Why I think Obama could lose

Instead of trying to counter the IMO ridiculous optimism in the Chicken counting thread or add my own admittedly limited poll to counter the prevailing feelings therein, I’ve decided to post this instead. The following people are all Obama supporters who plan on voting for him but doubt that he’ll win:

Female, 80+ retired postal worker
Female 60+ disabled, attorney
Male 40 - Program Director, Community Services
Female 50+ - Homemaker
Male 40 – Co-Owner, Small Business Owner
Male 38 - Co-Owner, Small Business Owner
Male 38 – Trucker
Male 38 – Contractor
Male 35 – Small Business owner
Female 35 Small Business owner
Female 35 – Surgical Technician
Female 35 Cashier

Can you guess what these people have in common? If you’ve already guessed, does it surprise you? I’ll post the answer later. I’d also like to use it as a jump off point for further discussion.

None of them have been in my kitchen.

OK, I’ll play. I’d guess they’re either all white or all black, and they doubt Obama will win because his father was a hamster and his mother smelt of elderberries.

No, it doesn’t surprise me.

They are all bigger than a breadbox? They’re black and white and red all over? They all think their friends won’t vote for Obama because he’s black?

You’re going to get a lot of joke answers here. It’d work better if you posted your opinion instead of asking everybody to play a guessing game, I think. Whatever the eventual reason, I think your pessimism is misplaced.

No matter what anybody else posts in this thread, you win it.

Their parents hate them? I mean, who names their kid Female or Male? That’s just crazy.

They are all Democrats?

And Stuffy if you don’t mind me asking, where do you live? Because I can certainly understand having the feeling that Obama is going to lose (and big!) depending on the kinds of support for McCain that you encounter daily. I reside in Texas and most everyone I personally know is voting Republican, so it definitely feels like there’s no snowball’s chance in hell. However, I try to take comfort in the polls and the fact that Obama wouldn’t have taken this red state anyhow, so we honestly don’t matter.

Obviously, they are all members of the Illuminati, who know already who will win the election.

Times have been tough with the Illuminati. They used to take only important religious figures, corporate barons, and miscellaneous power brokers. These days, surgical technicians and home makers are welcome so long as they chip in for the keg on Thursdays.

I’d guess they’re all black. But even assuming every black person votes Obama, blacks make up only 15% of the US population.

Ok, I guess they all have three things in common. Yes, they’re all democrats, they’re also all black, most are family members or spouses a couple are friends. We’re all in California split about half each between the Bay Area and the Stockton area. I’m not sure how to feel about this, but I’m more interested in what you guys think.

Frankly I’d expect a lot of black voters, particularly older ones (although not everybody in there is “older”) to be suspicious. The bottom line is that the polls say they’re not just wrong - they’re WAY wrong. Obama’s looking at a win of 6 to 8 percent, with 350 to 400 votes in the Electoral College.

Time Magazine recently ran an article with the demographics of voters. They said 100% of the black population were voting Obama, which I find hard to believe.

Yeah, me too. I also know a few who won’t be voting for Obama because they think he’s the Anti-Christ :rolleyes:

Surely they meant 100% of black voters?

Which is impossible anyway. I mean, some people will have unexpected things (like emergency surgery) keep them from voting (especially in states with no early voting). Even if there were some Monolithic Bloc 'o Black Voters in the U.S., instead of lots of individuals with myriad reasons to vote for this guy or that one or the other one. For example, I know that many deeply religious folks won’t vote for Obama because of his stance on abortion.

Yes, I mean voters. I thought it said 100% of black voters, actually now that I have the magazine in hand it says 97% of black voters. However, it also says 0% of black voters will vote McCain, which I find as hard to believe as 100% voting Obama. This is the October 20, 2008 Time Magazine.

If the election were held tomorrow, I’d say your prediction would be close to accurate. Although those numbers are really too high, imho.

I hope you’re correct.

But it’s not going to be held until next Tuesday. And I fear a lot is going to change in the next week.

It’s going to be close - 2000/2004 close.

I hope I’m wrong.

Why I think Obama could lose:

Obama is polling at ~54%.

Some of those (including myself) are true loyalists and really love the guy - maybe 30%.
Some of those may not love him, but are loyal by virtue of being Democrat - maybe another 10%.
The last ~14% I believe is weak support: independents who say “Obama” to pollsters because he seems exciting or whatever.

The people who are in the first 30% seem to assume that the whole 54% are rock-solid just like them.

But in fact that last ~14% are really wishy-washy people who are not oriented to the issues. They haven’t thought seriously about their choice yet. They are especially easily moved by fear.

In particular, the “Socialist!” stuff, I’m afraid, might be really powerful and move many of those weak supporters in the next week.

You’re wrong. If he loses Indiana I won’t be surprised because that one looks like a tossup, and if he loses North Carolina, I won’t be stunned. You have to also give McCain Florida before Obama even goes under 300 EVs, though. Give away Missouri and Nevada and Obama still wins. On top of that you can give away New Hampshire just for kicks. Now you’ve got a 2004 level of closeness.

Different scenario: give Obama all the states he’s leading in now except Ohio, Virginia and Florida and he still wins. Give McCain Nevada and New Hampshire on top of that and Obama takes it 271-267.

Things really haven’t changed in a couple of weeks, so I don’t know what you’re expecting to pop up in the next week.

0% ?? That’s just ridicul-dockle. Unless they’re rounding down, perhaps?

Makes sense, short of a really big Bradley Effect (in several key states).

A few weeks back a local alternative paper showed an essay by former Rochester mayor, Bill Johnson. It was pretty scary. I’ll see if I can find a link to it.

Now I’m not as leery, as I look at the likely electoral results. But it would really make me sick to see Obama lose that way.

(The article on Bradley Effect includes the possibility of a reverse Bradley Effect.)

  • “Jack”