I don’t see it, I think McCain has a very good chance of winning. I think much of the country isn’t really ready for President Obama.
It’s not about a jinx, Marley23. I think Tim Robbins put it very well on Bill Maher last week: it’s about complacency. If Obama supporters all go, “Oh, it’s in the bag, it will take a meteor hitting him to lose,” then they might not bother to actually go vote for him. It’s the reverse of Eddie Murphy’s drunk-people-voting-for-Jesse-Jackson routine: Obama supporters staying home, celebrating only to find out, to paraphrase Eddie, “He f&cking lost?”
Not according to most pollsters. Fivethirtyeight.com has him at 3.3% right now, and he’s been lower than 10% for a while.
I’d say that everybody voting for him is, and a lot of people who aren’t voting for him are doing so not because they don’t want a black man to be President, but because they prefer McCain’s positions.
Being the great big nerd that I am, I don’t believe in jinxes. I do believe in the electorate stupidly letting its will be frustrated because of complacency.
I’m a firm believer in the “people want to be part of history” theory. Even if Obama supporters think it’s in the bag, they want to be able to say “I voted for Barack Obama.” The early voting numbers prove this.
The only people that won’t bother were never really counted in the polls as Obama supporters anyway.
If all goes well, this will be a more enjoyable U.S. election result to read about than the last two were. 
Vote, though. I still tend to feel that people have fought and died for the right to vote, so it’s important. (Ach, all right, I suppose there’s a concomitant right to choose not to vote too. 
)
(Yes, I’m foreign. All right, I suppose it’s not my business. I can still hope for someone not too scary, though.
I’ve mentioned this before but was disagreed with. I stand by my opinion. I hate this move. It seems beyond stupid to me. McCain is already using it in his rallies. Why do ANYTHING unorthodox at the end of a game with a lead? The impacts of the potential negatives FAR outweigh the impacts of the potential gains. And there are so many potential negatives- 1) The public in general is turned off by bias. A half hour show on network tv in prime time has the chance to be seen by the public as blatant media bias. 2) People don’t like commercials. It was pointed out to me before that people may not like commercials, but commercials work- true, but they work when they are done in the accepted expected format. you dont see half hour commercials on network tv. A half hour Obama infomercial may win people over, but IMO will turn people off as well. With a lead, there is absolutely no reason to risk losing support tyrying to gain a little more.
3) World Series- ok, I don’t care if people don’t think this matters at all. Why the HELL didn’t they at least cut the damn commercial by 5 minutes so it wouldn’t be an issue to be talked about in the first place? There’s a freaking florida team playing. McCain is using the world series delay against Obama. Why give them that ? WHY???
Trust his judgement. David Plouffe has been right the entire campaign for more than 2 years. Anyone who tunes into that broadcast will not come away from it thinking they shouldn’t vote for the man all of a sudden. Chill.
I hope I am very, very wrong but I see more downsides than upsides to this move. FTR: I’m in Obama’s camp, but I still don’t like this.
Obama’s 30-minute commercial reminds me of a time, way back when…
I was a waitress and I never gave out my phone number to anyone who asked for it. But one day, in a moment of weakness, I gave my phone number to this one guy who seemed okay. My fellow waitrons encouraged me. So I did. We agreed to go out on a date about a week later. A few days went by, and I thought to myself, “I barely know that guy. There’s no way I’m going out with him. I’ll just tell him I’m sick (because back then I was afraid of confrontation) or something.”
He called me the night before our supposed date, saying that it occurred to him that I would probably back out of our date because, after all, I didn’t know him. He said to himself, “I better give her a call, or she’s going to back out.” And he was 100% right.
So he eased all my fears during that phone call and we went on our date.
That’s how I see Obama’s 30-minute ad tomorrow.
Obama hasn’t made a misstep yet. I think he’s doing the right thing.
But would he have eased your fears any less if he talked to you for 25 minutes instead of 30? I just don’t get why they didn’t decide to cut a few minutes, if just to eliminate overblown uproar they knew a desperate McCain camp would try to create.
I’m watching Pushing Daisies, ABC has decided not to run the electionmercial.
To me the politicomercial just goes against his very own advice of not getting too cocky. FWIW Bootis, I don’t see anyone caring if the WS starts 5 min late. Or if they even start late at all. FOX isn’t airing the special as far as I know.
Gala Matrix Fire and Phlosphr you’ve eased my fears a little, I just don’t think it is good precedent since the last person to do this was Ross Perot.
Also, the commercial is part of blitzing McCain and forcing him to pay defense as much as possible. Not that he’s doing much else anywhistle.
Take a breath. I agree that I don’t see a lot of positive to this commercial, and it may come off as a little pompous. It’s not going to swing the election five points McCain’s way, ok? The campaign has tons of money it doesn’t even need anymore and he’s trying to reach a greater number of people. After months of seeing how effective McCain’s campaign is, why should he worry about what they’ll do with it? Nobody can make sense of what McCain’s doing at this point. Being aggressive and looking to close the deal is the right move - even if buying WS airtime is grandiose.
Everybody… for my own sanity, please don’t make “chickens” the new “forked.” 
I found Tucker Carlson’s observations wryly appropriate here:
I won’t count my chickens either, but I think he has a pretty good point… :eek: 
I’m counting chickens. I’ve already voted for Obama. As Marley23 says, jinxes aren’t real.
This video pretty much says it all (a cautionary tale).
Oh my god, I can’t believe that Tucker Carlson appears to be the voice of reason. And what’s more, I agree with him. This election just got even more surreal.
That video really hit my funnybone at work today. I laughed out loud for about 5 minutes.