people are much more likely to vote. I think our next President will be republican.

[Really Not All That Bright]

If by "inner city residents" you mean, "black people", then no. Obama won 96% of black voters, and turnout among black voters was 2% higher than in 2004, but that extra 2% is 0.25% of all voters, and Obama won by considerably more than that.

[Elendil's Heir]

Originally Posted by Nunzio Tavulari

...Older, wealthier, conservative white people are much more likely to vote. I think our next President will be republican.

:: coughs ::

Care to make it interesting...?

[What Exit?]

Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright

If by "inner city residents" you mean, "black people", then no. Obama won 96% of black voters, and turnout among black voters was 2% higher than in 2004, but that extra 2% is 0.25% of all voters, and Obama won by considerably more than that.

Don't bother him with facts. Elendil's Heir trying to make some bets.

[An Gadaí]

Hey I've lost €14.33 stupider ways before.

I'll take your bet.

[Peremensoe]

Hey, by the time you have to pay up, I expect it'll be less than that.

[Elendil's Heir]

Originally Posted by An Gadaí

Hey I've lost €14.33 stupider ways before.

I'll take your bet.

Excellent! That's one.

Maybe I should place a time limit on how long this offer will remain open, before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary - say, noon EST on Jan. 1, 2012?

[muldoonthief]

Geez - what a bunch of slack jawed pansies here! I'm not even an Obama hater, and I think he'll be re-elected, but I'm a gamblin' man.

Elendil's Heir, I'll take your bet.

BTW, if he seeks the Democratic Party nomination, but fails, do I still win?

[Elendil's Heir]

Originally Posted by muldoonthief

...BTW, if he seeks the Democratic Party nomination, but fails, do I still win?

Yes, since he would not then be reelected, consistent with the OP (although I suppose he might then run as an independent).

Welcome aboard!

[Gukumatz]

I'll take your bet.

Heck, I want Obama to win, but I don't see it happening. I figure him for a scapegoat come the next election - do the hard stuff nobody else wants to touch, then don't re-run. Whether he'll open the door for Hillary or the republicans can find someone with enough credibility to pull in the centrists, I don't know. But considering his attempts to actually accomplish stuff, I don't think he plans to be a 2-term president.

I don't do checks though, but I think we can figure something out by the time November '12 comes around.

[Elendil's Heir]

Thanks, Gukamatz! I'll PM you.

[Elendil's Heir]

Originally Posted by Elendil's Heir

...Maybe I should place a time limit on how long this offer will remain open, before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary - say, noon EST on Jan. 1, 2012?

Having heard no objection, I hereby set that deadline. No bets taken thereafter.

[Precambrianmollusc]

Well I live in the US but can't vote and I hope Obama wins. Maybe I am just being coloured by the rampant redness that surrounds me here in sunny Utah but it looks like President Obama has a tough time on his hands next election, so for the sake of sporting humour if nothing else
I'll take your bet

Assuming I am not breaking some federal rule about furriners trying to influence US elections through gambling on the outcome.