This kid is still in high school. He plays other high school basketball players. He is great in high school basketball. Whats with the huge expectations that he will rule the NBA? I just don’t see how someone can be touted as a star when they haven’t even played college ball.
Let me throw some names out -
Kobe Bryant
Kevin Garnett
Tracy McGrady
The tope three candidates for MVP - None ever played college. Really great high school players can become impact players.
More names - Moses Malone, Amare Stoudamire, Jermaine O’Neal.
The main big deal is that scouts believe he has very advanced passing skills for his age and something they call court vision, meaning he can see plays develop two or three moves ahead. The idea is not so much that he’s the next Michael Jordan, breaking people down off the dribble, etc., but that he’s the next Magic Johnson. A 6’8" point guard who can run a fast break well and find holes in a half-court defense to exploit.
Supposedly, he has the skills to come into the league and be a decent point guard his first couple seasons, but then develop into an outstanding point guard with the ability to play shooting guard or small forward should the need arise.
Of course, all this is speculative. Some people don’t think he will develop into anything more than a very good player a la Houston, Sprewell, Bibby or Mashburn, but not a super-star who you can build your team around.
Reminds me back in 1977, when the local news at Michigan State was all ga-ga about this new basketball recruit named Earvin Johnson. I thought, what is the big deal? So we recruit a local kid, how good can he be? He could have easily skipped college ball and as it was we only had him for two years. The truly great players don’t need college ball, and it’s rare that the great players are willing to use the entire four years of eligibility. From all accounts, James is a starting NBA player already, I bet he’s going to own the record book in about fifteen years.
LeBron James is clearly as advanced as Kobe Bryant. If he keeps his head and doesn’t get hurt, he’ll be that good.
Sports prospects are best judged by their progress relative to their age. A left wing who scored 45 goals in the American Hockey League at age 23 is not a big deal; a left wing who scores 45 goals in the AHL at age 18 is a superstar in the making. A ballplayer who hits .305 in AAA baseball is not a great prospect if he’s 26. If he hits .305 and he’s 19, he could be a Hall of Famer. The age difference doesn’t have to be that great; if you take two prospects with identical performances, and one is 21 and one is 23, there’s a tremendous difference in their relative likelihood of success.
LeBron James, to put it simply, was at 17 years old what most basketball players don’t become until they’re 21 or 22. He’s 3-5 years advanced for his age… which makes him one of the greatest basketball prospects of the last thirty years. As Neurotik points out, he might just become Allan Houston, but if you can say about a prospect that the LOW ESTIMATE is Allan Houston, he’s a can’t miss pick. With any sports prospect you are taking a risk; with most draft picks and minor leaguers, the risk is that they’ll never pan out, and the upside is very limited. With James, the upside is “Absolute Megastar” and the likelihood of him being a bust is very low. I agree with the comparison to Magic Johnson; that’s the kind of player he is.
The fact that James is just a high schooler is kind of beside the point; the question is how good he’ll be when he’s 25. He might not be great when he first enters the NBA. Tracy McGrady struggled with the Raptors when he first entered the league. But look at him now.
You threw out 6 names, but none of them had anything close to the hype that Lebron has.
At the same time I could throw out:
Leon Smith
Tony Key
Ousmane Cisse
Korleone Young
Ellis Richardson
Taj McDavid
All declared in 1996 or later. All failed miserably so just throwing out names doesn’t mean a lot. Lebron certainly has good skills, but I still think it is somewhat dubious to assume those skills will translate to a good NBA career.
He is a pretty poor shooter. He floats on his jump shot which is not a good thing. He rarely plays anyone his size or ability. He will do so every night in the NBA. He will go from a relatively serene high school life to something vastly larger in the NBA. He will hit a rookie wall. If he indeed is put at point guard, he will enjoy a size advantage against most other point guards. However, he will have a quickness disadvantage.
I think that due to all of the outisde factors he will have to deal with above and beyond just playing the game, his rookie year will not be too productive. I also think that, in the long run, his NBA career will be something along the lines of Rodney Rogers. Certainly a good player with a momentary flash of greatness, but in the end not a superstar and not a basketball savior.
I agree with phreesh and MSU, and would add that James is the best high school player that many scouts say they’ve ever seen–better than Kobe, better than Randy Livingston. It doesn’t matter that he hasn’t played college ball–the scouts can judge him from his relative level of development, his athleticism, his (as Neurotik says) court vision and passing, his body, his mind. If there’s such a consensus that he’s great in these areas, I’m inclined to agree that he’ll be a superstar in the NBA.
But watch out for over-inflated initial expectations: Kobe Bryant played 15 minutes a game his first year, and averaged 7.6 points per game. Tracy McGrady played 18 minutes a game and averaged 7.0 points per game. And Kevin Garnett played 28 minutes per game and averaged 10.4 points per game. If LeBron James doesn’t come out of the gates next season averaging twenty points a game, there are gonna be a lot of people immediately calling him a bust. Don’t make the same mistake.
Whoops…RickJay and Mullinator snuck in there while I was writing my post. I agree with everything that RickJay said, and will point out that of the high schoolers Mullinator lists, there was no expectation whatsoever that Key, McDavid, or Richardson would succeed in the NBA–nor that they would even do particularly well in college! They simply weren’t remarkable players in any way, and everyone knew that–that’s why none of 'em even got drafted. Leon Smith had tremendous mental and emotional issues, Ousmane Cisse got manipulated by his guardian into a) declaring for the NBA way before he was ready, and b) concealing from the league (and from doctors) a serious ACL injury, and Young was never projected to be anywhere near the player that Garnett, McGrady, et. al. were.
So yeah, throwing out names kinda does mean something.
If you think the kid’s high school life has been serene–even “relatively so”–I think you’re very much mistaken.
The odds of James turning out to be Kobe Bryant are much greater than him turning out to be Rodney Rogers, IMHO.
I would disagree with this only on the basis that there are few players of Kobe Bryant’s ability but many of Rodney Rogers ability. It is impossible to tell in a 17/18 year old whether he hast he drive, ability, or growth potential to work on his game and improve himself to reach a Bryant level.
Plus, I can’t help but think that Lebron’s mom/“dad” will do nothing to help quell the coming circus.
And yes, while Lebron may have a pretty uncharacteristic high school life, it is nothing like an NBA life. He has 2 hour practices. He attends class. He lives at home. He is surrounded by friends. He doesn’t travel day after day. He plays shorter games against inferior competition. He gets press attention, but that is somewhat limited due to Ohio high school rules.
There is not one thing listed above that won’t be much different this time next year. A lot can change when a kid goes from a relatively structured environment to one of personal choice that the NBA offers. Yes, he will have mandated practices, etc but a large majority of his time will be spent as he sees fit.
Heaven help him if he ends up on a train wreck team like the Cavs. I would feel much better about his chances if he ended up on a team with veteran leadership that could help school him in the ways of NBA life. If his confidants become Darius Miles and Dajuan Wagner predominantly bad things will happen down the line.
Well, I’d rather see him in Cleveland than on the Clips. Ugh.
The thing with Lebron right now is how he will develop. He’ll enter the league, IMO, as a Darius Miles with passing skills. The question is whether he has Miles’ developmental curve or McGrady’s or Bryant’s. And that will likely be determined by who drafts him. The best thing for him would be to be drafted by Memphis and get to play with two good influences like Gasol and Battier with Jerry West as a mentor and Hubie Brown as a coach. I don’t think he can hope for anything better than that.
The only thing I question is whether he is a better draft choice than the Yugoslavian kid Darko Milicic. Apparently a PF/SM with Duncan’s fundamentals and Garnett’s perimeter game. Darko will come in with less hype than James, so it may make his development a little easier.
And lastly, I think Yao Ming was a more important draft pick than either of them. With rare exceptions, good centers equal titles and title shots. Assuming China keeps its paws off him and doesn’t mess him up and Houston convinces Francis to pass the damn ball, Ming has no real rivals once Shaq leaves. Houston becomes a power.
I’m not quite sure what an SM is in the game of basketball, by the way. I’m pretty certain I meant SF.
I agree that Memphis would be a good spot for him to land. That would be a heck of a base to build from in terms of knowledge. Memphis would also benefit from an attendance surge since they are regionally close to Ohio. Unfortunately, I don’t know if I can take Hubie Brown talking about Lebron’s upside that much. And, considering their roster of guards includes Michael Dickerson, Brevin Knight, Earl Watson, and Jason Williams I think they would have a nice little upgrade with LeBron.
I also tend to think that Yao will be winning many a title in his career (assuming the developments you mentioned.)
This article outlines fairly well why at least a few scouts think he’ll be a solid player.
Below, is the meat of the article,
The only thing I really worry about is if people expect too much too fast. I think it’d be a huge shock to most teams if he became Kobe right away.
And about the lack of jump shot, you can teach that. Heck, look at Jason Kidd.
These are what I was thinking of when I wrote the OP. I am not saying hw WILL suck, but I think that the jump from HS to MBA ball is going to be MASSIVE. He will go from playing other high school children to playing the best seasoned NBS superstars. I don’t see how people can expect anything without seeing him in a couple games.
No one saying he is going to instantly turn a franchise around. But there’s no reason to believe he’s going to completely suck. And he’ll be better the more he plays. He’ll make mistakes and he’ll get worked by the stars, but he won’t be completely in above his head and I think he’ll be better than Kwame or Curry in their first years.
But let’s get one thing straight…people are excited about his potential, not for what he’s going to do next year.
Can someone tell me what those white patches on his arm are for?
He has to cover up his tattoos to play in HS games.
Contray to the HYPE there are weaknesses to LeBron’s game, mainly on defense. This is being seen at the HS level – imagine it at the pro level.
To be clear: I would take him with the 1st pick in the draft. But I would expect an internship of several years before he ever appears in an NBA All-Star Game.
Even if Lebron is in Garnett & Kobe’s class – & here’s guessing he’s a step below – he can’t be expected to be an All-Star at least until the 2005-06 Season & I’d bet it’ll be more like ’08 or ’09 before he’s there.
Kevin Garnett averaged 10 points per game his first season (& 17 his second) it was his 3rd year before he neared 20.
Kobe (after Garnett the poster child for this HS to NBA move) had a rough start : 8 and 15 points points per game in his first two seasons
TMAC? 7, 9 & 15 his first 3 years.
Jermaine O’Neal never averaged more than 5 p/pgame for his first 4 seasons and only had his break out season in his 5th year (when he would have been a traditional NBA rookie)
Al Harrington has never averaged more than 13 points in an NBA season (& usually less than 10 points) over 6 NBA Seasons
How about last year’s crop of High Schoolers Tyson Chandler, Eddie Curry, & Kwame Brown? None are close to stardom let alone all-star status
I’d take Lebron in a haertbeat as a future star : but “the Big deal” noted in the OP is hype & Madison Avenue, ESPN & NBA marketing. The Next Michael Jordan? Maybe in circa 5-8 years
Ellis Richardson wasn’t even a star on his high school team, Poly High of LA. And that team wasn’t even good. Richardson was just a guy with a pipe dream.
Comparing him to LeBron James would be like me saying I’m going to be a great actor and win an Oscar and comparing me to Russell Crowe.
As far as the competition, James has been playing in summer AAU ball for years now, against the best high school talent in the country. Most of these kids he was playing against all these years were older than him too. He’s been playing with NBA players in informal games as well. No one has had as much hype as him in high school, and the other players who’ve had lots of hype like this (Garnett, McGrady, Bryant) are all currently being ridiculous in the NBA. It takes everyone a couple of years to get adjusted to the NBA, but James will be a superstar, no doubt about it.