Fuck it, I'm counting my chickens

Barack Obama cannot lose. He will be the next President of the United States barring a “dead girl/live boy” scenario. And even then, unless there was concrete evidence linking him to the crime, I still don’t think he would lose.

I’m not saying this to gloat, I’m saying this because the McCain campaign has exploded so spectacularly that it would make Michael Bay blush. Palin is a moron and proves it more and more every day. Joe the Plumber has been an embarassment and has helped spread the message that Obama’s tax plan is better for middle class folks. And frankly, I don’t know anyone outside of this board that isn’t sick of the Pubbies’ shit by now.

It’s over and I can’t wait to officially get down with my bad self on November 4.

No. Stop that. Don’t fucking count your chickens. Go and vote. Already voted? Good. Ge the 4th off. Get others to the polls. Get your friends and families and neighbors to the polls early.

Seriously. Go. Get your people in. Get as many as you have to get out there ASAP. There better not be a thread on the 5th lamenting that you couldn’t vote because your registration was jacked up.

I’m with Justin. All the evidence says Obama will win and win easily. I will go out and vote and encourage anyone else to do the same. I will not act differently because I don’t believe the election will be close. So why can’t I be confident? I’m not one to ignore overwhelming evidence in the name of paranoia. I don’t believe there will be a massive amount of voters who will stay because it isn’t close, nor do i believe if there was, that somehow they would all be from Obama’s side. One vote will virtually never make a difference, so what does it matter if it is close or not. Besides I don’t just want to win, I want to run up the score.

I’ll be watching election day, but I fully expect the drama to be how close Obama can get to 400 EV and whether the Dems can sneak out a senate win in MS, GA, or KY. Obama should be declared the winner pretty early in the night.

I just caught a bit of Sarah Palin’s speech in Virginia. I haven’t seen her speak recently, and she seemed much more confident in this one than the last time I saw her speak. Of course she was spouting the ‘Barack wants to take your money’ lines. The audience was eating it up with a spoon. CNN had a little of Joe Biden speaking, until they broke away for news on Jennifer Hudson’s nephew. He was not as inspiring. The audience was quiet.

Here’s what worries me: ‘I will give tax cuts to 95% of you.’ An unsophisticated voter might think, ‘Percent? Math is hard.’ Then he’ll think, ‘What if I’m one of the ones who has to pay more tax?’ And he won’t understand the difference between $250,000 gross and $250,000 net. He’ll hear the Biden campaign using catchphrases and words like ‘Spread the wealth’ and ‘Socialism’. He’ll think ‘Socialism = Communist’. Barack, being an elitist intellectual, is hard to understand. By contrast, McCain/Palin says, ‘Barack wants to take your money.’ That’s much easier for them to understand.

I’m not counting any chickens. I hope with all of my heart that Obama wins, but I’m worried he won’t. And if he does, I think it will be a squeaker.

Yesterday at Walgreens, I overheard a conversation between two young black men who both averred that they could not vote for Senator Obama because “a vote for Obama is a vote for killing babies, and that’s not God’s will.”

Don’t count your chickens. Don’t let up the pressure. We need to win this election, and even if Senator Obama’s election were assured, it is NOT assured that he will win with a large enough margin to provide the mandate he needs. DO NOT COUNT YOUR CHICKENS.

268, 269, 270…bawk bawk bawk!

I’m going between that and hiding under my pillow, having fevered nightmares of awakening on a cold, dreary November 5 morning and hearing McCain Penguin-laugh.

Here’s the main problem with things like (minor) counting your chickens or (major) pre-emptively calling elections, people stop voting! When you say the presidential election is locked up and people believe you, they stop voting for Senatorial races that are close, or state legislature races that could swing a different way, or Proposition 141X that will take away funding from schools. The big elections can still have a drastic effect on everything else on the ballot and it’s best not to forget that.

Hell yes, I’m counting my chickens. One, two, three, that one over there makes four, five, six, let’s see, seven, eight…and there’s nine…ten…

All these voter shenanagins and vote suppression tactics and so on only make a difference if the vote is really really close. It ain’t gonna be close this year. Obama is gonna win, maybe not Reagan big but definately Clinton big. I’ve already voted, and my state is going Obama in a big way. George Bush may have turned 49.9% into a majority, but McCain isn’t going to come close to 49.9%.

Polls showed Bush and Gore were neck and neck going into the election in 2000. Polls showed Bush was slightly ahead of Kerry going into the election going in 2004. Polls show Obama is solidly ahead of McCain going into the election in 2008, with an even greater advantage when looking at the electoral college. Obama is going to win. Count those chickens. Eleven, twelve, Florida makes thirteen…

In order for McCain to win one of the following would need to occur:

Nearly 100% of polls would have to be wrong.

While there is a still some margin of error, pollster have gotten pretty good. I find it highly unlikely that they are all consistently wrong.

Voter fraud/supression would have to occur in a grand scale.

This seems like the biggest concern, but voting is too decentralized for this to occur. In a close election perhaps, but you can’t make an Obama landslide into a McCain victory. It would be impossible to coordinate. Also remember that the democrats have gotten much more of a presence in the positions that oversee the voting than in 2004. I think there may be incidents here and there, but it will only effect the margins of the vote, if anything.

Many individuals would need to change their mind at the last minute.

Obama is now polling above 50%. This means not only would nearly all undecideds need to break towards McCain, but a fair number of current Obama voters would need to switch over too, a much harder proposition. I don’t foresee this occuring.

It doesn’t matter if people have stupid reasons for picking a candidate. Those people were McCain supporters in the polling, and will vote for McCain on election days. The polls say their aren’t enough them, and their reasons for voting doesn’t make the polling invalid.

I’ll be suffering from Jet Lag in NC in a hotel room on election day. (already voted via absentee ballot)Hopefully my wife will be exhausted and sleep while i watch the coverage and hopefully (if the hotel has internet access…I guess I shoulda checked, but the room was booked for me by the personnel guy here)reading about it online.

Do not count your chickens for all reasons stated above.

Also, what is up with Obama buying up 30min of network air time? Seems a highly pompous and stupid thing to do. This has backfire potential written all over it and Thursday morning the polls could easily show chickens back in McCain’s basket.

So again, what **Least Original User Name Ever **and **Skald the Rhymer **said

This is the same country that let Bush into office twice, and has let him and his Republican friends run wild for years. I’m not going to accept that Obama is in office until he’s sworn in, and even then I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s assassinated. If McCain wins, it will likely be due to racism - I expect a lot of people are lying to the poll takers - voter fraud, or the Republicans dragging the election to the Supreme Court and having McCain simply declared the winner. Again. And in the latter case, I expect that the Right will claim a mandate, and the Left will whine about it and then cave in. Again.


Seriously. Counting chickens is not cool. …And you wonder why Democrats can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Three words:

Dewey Defeats Truman

Three more words: Joe. The. Plumber.

McCain has squandered every chance he had to make himself seem like a decent human being, let alone a Presidential candidate. If Obama supporters will stay home because “it’s in the bag”, an equal number of McCain supporters will stay home because it’s a lost cause.

If Obama wins with less than 300 EVs and 55% of the popular vote, I while be shocked.

I think when people are asked who they’re going to vote for, what they hear is, “are you voting for Obama, or are you a racist?”

That could skew polls.

55%? I think that’s a bit high. Of course, feel free to make fun of me when he does that. I predict him to win at about 52%-53%, which is an absolute killing.

Ted Stevens’s conviction sure can’t help the ol’ GOP beat Obama.

I’m with the OP. Barack Obama is going to win, and I like being able to say that. The hard work of the many Obama volunteers is still needed, of course, to actually seal the deal. The campaign called me today (I’ve donated money, but haven’t volunteered) and it looks like I’ll be taking a trip up to New Hampshire this weekend to knock on doors. Yeah, not much, but it’s the first campaign I’ve been involved in at all. So, I’m not getting complacent. But I’m not going to pretend that McCain has a real chance to win this thing.

After seeing how well the Obama campaign has been run, I’m quite confident that they have a massive GOTV plan, and perhaps I might just take election day off work and see if I can lend a hand. But I’m not actually all that worried. Not entirely calm, as the tiny prospect of four more years of a Republican administration is still frightening, but the rational part of my brain can usually calm me back down.

Fuck it, I feel good about this, and am excited to make it happen, and to convince other people to make it happen.

Jinxes aren’t real, people. It’s time to stop acting like Red Sox fans and accept the obvious: Obama is going to win unless something astonishing, on the level of a meteor hitting him, takes place. My apologies if being in the driver’s seat makes people uncomfortable or if the prospect of really getting what you have hoped for is actually a bit scary, but the facts are pretty one-sided here. Obama has a big lead, and McCain has tried everything he could think of to close the gap- to no effect. If anything the race is getting further out of his hands.

I don’t know what’s with this crap about chickens anyway. Is anyone here thinking about not voting just because this one doesn’t look very close? I think not.