I think it’s more likely that McCain will lose the electoral count, but win the popular count. With some recounts in Florida at least, unless they somehow fixed those machines in the last few months that give you a different number every time you tabulate: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5itCRfb374d8WBHb8rAFdtnxwRe0QD940OH181
Here’s the graphic that was in the magazine: http://www.time.com/time/2008/america_votes/
Scroll down to the part with the blue and red circles.
Thanks, I looked for that online and couldn’t find it.
Since their numbers are shown there as whole numbers, then anything less than 0.5% would show as 0. That makes more sense. 
And this was a poll of “national random sample of 1,053 likely voters.” I would think that Obama voters might be more likely to tolerate a poll and talk about their support of Obama. I haven’t taken any polls, although I’ve got a few calls.
You’re right. it is ridiculous. I can name a number of prominent blacks off the top of my head who are going to vote for McCain:
Alan ‘the self-hating black man’ Keyes
Clarence ‘the mysogynist pig and racist sympathizer’ Thomas
Michael ‘the apologist and denier’ Steele
Shelby ‘blacks will only go so far’ Steele
Juan ‘the token black FOX News butt licker’ Williams
Armstrong ‘the unrepentent former Strom Thurmond bootlicker’ Williams
There are sadly many, many more: Roy Innis, Lynn Swann, Larry Elder, etc… etc… You get the picture.
There. I’ve gone and gotten myself pissed off. :mad:
Sure, some Obama voters are more or less enthusiastic than others. But that’s also true for McCain. Some of the weak Obama supporters might switch to McCain, but then again, some of the weak McCain supporters might switch to Obama. Almost certainly, there’ll be some switches both ways. The question isn’t whether there will be switches, it’s whether there will be enough more switches from Obama to McCain than the other way around to tip the election to McCain. And while possible, that’s pretty unlikely.
Well the poll was only 1,053 voters, so if there was the average 15% blacks in the poll, that would be 157 black voters. According to my math if only one out of those 157 said they would vote for McCain then that would round down to zero.
Zero percent does not mean absolutely zero, it means less than half of one percent. How it affects this poll in particular I don’t know, but there’s no reason to assume anybody at Time thinks McCain won’t get a single vote from a black person.
Yep. I understand that. I believe it’ll be higher than 1 percent though. There are older generation blacks who, even today, have to be dragged, kicking and screaming to even consider voting for Obama because of their lifetime of conditioning that it’s simply the natural order for whites to run things. I believe **Skald **said, in a recent thread, that his father was going to vote for McCain.
They’re all bitter gay amputees with useless degrees in 18th and 19th century romance language literature?
I’m certainly not counting the election is in the bag until, at very least, next Wednesday (because if Obama wins by less than 50 electoral points or less than 3 million popular votes there’ll be screams of voter fraud and witchery), but I am optimistic. Polls have generally been fairly reliable in the primaries and in past presidential elections (no major upsets anyway) and I can’t really think why a person would lie about who they’re voting for in an anonymous poll.
I think Obama could lose because I’ve been south of the Mason-Dixon line.
Another way Obama could lose (and I think this is just as significant as any of the other factors) is if his supporters look at the polls, see him up by a lot, figure he has it in the bag and that their votes won’t matter, and decide they’d rather spend the hour doing something else.
Thus why he’s been emphasizing not getting complacent so often.
I know this could happen, but I just don’t think it will. For one thing, people want to be part of history. Being part of history is awesome! You can tell your children and grandchildren that you voted for the first black POTUS? That’s huge, for people of all races and backgrounds. Secondly, Obama has an amazing ground game. They’re not going to twiddle their thumbs and let Election Day pass them by. They’ve already voted and they’re prepared to work the polls, drive people to the polling places, and do whatever else necessary to get people out there. Third, I’ve never seen any evidence that high polls dissuades people or prompts them to be lazy. Long lines at polling places? Yes. Undue obstacles? Yes. Emergencies? Yes. Plain old exhaustion at the end of the day? Sure. But complacency due to polls? Can anybody point to an election where that actually happened?
Democratic complacency, the Bradley Effect, way-off polls, a disaster in the Obama campaign, concerted GOP voter suppression in several states or a major terrorist attack could each, singly or in combination, tip the election to McCain. I think it’s very unlikely, but it is possible. Obama is ahead in both the polls and the Electoral College math right now, and I think it’s probable that he’ll win, but I take nothing for granted. Nothing.
Here you go
What I’m worried is that it’s going to be a hell of a lot longer than an hour. I had today off because of weird circumstances, so I tried to go do that absentee-in-person thing - the line went around the block, almost all black people. Now, TECHNICALLY we can all get off to vote, but I already got an e-mail that reminded me that we were expected to vote outside of business hours and that if we absolutely positively needed to have off (I assume for circumstances like daycare) we had damned well better arrange desk coverage. I’m afraid that if I go beforehand I’ll be late to work and after I’ll be there until midnight. Now I’d wait all day - I vote for EVERYTHING. We’re electing a dogcatcher? I’m there. I love exercising my franchise; it’s the biggest muscle I got. Bigger than my ass, even! But will everybody wait? Can everybody wait? Especially people in traditionally undervoting precincts, first-time voters?
My guess for the OP as to what they all have in common: they’re all couples (and predominantly gay/bisexual/transgendered?)! Why and what that has to do with the election, I don’t know, but just glancing at the ages and occupations, they look like potential married couples to me. I’d love to know what the point of this guessing game is, though.
What they all have in common is that they’ve been leaked the advance copy of Obama’s speech his giving in that infomercial right before the election. In it, Obama announces that he’s the advance agent for the Xirsts, who intend to use us all for food once they arrive. Obama will also announce that because of the results of early voting he’s already President, and even if every goes to the polls and votes for McCain, Obama will still win.
Obama, however, has taken a liking to us, and will attempt argue on our behalf to his alien overlords provided we agree to make him Supreme Leader of the Earth, and paint the Eiffel Tower hot pink. This is the sticking point for the people in the OP. They’re all French, and cannot stomach the idea of such a thing happening.
Just to post an answer to the OP: They’re all 35 or older, either retired or working in careers which call for either no vocational training or a huge amount of vocational training, which says to me that they’re all fairly well set in their careers and can’t afford any sudden changes in what they do to pay the bills. Which is to say, they understand that they may well need a bailout or two sometime in the next decade or so, and that’s just not the Republican way of doing things.
Why would these people doubt Obama will win? Because the people with the money always win. That’s why they’re the ones with the money. If the RNC can afford $150,000 for a set of clothes for Palin to wear for a month and a half, they’ve got money to freakin’ burn, and they’re going to buy this election.