Eight years ago last month, I started a thread mocking George W. Bush for having a 37% approval rating. All agreed that this was quite low. Now Obama has reached 37% as well. Overall approval ratings for Obama in his second term have followed those of Dubya remarkably well.
What’s your prediction for the lowest approval rating Obama will get while in office?
Put me down for 30%.
I think his rating will go back up pretty soon, and the current rating is the lowest it will be. Perhaps only slightly lower, but not a lot.
Definitely no lower than 23%, the “crazification” factor, if I remember it correctly. In reality, assuming he doesn’t murder someone in cold blood and feast on their corpse, I don’t think he could go lower than 33%
Depends…when the true dimensions of the “Obamacare” disaster become clear, it will sink to about 15%.
I’m gonna say 33%. It’s probably exceedingly difficult to get below that - you will always have your die-hard supporters that will be behind you no matter what. Unless Obama starts choking puppies to death while peeing on war widows graves, he will always have 80-90% of the black vote, which is a non-insignificant fraction of the public.
This is all Bush’s fault.
Regards,
Shodan
Thanks for the threadshit.
I say it won’t go lower than 35.
What, no “This is the break the McCain campaign has been waiting for!” yet? Did the board’s fractional wits decide this one finally got too old?
My prediction - low 30s. Maybe 33%. Can’t expect it to go any lower, there are too many unreformable partisans around.
Considering Bush’s ratings then were on the heels of Hurricane Katrina, and Obama’s current ratings are a result of the Obamacare fiasco, I would say that there is greater chance that Obama’s could become worse.
The hurricane was over, and the majority of the fallout had happened by October 2005. However, I believe that the worse of Obamacare is to come (not being able to keep your current doctor; state’s retaliation over short-cuts; future failures of implementation; etc.)
There’s a likely floor for his approval, but, I don’t think we’ve seen it yet.
This sounds about right. There’s a certainly percentage of people who will cling to their partisanship to the bitter end. Similarly, there are some who support Obama because he’s black, and questions of performance or competance are not even considered.
Even if Obama did start choking puppies and pissing on war widow’s graves, the above two groups would either make excuses for him, or else they’d suddenly decide that such behavior is now acceptable.
At long last, a statement we can both agree on.
Didn’t Bush hit sonething like 23% at some point? I only remember because liberal spokesman George Will noted it along with the comment of “who are thses 23%?”.
The general public could not stay focused on an issue if their lives depended upon it. The displeasure, some shock, at the implementation of the ACA will soon be replaced by the next American Idol winner.
Most people in this country do not even pay attention to developing news stories, and when they are no longer developing, they get bored and move on.
Obama’s approval rating might go to 35% but I can’t see anything lower, and this dip will not last. He has that same “Teflon” quality that Reagan had, nothing sticks to him. People who were following the news in the Reagan years know what I am saying. A smile, a speech, I’m here for you, and by the way just what the hell is wrong with Washington?
The current unhappiness with his performance will fall away from him and stick to others, probably “Congress”, whoever they are.
On the Gallop poll, Bush bottomed out at 25%, one point higher than Nixon’s nadir, three points higher than Truman’s.
Just to put an actual number on my complete guess before, the latest poll shows him with 82% approval among blacks, with 12% disapproval. I actually thought his approval rating would be higher than that. I would guess it would be impossible for him to get below 75%…
Wasn’t the thing that tanked Bush I’s re-election bid his ‘no new taxes’ pledge? When he broke that, especially after the Clint Eastwood ‘read my lips’ delivery, he lost a lot of his supporters. I’d be comparing this more to that episode than anything Bush II did.
And I agree that if he’s at 37% now, it’s probably only going to get worse, but I see it decreasing at a decreasing rate asymptotically to something in the low thirties.
He’s really reminding more and more of Jimmy Carter by the day - someone who is well-meaning but politically immature. Which is strange because there are times when he gives precisely the opposite impression, so when things like this happen, you just don’t know what to think.
If it was just one thing, you would be right. But it’s not one thing. At first it was the initial rollout.
Next to come was the mass policy cancellations.
Next is the “sticker shock” of people who thought that ACA policies will be affordable to them and who find out they aren’t. This will be the next month or two.
Next to come is when the actual signups kick in and the system has not transmitted the particulars to the insurance companies correctly, or the payment info didn’t go through, etc. etc. That will take care of January.
Next to come will be when the newly-Obamacare-enrolled find out that after they paid their premiums, they will be responsible for actually paying for their doctor visits, up to the deductible amounts. If you think most of them are taking that into account now when they look at policies, you’re wrong. That’s Jan-Mar.
In parallel with that, they will find out that the network of doctors available to them that actually accept Obamacare-enrolled patients is very narrow, and when they call doctors to make appointments, up to two thirds of them tell them they don’t accept their policies. That’s also Jan-April or so.
And finally, some time in Sept-Oct, the insurance companies will be setting premiums for 2015, and all indications are they will have to significantly increase them, since the healthy-people-signups are going to be seriously lagging expectations. And that will take us neatly to the elections.
Approval and voting may not go together.
I agree that the worst is yet to come regarding the ACA. I am just not sure how much of the blame will be attached to Obama. He puts out the image that he is aloof, and separated from the actions within his administration. A spectator president, without his hands on any of the details.
The Democrats are clearly going to take the heat during the midterms, but it will not be Obama’s fault, by then.
Bill Clinton’s recent support for allowing people to keep their health plans was a clear repositioning to remove Hillary from any connection with ACA, except to be able to come is as a fixer.
Whatever the outcome over the next few years little of it will stick to Obama. Not a debate, just my opinion.
