Inspired by responses in this thread; decided it was rich enough to deserve its own.
For a while it looked like Obama would coast to the Presidency. Now, it’s tough to deny that Obama has work to do to get to where he wants to be. Polls either show him with a slim lead or actually behind. Obviously there’s still a lot of politicking to do. But I was struck by some of the comments in the first linked thread:
I was wondering: if you’re confident in Obama’s winning the Presidency, why do you have that confidence? I mean, he’s always had factors working against him, many of which have been brought up here before: race, questions about his level of experience, pissed off Hillary supporters, and so on. His opponent is a war hero who’s been well known to the general public for years, with a well-oiled attack machine (including Hillary’s) behind him. Bush fatigue isn’t nearly enough to hang hopes on alone; look what happened in 2004. No matter why you think it happened (poor candidate, unfair attacks, stolen votes, whatever), that doesn’t change the fact that what happened to the Democratic candidate then could happen now.
I’m not THAT confident. I just think it’s more likely than not. With the Republican brand in as poor a shape as it is, with the momentum behind the Obama movement and with his organizational skills as sharp as they are, I think he can turn out enough voters to win a marginal victory.
I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout or anything, and he could still lose. I guess it’s just a gut feeling.
I always felt very pessimistic about Kerry, by the way. Gore too, for that matter.
Not wishing to hijack the thread but why do people always mention the race factor in relation to Obama? Is it a pre-emptive excuse because my understanding is that Obama polls better among white voters than either Gore or Kerry did in their respective elections.
Well, since one of the quotes was mine I guess I’ll chime in my two cents worth (and cheap at half the price!).
First off, I think Obama is a very strong candidate. He seems to have a pretty broad based appeal. To a certain extent I think this is because of his sheer presence and articulation. Also I think he is masterful at saying something that is fairly innocuous yet having divergent listeners hear what they want to hear. So, with the same speech he can appeal to a liberal, a moderate and an independent…even a conservative. Next I think that there is a broad base of unease or outright dis-satisfaction with the past 7+ years of Republican rule. There is also a lot of dis-satisfaction over Iraq and I think that this plays toward Obama and against McCain. Another point I think is that Obama seems to be capturing all or at least most of not only his base (left wing liberals) but the entire hodge-podge that makes up the modern Democratic party. No small feat that! It’s difficult for Democratic candidate to both capture the fervor of their base AND appeal to the US center because those groups are pretty diverse. Obama does this. Also Obama is, frankly, young…and he has almost an air about him of youthful vigor and energy. That’s VERY appealing. It doesn’t hurt that he is good looking either.
Contrast this to McCain. McCain has good qualities, to be sure, but I don’t think he has energized HIS base, nor do I think he has the same broad based appeal. I think McCain DOES appeal to the center, and I think Obama and McCain will probably split the center…well, right down the center. That’s BAD news for a Republican Presidential candidate though, especially if he hasn’t energized his base to pump up the vote. Also, again frankly, McCain is old. No fault of his own but there it is…the man looks like death warmed over. And that contrast between them is only going to be highlighted when they debate face to face. Also McCain rightly or wrongly (I think it’s a bit of both) is totally associated with GW Bush and his policies…and that is going to hurt him in the final tally, IMHO anyway.
So…I think it’s Obama’s race to lose. While I never underestimate the ability of the Democrats to fuck up, I just don’t see how he can lose this thing. As I said…I’ll be literally shocked if McCain manages to win this election.
When I wrote, “If we manage to lose this one we might as well dissolve the party and reorganize as Whigs or Federalists or something,” I wasn’t exactly expressing confidence. We managed to lose the last two presidential elections after all. (As a matter of fact, I do believe there were serious shenanigans, but the vote, especially in 2004, should not have been close enough for them to matter.)
Time and again I see Republicans unite behind a candidate they’re not entirely enthused about because, well, at least he’s not a Democrat, while I see our side fall apart because the candidate isn’t everyone’s ideal choice in all regards.
I only recall one post I’ve made here that indicated I was confident in a Democratic victory, and that was when I was still taking some of the more outspoken conservatives at their word that they would never support John McCain. But, true to form, the troops were rallied and the one Republican candidate with independent appeal was nominated.
I believe we have the better candidate. but I see people who were disposed to vote for Obama wavering because he seems to be moving to the middle (almost as if he’s trying to win a general election) while die-hard Clinton supporters are still threatening to abstain because their first-choice lost. Meanwhile, Republicans continue to coalesce around McCain because, although he may not be perfect, he’s one of them.
I think if we as a party can’t unite behind this candidate in this election… well, I don’t know what exactly. It’s not like I really think resurrecting the Whig party is going to help, but somebody’s got to do something, you know?
I don’t think Obama is going to win. If he’s ahead by thirty points in the polling up to election night, I’d still be surprised if he wins by 0.1%. Americans just don’t vote for the same people I do.
A few reasons. First off i think the polls are vastly understimating the newly registered voter demographics in their calculations. I don’t have time to look up a site right now but one of the main polls was only counting newly registered voters as 10% of the total vote for Obama when Kerry managed to get 15% of his total from them, do they really think people were more excited about Kerry than Obama?
Second, Obama is running the largest field operation in the history of American politics. Hes got offices in practically every single state, and hes outspending McCain by huge amounts in battleground states just on getting organized. This ties in with my first point above, i think Obama is going to do a much much better job of getting people out to vote.
I think Obama is going to win for several reasons:
New voter registration is running overwhelmingly for Democrats over Republicans. In North Carolina, it is over 8 to 1 for the Dems; other states show similar surges. These new voters do not show up in polls, because they do not meet the requirements as a ‘likely voter’. This will turn the tide in close states, which there are many that McCain holds by only a slim margin.
Obama can outspend McCain 3 to 1 after the conventions. McCain has to spend all his primary donations before then, and after that he is limited to $85 million because he accepted government financing. Obama is raising $50 million per month, and can well afford to challenge McCain in red states, forcing him to spend money to defend himself. McCain just doesn’t have the money to compete.
McCain is going to lose support after he names his VP, no matter who it is. If it is not a pro-life candidate, he loses a lot of moderates and independents, and if it is a pro-choice candidate, the base stays home. He is boned either way. I am hoping he picks Romney or Lieberman, which would be a bonanza for our side.
I’m not confident of his victory, and have seen far too many victories slip away to be overoptimistic this far from Nov. 4. It’s going to take a lot of work by a lot of people for Obama to win, but I think it’s quite possible that he will.
In his favor:
an economy in crisis
an unpopular war
an unpopular GOP president
the GOP has held the White House for two consecutive terms already
Democratic registration and self-identification by voters is 'way up this year
Obama has raised much more money than McCain has, and can afford more extensive advertising
The money thing is a good point and one I missed. It’s going to make a huge impact that Obama can spend a lot more in the key battle ground states. It’s just one more nail in the coffin for McCain becoming president. Fear’s point about a VP nomination sort of goes with what I’m saying…McCain hasn’t energized his base who seem to be pretty ho-hum about this election. No matter who he choses it’s going to tick off some portion of his support. If he goes with a moderate VP then it will piss off the right wingers…if he goes with a right-winger it’s going to alienate the center and undecideds. He’s fucked.
Contrast that to Obama…he can pick anyone but Hillary and it won’t make any difference to his chance. At worse it will have a neutral effect.
I’m not particularly confident in an Obama victory. I’m just terrified of the alternative.
I look at McCain, and I’m reminded of how I felt about Bush 8 years ago. I read other forums, and the *glee *with which some of the McCain supporters breathlessly report every (debunked) Obama rumor just sickens me.
We have the opportunity, here, to elect what is apparently a good, honest, intelligent President… but instead we’re bogged down in issues of whether he’s secretly a communist, or whether he hates whitey, or whether his wife is ashamed of America. No real talk on the issues- just “what’s he secretly hiding?”- while the country goes down the drain.
It makes me sad, it really does. And I’m afraid that the mediocrity of the masses will elect another Bush, and that I’ll have to suffer at least another four years of knowing that Americans would rather vote for a hypocrite warmonger they can have a beer with.
When he clinched the nomination, a certain Han Solo line sprang to mind… “Great kid! Don’t get cocky.”
I didn’t think it’d be possible for a ball of belly button lint to lose to Bush in 2004, so I don’t take shit for granted now. And as I mentioned elsewhere, I’m taking the 5th off to nurse what will hopefully a celebratory hangover.
I actually agree with much of what xt said, taking issue with the idea that Democratic ideas are that far from the American center; it was my impression that overall, Republicans are the minority party, but they just vote at higher rates.
And it’s also important to point out that not only has Obama raised a lot of money, he’s done so from lots of people chipping in $5-100 at a time, sometimes for months in a row. And he still has his local primary campains set up in a lot of places; this will certainly help get out the vote in the fall.
I also think that the age factor will break for Obama. A lot of people who don’t remember Vietnam will be voting for the first or second time (fourth for me). My parents and others there age are realizing it’s time for a new generation of leadership.
Well, just a brief correction. I didn’t say that the Democrats ideals are that far from the American center…I said that the left wing of the Democratic party are pretty far from the American center, and that this wing is at least as powerful in the Democrats as the right wing is in the Republican party. No one who doesn’t appeal to the left wing is going to make it through the nomination process to even have a shot at becoming president. I think this is why the Dems have done so poorly in the last few presidential elections…with the notable exception of Clinton who, like Obama, appealed to both the left and the center.