Because I’m working like a fucking dog for it and for all the effort I’m putting into it, you’re damned skippy I want that time investment to pay off.
Not to mention the fact that I want a smart president again. Not only that, but he preaches personal accountability.
Aside from the above, there are a few things that give me confidence:
–Young people have never been engaged in an election like they are now. Someone sent a card to PostSecret a few weeks ago that said she’d done drugs, drank, had sex, and all that, but she had never felt peer pressure like she felt about voting in this election. That’s big, and Obama’s campaign knows how to take advantage of it.
–In general, Obama is making a HUGE investment in his “ground game”. This is typically where Republicans have had a big advantage, since they’ve been far more organized at the local level, but Obama’s campaign is changing that. It’s going to make a huge difference in close states.
–The real push will come between the convention and the elections, and I just don’t see McCain winning a lot of people over or generating any excitement like Obama will. I think his support has probably peaked.
–Looking at the numbers, Obama has a lot more electoral votes “locked up”. McCain really has to run the table in the close states to win it. It’s possible, but it isn’t that likely.
I’m far from cocky about it, but I really think this is the year and Obama is the guy. And I agree with TWDuke that if we can’t win this one we might as well give it up.
Bolding mine.
Hi. I’m the ground game. How are you doing?
I’m on my way to sign up!
Bush got a gift in 2004 with the Massachusetts Supreme Court ruling legalizing same sex marriage. Rove was able to get those anti ssm amendments onto the state ballot in crucial states, like Ohio.
The Religious Right isn’t as strong as they were in 2004. They’ve had the Ted Haggard scandal plus the death of Jerry Falwell. The RR have never been enthusiastic about McCain. Sure, they’ll vote for him over Obama, but they’re not sending their checks or giving their volunteer time for him.
McCain looks old. I read a book about the 1996 election which talked about a day where the Clinton campaign featured Clinton and Gore carrying in large spools of wire to connect a school to the internet. The Dole campaign showed Bob Dole in a ridiculous outfit looking like he was going to a single mingle at a Florida retirement village. The same thing will be seen this year.
A bad economy always favors the party out of power. 1980 and 1992 had a party change in the middle of bad economic times.
People want to vote for Obama. Kerry’s votes were mainly NOT BUSH.
I’m not at all worried Obama will lose if everything’s run fairly and all votes are counted honestly. I am very worried about shenanigans, such as we saw in 2000 and 2004. And it’s already starting.
I waiting to see what happens in coming months but I agree the economy is unlikely to change a great deal in the near future. It’s should be in Obama’s favor. The Afghanistan/Pakistan thing is worsening daily too. The Dems need Mr. Biden to pontificate on that.
Welcome aboard, fella. I think you’ll be impressed when you get into it. Let me how you feel about it.
Yes I am confident in Obama’s victory… there are too many democrats engaged in this election. I would be floored to the ground if he lost. Floored!
Reading this thread made me go back to Obama’s web site and donate more money!
No! God dammit no! Go into your local office and help! Bring food! Bring water! Bring copy paper!
phew
That was close.
You are doing a great job, keep it up! I’ve been working for the campaign since October 07’ and am very pleased where it has come and where we are going. Here in Ct we were the lone warrior in New England [aside my mu buddies VT and ME] who won over Clinton in the Primaries, and I would expect our other brethren to join our ranks for the election.
Obama has staff members working full time on this, paid staff. I don’t know if it is on his website, but Obama’s got very good people working on this full time, people who were involved in O4’.
The legal division in Detroit is already up and running, and as I type this, growing.
Sadly, I agree. I’m not optimistic.
Mr. Obama is almost the perfect embodiment of the American dream - and you know, maybe that’s the problem. He’s a winner. He started from nothing and got somewhere, and while people are supposed to admire that, they often don’t. He made it, they didn’t. So they hate him. (I don’t mean Obama only, this is the “tall poppy” syndrome, “the escaping lobster” syndrome).
I think a man like Mr. Obama makes people confront their own ordinariness, and it rankles.
Whereas, someone like Mr. Bush or Mr. McCain was never an ordinary joe to start with. They don’t make anyone feel like a failure, you just envy them their luck.
I so want to believe, more than I wanted to believe in '00 and '04. I so want to have confidence that the American people will finally wake up and do the right thing.
But the doubt still nags.
In 2000, I watched Gore absolutely mop the floor with Shrub in the debates. You know what I heard more than anything else? “Oh, that Gore, he thinks he’s so smart!” Then that little shenanigans happened in Florida and the rest is history (or tragedy if you prefer).
In 2004, the Democrats put up a decorated combat veteran. We all saw what the party that allegedly “supports the troops” did to him. And the sheeple of the USA bought into it. Bush 2, America 0.
I shudder to think what the Pubs have up their collective sleeves this time around–and what the public will be willing to swallow this year.
Hopeful, yes. Confident, not so much.
Confident but not overly so.
Obama has many structural advantages as have already been mentioned. From the electoral POV Team McCain will indeed need to run the table of the toss-ups to win and not lose any of their own "for granted"s. It will be hard for him to rev up his core as they are hardly enthusiastic about him.
OTOH the election depends on turn out. If circumstances are such that Team McCain can get enough of the core to come out against Obama even if not for McCain, and the newly empowered voting blocs (young voters, Hispanic voters, etc.) end up sitting this one out after all … then McCain wins. I believe that Obama will get those people to the polls and that he will not allow any Swiftboating to stick. I am expecting a solid electoral win and a modest popular vote one. But confident this early on? Only moderately so.
Murphy’s Law.
It’s a bitch, that Murphy’s Law. But the GOP is not exempt from it.
I’m not confident at all. Obama’s character beat out Hillary, but he might lose that dance with McCain. Most voters don’t think McCain is a bad guy, even with his attack ads. If this race stays on character, Obama won’t get far ahead.
McCain’s weakness is that people are upset with Republican policies. If Obama gets better with his policy talk he might come out ahead. Though so far he is concentrating on media attention and inspiration. All McCain has to do is point out that Obama has little substance, and if Obama can’t get his policies across, people will start to believe McCain.
Hopefully his VP (Biden?) will help ease voter concerns about his lack of substance.
As opposed to 2004? Remember how energized the Dems were, and what happened? Yes, we forgot how energized the Reps were too, and how easy it was to get them that way, right? So far it doesn’t look all that much different.
Were you floored 4 years ago too?
This one looks like a toss-up. I would have been fairly confident of a Clinton win, but it would give me no pleasure at all to have to point out that I told you all so back in the primaries.